ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[ninel conde]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

that tells alot. humberto faces huge obstacles even if it briefly becomes a cane. you can see the persistent trof along nw africa that has turned it nw. also, the dry air is just north of it, and to its nw is a strong upper low that appears stationary.

[ozonepete]

Beautiful outflow and banding in some of those shots from earlier.

This may be a silly question, but why, then, did the pressure rise to 995 mbar? I can't tell if it's weakening or strengthening.

You are talking about estimates. A 2mb difference in estimates is not significant. 993mb = 29.32 inches. 995mb = 29.38 inches.

[Hammy]

It appears that the weakening earlier was DMIN in addition to the dry air, as it looks like the outer bands are reforming and there has been a -80C blowup right near the circulation center, so it may be trying to reform a southern eyewall.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309102015.GIF

And is it possible that the trough to the northwest, if no more dry air mixes in, could provide a strong outflow channel?

[ozonepete]

It appears that the weakening earlier was DMIN in addition to the dry air, as it looks like the outer bands are reforming and there has been a -80C blowup right near the circulation center, so it may be trying to reform a southern eyewall.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309102015.GIF

And is it possible that the trough to the northwest, if no more dry air mixes in, could provide a strong outflow channel?

Nice observation. An upper level trough to the northwest of a northern hemisphere tropical cyclone provides good evacuation of the upper air and does aid outflow and sometimes helps an upper level anticyclone to get established, or if there is one, enhances that quadrant of the anti-cyclone. If it enhances the southwesterly outflow significantly over the northwestern quadrant it can cause a real outflow channel or outflow jet, which can cause RI.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013

...HUMBERTO REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 28.4W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

Read 11 PM Discussion here.

[hurricanes1234]

This storm should at least become 75 mph. I can't see why it wouldn't intensify, it's had the best conditions so far for any storm this year. This year has been a real mystery.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

The inner core appears to remain well established, so if strong convection returns, I agree it could rapidly intensify especially with the outflow channel. But if the inner core is disrupted, then it could go the other way.

[TheStormExpert]

This storm should at least become 75 mph. I can't see why it wouldn't intensify, it's had the best conditions so far for any storm this year. This year has been a real mystery.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm starting to have the feeling that this will be our longest lived and strongest storm of the season.

[Sanibel]

The record might be broken. Humberto is showing signs of having gulped dry and slightly stumbling.

[SoupBone]

The record might be broken. Humberto is showing signs of having gulped dry and slightly stumbling.

Can you link to something showing this?

[Andrew92]

AL, 09, 2013091106, , BEST, 0, 156N, 287W, 60, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 80, 50, 80, 1012, 400, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,
AL, 09, 2013091106, , BEST, 0, 156N, 287W, 60, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1012, 400, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,


Still a tropical storm. New record coming?

-Andrew92

[RL3AO]

I certainly don't see any weakening. In fact the banding is still very impressive, although it is a bit broken in spots. Could very easily be called a hurricane IMO.

[RL3AO]

The banding is a bit weak on the western side, which is probably the only thing keeping this from a T4.0 IMO.



Thats actually quite impressive in my opinion for a tropical storm.

[WeatherGuesser]

Unless they do a Special for some reason, I guess we'll at least tie the record unofficially.

[Extratropical94]

Sorry guys...
The only hope now is that they might not adjust the 06z Best Track data and leave it like it is in post-season analysis.

...HUMBERTO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 28.9W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

[Spin]

So we finally got our first hurricane just a few hours short of the record. This season is really trolling everyone.

Humberto looks quite good right now, with deep convection wrapping over the LLCC.



(Hotlinked because this image AFAIK doesn't change as time goes on.)

[hurricanes1234]

Well, congratulations, Humberto!

[CrazyC83]

Fooled us overnight! DMax finished the job...

[HURAKAN]

much better organized compared to yesterday

[Stephanie]

Welcome Humberto! Just stay a fish.

I'm surprised that he made a left turn. Still looks too high on the longitude to be an issue for this side of the pond.