Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather is expected in PR for the next few days with intervals of sun and showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST TUE SEP 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTH OF THE MONA CHANNEL THAT EXTENDS OVER THE CHANNEL TO THE
SOUTH WILL CROSS THROUGH PUERTO RICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS RESIDUAL
TROUGHINESS REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL ANOTHER UPPER LOW
CUTS OFF NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND MOVES OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE CHARACTERIZE
THE MID LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH BRUSHES
BY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WHEN LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
WATERS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MODEST HIGH PRESSURE FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF THE TROPIC OF CANCER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AND HAVE DAMPENED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PARTS OF THE WINDWARD PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT BREAK EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE PRESENT GFS MODEL FORECAST. THE MIMIC
PRODUCT SHOWS FLOW FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST PICKING UP MOISTURE AS
IT APPROACHES. THIS WOULD ACCOUNT FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGES
FROM 1.9 TO ALMOST 2.2 INCHES EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT LAST
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW FEATURES SERVE TO ENHANCE TROPICAL
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BANDS OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC CURVE NORTHWEST INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE LOCAL
AREA AFTER FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON WITH NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS AND
FOOTHILLS. MOISTURE DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. SOME
AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND CORES OF INTENSE
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE ACTIVE AREA...MAINLY OVER PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOONS THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. VCSH
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR DUE TO SHRA
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED UNTIL 17/12Z THEN FM THE EAST AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS. AFTER 17/16Z...SCT SHRA AND ISLD TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR OF PR LEADING TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. ALSO...VCTS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND TJPS AND TJSJ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET IN THE MORE EXPOSED
WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE
WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL
ALSO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 90 79 / 30 40 40 30
STT 90 77 89 80 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST TUE SEP 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST NEXT 24 HRS AS IT MERGES WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OVR THE WRN ATLC. A CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST OVR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAKLY
CONVERGENT WED-THU AS TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
WITH MAY TEND TO LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WED-THU. ON THU...SFC
WINDS BECOME FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING NON-
TROPICAL LOW PRES NEAR THE BAHAMAS. BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR
IN STORE FOR FRI-SAT OVR NCNTRL AND NORTHEAST PR AS MOISTURE AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. STEERING WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME QUITE WEAK AT LESS THAN 5 KT
WHICH SHOULD FAVOR VERY SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TROUGH WEAKENS AND AIR MASS GRADUALLY DRIES OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IN AND
AROUND TJMZ WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS BTWN THROUGH 17/21Z. VCSH/VCTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR
TJPS. LLVL WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE SE 18/12Z AND THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FET AND WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING SE THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 79 91 / 30 30 20 20
STT 77 89 80 88 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The afternoon showers will continue each day of this week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST WED SEP 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE...NOW NORTH OF U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND WEAKENING...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
NORTHEAST...LEAVING WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
A MID-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WATERS NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT PULL BACK QUICKLY LEAVING A CUT-
OFF LOW OVER HAITI BY MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS SCANTY EXCEPT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE
EAST OF THE AREA AS HUMBERTO MOVES NORTH. LOW PRESSURE ALSO
CONTINUES STRONGLY IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE
GROW IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND CAUSING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO SLACKEN AND OUR TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN AND
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES BUT LOWER
LEVELS ARE NOT AS MOIST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC
WATERS MOVED ONSHORE IN SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND SKIMMED ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST...OTHERWISE NO RAIN MOVED OVER MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO. SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER SAINT CROIX AND
SAINT THOMAS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWED
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS AN EAST-WEST
MOISTURE WEAKNESS PENETRATING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE MINIMUM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 2.2 INCHES EXCEPT FOR THAT
BRIEF DRYING OF LESS THAN 1.6 INCHES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY IN THE INTERIOR
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SOME OF THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER PRESSURE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING NORTHEAST THAT
WILL BRING THE RIDGE FROM THE HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME LIGHTER AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
SOUTHEAST. THIS FLOW WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND PERHAPS EXTEND AS FAR BACK AS
THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA ON FRIDAY. SEA BREEZES WILL BE
WEAKER ON THE NORTH COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND DOWNSLOPE
HEATING WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST IN THE
LOWER 90S. NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL SPELL LITTLE RELIEF FOR PONCE
AND MAYAGUEZ AS THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
THEREFORE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
LEAST MOISTURE IS STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY...BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER IN GENERAL THIS WEEK THAN NEXT AS EFFECTS
FROM THE NEXT CUT-OFF LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE SHOULD NOT BE FELT UNTIL
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...VCSH EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR
THROUGH THE MORNING. SFC WINDS FM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15
KTS. AFTER 18/16Z AFTERNOON SCT SHRA AND ISLD TSTMS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSC EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PR AFFECTING MAINLY
TJBQ AND TJMZ...VCTS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL FAVOR A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE RIDGE IS ABLE TO FORM
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. HENCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 5 FEET
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 91 79 / 50 20 20 20
STT 89 79 88 80 / 50 50 50 40

[Gustywind]

Hopefully we escape from a crash ... no report of fatalites is the good news


Landing missed on the aerodrome of La Désirade

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 234127.php

Big fright, Wednesday morning around 9:45, on the small airfield located on the island of la Désirade. For some reason remained unknown, the pilot of an aircraft made a bit academic landing as the aircraft departed the runway before stopping definitely. More fear and evil in the end, since neither injured nor damage would be regrettable.

