ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

Will the wind shear abate soon?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

according to the advisory this morning it should have backed off already, to me it appears just as strong if not stronger. Water vapor shows the upper ridging about 10-15 degrees west, and there has been a noticeable jump in the southward intrusion of dry air to the north of the system.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=16kmgwvp&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_16KMGWVP_201309082115.GIF

I still don't see this becoming a hurricane given the present conditions. But it means some people may get their wish of a record.

disclaimer: the above post is the opinion of the poster and not official.

[brunota2003]

From my view, the center looks to be at 13.4N 25.8W, perhaps relocating there.

Follow the blue spiral NE of the convection on the microwave image...looks like it centers just south of the one island? Your coordinates are way west of that, on the edge of the reds on the image.

[cycloneye]

Will Humberto become annular?

[brunota2003]

Looks like 14.5N and 24.5W? The latest AVN image is from 20:45 UTC (about 45 minutes before that microwave image). Looking at that, and pinpointing my estimated center off the microwave image, puts the LLC on the far NE edge of the convection.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I edited the AVN image based off of my estimated center from the microwave image. This is where it comes out (Note: The AVN image is about 45 minutes older than the microwave image). Definitely, if I estimated the center correctly (which, admittedly, is very possibly wrong ), on the NE edge of the convection.

[ozonepete]

Will the wind shear abate soon?

according to the advisory this morning it should have backed off already, to me it appears just as strong if not stronger. Water vapor shows the upper ridging about 10-15 degrees west, and there has been a noticeable jump in the southward intrusion of dry air to the north of the system.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=16kmgwvp&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_16KMGWVP_201309082115.GIF

I still don't see this becoming a hurricane given the present conditions. But it means some people may get their wish of a record.

Shear is dropping and latest CIMSS analysis has it very low, in agreement with the NHC. What data tells you it appears "just as strong if not stronger"? Also that upper level water vapor can't be used to track mid-level dry air. You need to use the CIMSS mid-level water vapor chart. In any case, the dry air is remaining north of this system so far and is moving westward, not southward. So there is no interaction with the dry air so far, as evidenced by the blow-up of extremely high thunderstorm tops. The NHC forecasts the dry air to remain outside of the circulation for the next 48-72 hours. Also, don't forget to put in the disclaimer, ok?

[brunota2003]

Where do you see the center at on that microwave pass, ozonepete?

[ozonepete]

Where do you see the center at on that microwave pass, ozonepete?

I was just going to post it Bru. I look at these a lot and I'm quite sure it's where I circled it. Just look closely at the small blue circle just north of the heaviest convection.

[supercane]

SSD center estimate from above microwave:
DATE/TIME LAT LON SENSOR STORM
09/2126 UTC 13.9N 24.8W SSMIS HUMBERTO -- Atlantic

Source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mipositions.html

This location is not co-located with the deepest convection, lying on its NE edge.

This in comparison to NHC's 21Z update, which has it quite a bit farther west:
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 25.3W

[ozonepete]

Thanks supercane! That's where it is pretty much. (i.e., CrazyC83 had it pretty close, esp. on the latitude.)

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[ozonepete]

Thanks, T13. So all of our data agree on the center location. It is gradually getting under the convection as forecast. With the very low shear ahead of it and dry air remaining north of it until Thursday this has very good conditions for strengthening.

[ozonepete]

Here's mid-level dry air from CIMSS. So far none being ingested since it is hundreds of miles to the north and is moving westward rather than southward.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

:uarrow: Thanks, T13. So all of our data agree on the center location. It is gradually getting under the convection as forecast. With the very low shear ahead of it and dry air remaining north of it until Thursday this has very good conditions for strengthening.

Yep. I wouldn't be surprised to see a period of rapid intensification once an inner core becomes established either. The GFS seems to indicate this.

Here's mid-level dry air from CIMSS. So far none being ingested since it is hundreds of miles to the north and is moving westward rather than southward.

Makes sense...the storm is embedded within a large and deep moisture bubble. Relative humidity values as analyzed by SHIPS are above 75%. Dry air certainly not an issue.

[ozonepete]

Will Humberto become annular?

Too early to know. But if it makes major and gets a clearly defined eye and then moves over cooler water right around 26C as it's doing an EWR then it could happen. Not too many ifs, lol.

[CrazyC83]

09/2345 UTC 13.9N 25.4W T3.0/3.0 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

Based on that 3.0 assuming some others are still 3.5, I would think they go up to 50 kt.

[hurricanes1234]

Is the following statement somewhat realistic?
Humberto could begin to rapidly intensify tonight or tomorrow.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[brunota2003]

:uarrow: Thanks supercane! That's where it is pretty much. (i.e., CrazyC83 had it pretty close, esp. on the latitude.)

The sad part is, I was originally thinking 13.9N and 25.0W, but I changed it. Oh well Still on the far NE portion of the convection, which makes me think it isn't necessarily as well organized as originally thought. Still deep convection in the W/SW region...but that leaves the N/NE/E/SE quads almost completely convection free!

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Thanks supercane! That's where it is pretty much. (i.e., CrazyC83 had it pretty close, esp. on the latitude.)

The sad part is, I was originally thinking 13.9N and 25.0W, but I changed it. Oh well Still on the far NE portion of the convection, which makes me think it isn't necessarily as well organized as originally thought. Still deep convection in the W/SW region...but that leaves the N/NE/E/SE quads almost completely convection free!

And consequently,this delays the hurricane status classification unless it does organize quickly before 12:00 UTC on the 11th.

[hurricanes1234]

Best Track up to 50 knots!
AL, 09, 2013091000, , BEST, 0, 138N, 257W, 50, 1000, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 280, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,