ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

[gatorcane]

Model runs here!

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS shows the area heading into the Big Bend Area of Florida at 159 hours heading ENE ahead of a strong trough. Area originates in the SW Gulf:

[cycloneye]

First plots.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0107 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130917 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130917 0000 130917 1200 130918 0000 130918 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 88.4W 19.2N 89.9W 19.7N 91.3W 20.0N 92.8W
BAMD 18.5N 88.4W 18.5N 89.3W 18.6N 90.5W 18.7N 91.9W
BAMM 18.5N 88.4W 18.9N 89.5W 19.3N 90.7W 19.6N 92.1W
LBAR 18.5N 88.4W 19.0N 90.0W 19.9N 91.5W 21.0N 93.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130919 0000 130920 0000 130921 0000 130922 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 94.1W 21.2N 97.1W 22.3N 99.8W 22.3N 101.8W
BAMD 19.0N 93.4W 19.7N 96.6W 20.6N 99.3W 20.7N 101.2W
BAMM 20.0N 93.6W 20.9N 96.8W 22.0N 99.4W 22.1N 101.1W
LBAR 22.3N 94.8W 25.3N 97.5W 28.4N 97.0W 29.7N 93.3W
SHIP 51KTS 62KTS 71KTS 76KTS
DSHP 42KTS 54KTS 31KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 88.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 86.8W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 85.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM 144 hours:

[supercane4867]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 30 35 42 49 54 40 31 28 27
SHEAR (KT) 18 19 17 12 8 12 1 5 3 4 1 5 4

SHIPS thinks shear will be nonexistent by 48HR and that's also what it had for Ingrid before landfall which never verified

[alienstorm]

Yes but keep in mind with Ingrid we had Manuel on the pacific side, on this one there is no indication of another system.

My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormhunter7]

Hmm... Interesting NAVGEM run from 12z this morning?



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[CrazyC83]

What a weird structure there! Subtropical storm?

[supercane4867]

00Z CMC




NAVGEM

[Alyono]

I think the system at 180 hours in the NAVGEM is NOT 95L... it is the expected development of the monsoon gyre itself next week

[ROCK]

I am so glad the 2k fellowship has embraced the new NAVGEM...

I think I started a trend....

The NAVGEM and CMC have been sniffing this for days. The GFS is still trying to latch on with its 0z run....Euro showed something similar...the caveat is the trof. If it is deep enough to pull whatever is in the BOC up and out. This ain't October. We will have to see. If the trof lifts out then probably MX..need some more guidance tomorrow...

[supercane4867]

I think the system at 180 hours in the NAVGEM is NOT 95L... it is the expected development of the monsoon gyre itself next week

It develops from the BOC at 48 hour and slowly move eastward. Can't think of anything other than 95L

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[chaser1]

I think the system at 180 hours in the NAVGEM is NOT 95L... it is the expected development of the monsoon gyre itself next week

It develops from the BOC at 48 hour and slowly move eastward. Can't think of anything other than 95L

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

Yep, my take is the same as yours. Whether or not a deep enough trough will ultimately pick up a developing Gulf system causing it to pull north or northeastward remains to be seen. It seems to me however, that those models that are indicating such a development are doing so with some festering area of low pressure that would seem to be in place over the next couple days. I would only agree that it could "not be" 95L, in the instance that 95L actually start to deepen fairly soon and this present entity continue to clearly track west to WNW. I don't see this happening and would tend to guess that this tracked vort. or potentially another that propagates northward within the larger "gyre" ultimately does become whatever develops in the southern gulf (just a couple days later though). It will then remain to be seen if the Euro jumps back on its own prior bandwagon and comes in line with the NavGem and CMC (oh my god....did I actually just say that ? LOL) Next thing we'll all be NAM watching.......

[tolakram]

Models rather incoherent as to what might happen.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

UK takes this to the coast of Mexico then turns north and rides the coast. NavGem does the Florida route, other models show no development or the low meanders in the BOC for 5 days.

[LaBreeze]

Models rather incoherent as to what might happen.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

UK takes this to the coast of Mexico then turns north and rides the coast. NavGem does the Florida route, other models show no development or the low meanders in the BOC for 5 days.

So no strong model agreement at this time?

[tolakram]

Models rather incoherent as to what might happen.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

UK takes this to the coast of Mexico then turns north and rides the coast. NavGem does the Florida route, other models show no development or the low meanders in the BOC for 5 days.

So no strong model agreement at this time?

Not with the models we have access too. The NHC uses a combination of models, some consensus plots not available to the public, and probably has an idea what model tends to perform best and worst in a given area. There's a real art to model reading, IMO, way beyond any effort I want to put into it.

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 170740
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...



SAT-TUES...THE 00Z GFS HAS CHANGED ITS TUNE DRAMATICALLY IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT NOW DEPICTS A CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALONG WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF AND EAST COAST. THIS SWINGS THROUGH A DECENT COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE LEAVING BEHIND A VERY UNORGANIZED
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A
WEAKER TROUGH AND BROADER DOUBLE BARRELED (BAROCLINIC NORTH/TROPICAL
SOUTH) AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF ON SUN WHICH THEN LIFTS
OUT IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO MID NEXT
WEEK.

BOTH SCENARIOS LOOK COMPLEX...AND THE UNCERTAINTIES IN INTENSITY AND
STRUCTURE OF ANY LOW THAT WOULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE AREA ARE
QUITE LARGE. BUT REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS FEATURE DEVELOPS...IT
APPEARS WE ARE HEADED TOWARD WETTER PERIOD FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.







SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....MOSES

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; 120hr

[N2FSU]

06Z NAVGEM; 144hr