[cycloneye]

Good news Gusty about that.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS MOVING IN AND WIND SHIFTED
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST ON
THURSDAY. DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS UNTIL SUNDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE
WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SHOWERS AFFECTED THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO LEAVING SOME AREAS WITH OVER A
HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR. SATELLITE
DERIVED BLENDED TPW INDICATED AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN
TODAY...WHICH HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WATERS IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FOR TOMORROW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AS THE
WIND FLOW...ALTHOUGH LIGHT DUE TO A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO POSITION ITSELF TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SETUP COULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO SINCE THE WIND FLOW WILL HAVE A
VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. FOR SUNDAY THINGS SEEM TO BE ABLE
TO IMPROVE A BIT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING BY EVENING WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SHOWERS REDEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CORDILLERA WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH. FOR NOW KEPT TAF
SITES WITH NO WEATHER THROUGH 19/18Z/ SFC WINDS MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 90 / 20 20 20 60
STT 79 89 80 88 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Plenty of afternoon showers will fall in PR today as a trough lingers close to the island.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK TROUGHINESS REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
UNTIL A MID-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THIS TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOVES SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. ON FRIDAY A TROUGH FROM A LOW OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CAUSES THE HIGH TO SHIFT TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND BRINGS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL
SUNDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA
EXTENDS NORTH TOWARD THE MONA PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
TODAY...MOVES NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN
MOVES NORTH...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED IN A FEW
PLACES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. A LOCAL MINIMUM IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER OCCURRED NEAR SAINT CROIX WHERE NO RAIN FELL
...OTHERWISE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS MINIMUM MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THE RICHEST MOISTURE DIVERTS AROUND PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND COMES BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL EXTEND NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
FAVOR SOME CONVERGENT FLOW AND THERE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FLOW
AND DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING ON SATURDAY.
IT IS THESE DAYS THAT THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WILL FORM...GENERALLY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINS...BUT ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY...BUT EVEN THEN...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
RETURNS TO ITS NORMAL POSITION AS AN EAST-WEST RIDGE BETWEEN 20
AND 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. SHOWERS WILL THEN FOCUS CLOSER TO
MAYAGUEZ THAN EITHER OF THE NORTH OR SOUTH COASTS. NEXT WEEK WILL
SEE A RETURN TO OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST AND INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO AND SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ISLANDS TO
THE EAST DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING HOURS EXCEPT FOR TKPK AND TNCM WHERE VFR TO
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VCTS. SFC WINDS FM THE
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. FM 19/15-20Z SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND
TSTMS WITH SCT-BKN LAYERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PR CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN SUBDUED EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7
TO 10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 92 77 / 60 20 90 30
STT 89 79 86 79 / 30 30 40 30

[cycloneye]

It was very warm today with a record breaking temperature of 95F.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST THU SEP 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...CAUSING
LIGHT WINDS LOCALLY. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...CAUSING INSTABILITY OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WHICH IN COMBINATION OF THE
ABUNDANT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED TODAY BUT NOT MUCH IN TERMS
OF COVERAGE OR INTENSITY AS OF 3 PM AST TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WERE LIMITED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. IT WAS A VERY WARM DAY TODAY AS LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAUSED A RECORD BREAKING MAX
TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WITH 95 DEGREES.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
STARTING TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS TO THE
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE STEERING WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT SO THE
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY STAY OVER ANY ONE POINT FOR
ENOUGH TIME TO CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A BETTER DAY WEATHER WISE AS MOISTURE
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AND
MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOONS
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURG THE ENTIRE
PRD. SOME EARLY MORNING PASSING -SHRA DURNG EARLY MORNING MAINLY BTW
ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARDS...BUT NO SIG FLYING HAZARDS ATTM. SFC WINDS
WILL REMAIN LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT BCMG LGT SLY AND VEERING W/HT AFT
20/14Z. AFT 20/16Z...EXPECT DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION MAINLY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN HALF OF PR TIL AT LEAST
20/21Z. AS A RESULT BRIEF MVFR/IFR COND PSBL MAINLY VCNTY OF
TJSJ...TJBQ...TJNR DURG AFTN.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FROM
TIME TO TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 77 91 / 20 60 20 60
STT 79 88 78 87 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

After the record breaking 95F in San Juan this afternoon,a heavy thunderstorm has caused flooding in the metro area. Saved loop below.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 PM AST THU SEP 19 2013

PRC021-031-033-061-127-192115-
BAYAMON PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-
411 PM AST THU SEP 19 2013

AT 405 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER BAYAMON...GUAYNABO AND CATANO MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

$$

FIGUEROA

[Gustywind]

The mists of sand are back
Thursday, September 19, 2013 - 11 h 41

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 234269.php


The mists of sand from the Sahara are present in our archipelago. The phenomenon is expected to persist over the next two days. Reminder, less than 10 micron dust may have an irritating action on the respiratory tract, causing coughing, respiratory genes of asthma, irritation of the eyes.

