Global model runs discussion

[ninel conde]

ridge almost in a blocking position as the overall pattern is going to change.

Overall pattern is going to change how? Is the ridge going to hold firm?

i think going to be changing so the east is warmer than normal in oct. ridge might be stronger but might not be in time for this possible storm.

[tolakram]

ridge almost in a blocking position as the overall pattern is going to change.

Overall pattern is going to change how? Is the ridge going to hold firm?

i think going to be changing so the east is warmer than normal in oct. ridge might be stronger but might not be in time for this possible storm.

WHY do you think this?

[ninel conde]

been shown on the euro for some time now that the pattern is changing along the east coast for late sept/oct.

[ninel conde]

further, as can be seen here

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

there is a strong GOA low developing. if that gets established it should mean warmer weather east of the rockies.

[ROCK]

that EURO run is not set in stone just yet.. but it does show what the NAVGEM and 12Z CMC have been sniffing at.....the 18z NAVGEM has this getting real close to Texas before going into SW LA....slower with the front.....

[ROCK]

ridge almost in a blocking position as the overall pattern is going to change.

Overall pattern is going to change how? Is the ridge going to hold firm?

i think going to be changing so the east is warmer than normal in oct. ridge might be stronger but might not be in time for this possible storm.

maybe JB is saying this or is this just a guess?

[Steve]

Lol Rock. I watched his Saturday show, and he has trouging in the east 6-10 days based on the WPAC teleconnection which I would agree with. But with the warm ssta's off the NE US coast, most of the troughs should be transient until we move deeper into Fall (me saying that not necessarily him). His main worry now is potential catastrophe along the central Mexican coast with a relatively slow moving Ingrid potentially pulling an overland loop. Regardless, between th energy from Ingrid and Manuel (sp) there is a lot of moisture to work with. Fortunately that isn't the most populated region of Eastern Mexico.

Fwiw, and this is for other threads, but the season is trucking along. We are now only 2ns off of average, and there is no doubt in my mind we will beat that. We also have 2 hurricanes, and I don't think we will exceed 5. As suggested last week, ACE should surge, but it doesn't make it into the mid 100s. We also got action near Bermuda and into Eastern Canada (as predicted) and additional MX/TX activity (also as predicted). Only thing I have left to hit to hit on everything are 2 storms between MS and NC. Regardless of the heat 2013 is taking for being an uneventful season, there have already been several western basin impacts, particularly the extreme SW basin. I guess that was obvious with the super hot water concentrated off of Mexico. I am still a little worried about the Caribbean later in the season. Word.

This post is not official and only represents the author.

[CourierPR]

Steve, I agree about your being wary of development in the Caribbean. The satellite view this morning shows a lot of convection in the northwest Caribbean.

[ninel conde]

0Z euro says nada.

[gatorcane]

Yes the Euro dropped the Gulf system I see - it did seem a little suspect with the track on that one.

But the GFS continues to show something forming in the NW Caribbean next weekend and then moving slowly NE. It has shown the NW Caribbean system for many runs now and the timeframe where development starts is gradually coming in which makes this more believable:

Here we are at 192 hours:


264 hours:

[N2FSU]

Touching on what gatorcane just posted. here is the 06Z GFS at 36 hrs. You can see Ingrid moving ashore, but at 51 hrs, it looks like a piece of energy moves SE back in the BOC and low pressure persists, eventually leading to what the GFS shows longer range.

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; 51hrs

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; 78hrs

[gatorcane]

Touching on what gatorcane just posted. here is the 06Z GFS at 36 hrs. You can see Ingrid moving ashore, but at 51 hrs, it looks like a piece of energy moves SE back in the BOC and low pressure persists, eventually leading to what the GFS shows longer range.

N2FSU, it doesn't look like this GFS system develops from the BOC area. It looks like it is another area of low pressure that develops east of Belize in the NW Caribbean. One thing that should be noted is that while the ECMWF dropped the Gulf system (which did develop from Ingrid's leftover energy in the BOC), it now is showing a reflection heading North in the NW Caribbean here at 192 hours (the orange you see between the Yucatan and NW Caribbean). This run of the ECMWF is actually coming into a little better agreement on the GFS NW Caribbean low scenario:

[ROCK]

0Z euro says nada.

that depends on what someone is looking for.... EURO shows overall lower pressures in the carib...also shows a front dropping down. Might block whatever the GFS is looking at in the long range...

[LarryWx]

0Z euro says nada.

that depends on what someone is looking for.... EURO shows overall lower pressures in the carib...also shows a front dropping down. Might block whatever the GFS is looking at in the long range...

As Ninel and I have been saying, it would be nice for the sake of those wanting higher CONUS tropical threat chances if higher pressures would actually stick around for awhile in/just offshore the NE US. The model consensus has been pretty abysmal in its insistence on that in many runs showing ridging there as early as today followed by later runs delaying the locked in ridging there.
Not that Ninel necessarily wants to be right as I think a threat might be preferred to break the boredom, but Ninel's bold prediction of no CONUS hurricane hits in 2013 is obviously still very much alive as of now and is starting to look rather sweet. Ninel has made some accurate calls in the past. However, there's still a very long way to go.

[WPBWeather]

0Z euro says nada.

that depends on what someone is looking for.... EURO shows overall lower pressures in the carib...also shows a front dropping down. Might block whatever the GFS is looking at in the long range...

As Ninel and I have been saying, it would be nice for the sake of those wanting higher CONUS tropical threat chances if higher pressures would actually stick around for awhile in/just offshore the NE US. The model consensus has been pretty abysmal in its insistence on that in many runs showing ridging there as early as today followed by later runs delaying the locked in ridging there.
Not that Ninel necessarily wants to be right as I think a threat might be preferred to break the boredom, but Ninel's bold prediction of no CONUS hits in 2013 is obviously still very much alive as of now and is starting to look rather sweet. Ninel has made some accurate calls in the past. However, there's still a very long way to go.

I have seen some good guesses, with the probablility about as accurate as 50/50 on the ones that have come close to being right.

[Steve]

Larry, what is your relation to Ninel? I noticed on Friday (213pm) that Ninel posted in the 3rd person giving Ninel credit For making a good point. either she must share a pc with someone else who posts here or forgot to switch aliases. I'm not trying to punk anyone, I'm trying to understand what you all are saying. What was the call for no conus hits? Was it no hurricanes, no hits after Andea? I'm curious because I think there will be at least a couple of hits going forward. Thanks.

[supercane4867]

CMC

[LarryWx]

Larry, what is your relation to Ninel? I noticed on Friday (213pm) that Ninel posted in the 3rd person giving Ninel credit For making a good point. either she must share a pc with someone else who posts here or forgot to switch aliases. I'm not trying to punk anyone, I'm trying to understand what you all are saying. What was the call for no conus hits? Was it no hurricanes, no hits after Andea? I'm curious because I think there will be at least a couple of hits going forward. Thanks.

I have no relation to Ninel other than Ninel being a fellow poster like you. I don't even no if that poster is a female or male. Ninel made a prediction of no conus 'cane hits this season based on what I've been reading here. I didn't make that prediction. Actually, I went to the other extreme and predicted the first major 'cane hit on the conus since 2005 based on the combo of a cool first half of August and what was then a neutral negative ENSO.