LarryWx wrote:ninel conde wrote:06GFS has a low off the coast at 240 but it just scoots offshore. if a high were locked in and the low hung around it might amount to something. my prediction of no cane landfalls this season looks sweet.
Every run will be different especially if you're talking 10+ days out. I am just looking for trends and all signs point to much stronger ridging then we've been seeing so far this month. We shall see if it is able to lock in more, timing is always crucial when it comes to land falling systems as well.
Ninel is making a good point here. Early month GFS runs were suggesting NE US ridging locking in and dominating 9/15-22. Since then, there has been plenty of delay and now they're hedging on NE ridging taking over even during late month. As a result, the 0z-12Z GFS runs of today dropped the late Sep. SE US cyclone threat. Let's see if the modeled threat returns.[/quote]
true, and im far from impressed about how the euro says oct will be favorable for east gom. east coast landfalls. winter like pattern is setting up and the ridge just keeps getting delayed. pattern persistence says not going to happen.
as the EURO in long run.....GFS also to some extent thats 2 big boys and 1 teenager model sniffing something out in the long range. 