Since Thursday morning, the mists of sand from the Sahara are back on our archipelago. The recommendation and information for fine dust threshold has been exceeded, the average concentration over 24 hours raised to the level of the urban station of Pointe-à-Pitre and peri urban of les Abymes is large enough. The phenomenon is expected to persist over the next two days.
For the record, less than 10 micron dust may have irritating action on the respiratory tract (cough, Genoa respiratory asthma attack, irritation of the eyes). Sensitive people (infants, elderly, asthmatics, allergy, chronic respiratory deficient, heart failure) may have nasal and respiratory irritation or an increase in respiratory effects associated with dust: gene inspiration, reduced respiratory capacity, aggravation of existing respiratory diseases. So it's best to avoid physical activity and intense sports that can increase respiratory diseases by increasing the volume of air inhaled and including avoiding these activities near the roads. Light physical activities and outputs outside are not prohibited.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. An active afternoon of showers and a few heavy thunderstorms is expected in PR today as a trough lingers nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
448 AM AST FRI SEP 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO ERODE A BIT AS
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES EAST. A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S IN COASTAL AREAS.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THIS
WILL BE THE RESULT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH VALUES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR ABOVE 2.0 INCHES...DIURNAL HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS
AS A LIGHT STEERING WIND FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING
IN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ON BOTH DAYS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY...
WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...A
MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ACROSS WEST AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AS A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
TODAY. BRIEF SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJPS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
THEN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
BETWEEN 20/17Z-21Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDS IN AND AROUND TJSJ. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND
WINDS 16 KNOTS OR LESS. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT SAN
JUAN/P.R. YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 93 SET BACK IN
1995.

SEPTEMBER 2013 RANKS AS THE 6TH WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD AT CYRIL
E. KING AIRPORT IN SAINT THOMAS(IST) WITH 9.82 INCHES ACCUMULATED SO
FAR. THE WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD AT IST...SEPTEMBER 1953 WITH
14.94 INCHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 90 77 / 70 20 60 0
STT 88 78 88 79 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST FRI SEP 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...CAUSING LIGHT
WINDS LOCALLY. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH SATURDAY
OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...CAUSING INSTABILITY OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WHICH IN COMBINATION OF THE ABUNDANT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WAS ANOTHER WARM
DAY TODAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAUSED THE
MAX TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO REACH 94
DEGREES.

A CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
THE STEERING WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT SO THE SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY STAY OVER ANY ONE POINT FOR ENOUGH TIME TO
CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER AS MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY
DURING THE MORNING...BUT THEN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IS POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AND MOVES
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NEXT WEEK....SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOONS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE
MOVING THOROUGH...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO TROUGH 20/22Z. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND
TJSJ...TJNR... AND POSSIBLY VCNTY TJBQ. LIGHT AD VRBL WND AT SFC
SO EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.
L/LVL WND BLO FL050 FM THE SOUTH AT 5-15 KTS THEN VEERING BCMG FM
WEST ABV UP TO FL300. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 77 91 / 20 70 0 20
STT 79 87 78 88 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another round of afternoon showers is expected today in PR with warm temperatures.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST SAT SEP 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE
WEAKENING. TUTT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
WINDS WERE LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S IN COASTAL AREAS.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA...DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND THE
PROXIMITY OF TROUGH ALOFT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SLOW MOVERS AS A LIGHT STEERING WIND FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING LIKELY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEAST. IN FACT...MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED PRECIPITABLE VALUES BELOW 2.0 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH A LACK OF STRONG FORCING. HOWEVER...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECT AND
DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...EXPECT THE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO SUN-FRI.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE OR IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ EARLY IN THE MORNING. THEN...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO BETWEEN
21/17Z-21Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND
AROUND TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A SSW COMPONENT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND A GENTLE TO MODERATE
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 90 78 / 70 0 20 10
STT 88 78 88 79 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

On September 21 1998 Hurricane Georges made landfall in Puerto Rico causing extensive damage. Here is the radar loop when the hurricane moved over the island. Also at link below is the report about rainfall and reported winds.



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=1998_georges

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST SAT SEP 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH
OF THE REGION OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TUTT IS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE...GOOD VENTILATION
ALOFT...ALONG WITH INTENSE HEATING...AND LOCAL EFFECTS...LEAD TO
EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR AND SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE SLOW MOVERS DUE TO THE LIGHT STEERING WIND FLOW AND AS A
RESULT...MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OCCURRED IN SOME
AREAS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND WERE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER LAND. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS ALL
SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY EXPECTED A QUICK
SURGE OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A TUTT INDUCED EASTERLY PERTURBATION.
THIS MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECT AND DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. OVERALL EXPECT THE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS
TO INCLUDE THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES WITH FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO
DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOME OF
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO BETWEEN THROUGH AROUND 21/22Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJSJ AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
VCSH/VCTS AROUND THE REST OF THE TERMINALS IN PR AND THE USVI. L/LVL
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A SSW COMPONENT FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 22/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND A GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 90 / 0 20 10 10
STT 78 88 78 91 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. In general,good weather will prevail today thru the next few days in PR with only the usual diurnal afternoon showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST SUN SEP 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AS IT DISSIPATES.
TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF LOCAL ISLANDS DISSIPATES AND A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
WERE LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S IN COASTAL AREAS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AS IT DISSIPATES. AT SURFACE...WINDS
WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF LOCAL ISLANDS DISSIPATES AND A BROAD HIGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 2.0
INCHES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

AS A RESULT FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR SO...EXPECT THE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO/USVI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
AS WELL AS LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH TUESDAY AS THE DAY WITH BEST
AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DUE TO A POCKET OF MOISTURE REACHING
THE AREA.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A WETTER PATTERN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PR BTWN 22/17-21Z.
THEREFORE...EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS IN
AND AROUND TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJMZ AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR PR IN THE AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 KT OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND A GENTLE TO MODERATE
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 40 10 20 20
STT 88 78 88 80 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SUN SEP 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDED WEAKLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. FURTHER
EAST...A TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME AMPLIFIED AND SPREAD WESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION CONTINUED TO PULL
FURTHER NORTHWARDS...AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH RIDGE REESTABLISHES
NORTH OF THE AREA...THEN AND BUILDS WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT EXPECT
A RETURN OF THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW FOR THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DRYING TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE AREAS AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. SATELLITE DERIVED MIMIC PRODUCTS AS WELL AS GFS
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST DECREASING PWAT VALUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCED EASTERLY WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...AND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK A RETURN OF DRYING CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP BLOW 1.50 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR THE LONG TERM...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A WETTER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A POLAR
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS STILL
SOME WAYS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THIS PATTERN
UNFOLDS.

UNTIL THEN...AND EXCEPT FOR THAT MENTIONED FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT
THE SUFFICIENT LINGERING POCKETS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT...TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN ISOLATED AREAS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS THAT MAY AFFECT PARTS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME
OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR TIL 22/21Z...
THEREFORE...POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WITH AFTN CONVECTION.
ESPECIALLY VCNTY TJBQ AND TJMZ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 23/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...OVERALL TRANQUIL SEAS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS SET AT SAN JUAN
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS TIED THE OLD RECORD
OF 94 SET BACK IN 1999.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
STT 80 90 80 89 / 20 20 30 30

[Gustywind]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SUN SEP 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDED WEAKLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. FURTHER
EAST...A TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME AMPLIFIED AND SPREAD WESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION CONTINUED TO PULL
FURTHER NORTHWARDS...AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH RIDGE REESTABLISHES
NORTH OF THE AREA...THEN AND BUILDS WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT EXPECT
A RETURN OF THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW FOR THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DRYING TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE AREAS AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. SATELLITE DERIVED MIMIC PRODUCTS AS WELL AS GFS
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST DECREASING PWAT VALUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCED EASTERLY WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...AND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK A RETURN OF DRYING CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP BLOW 1.50 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR THE LONG TERM...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A WETTER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A POLAR
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS STILL
SOME WAYS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THIS PATTERN
UNFOLDS.

UNTIL THEN...AND EXCEPT FOR THAT MENTIONED FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT
THE SUFFICIENT LINGERING POCKETS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT...TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IN ISOLATED AREAS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS THAT MAY AFFECT PARTS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME
OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR TIL 22/21Z...
THEREFORE...POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WITH AFTN CONVECTION.
ESPECIALLY VCNTY TJBQ AND TJMZ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KT OR LESS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 23/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...OVERALL TRANQUIL SEAS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS SET AT SAN JUAN
LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS TIED THE OLD RECORD
OF 94 SET BACK IN 1999.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
STT 80 90 80 89 / 20 20 30 30

Again a record Luis ! Waouw that's very hot The year of all the records in PR given my untrained eyes, ohohoh....

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A weak Tropical Wave will move thru PR tonight and Tuesday bringing scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST MON SEP 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL HELP
TO ESTABLISH A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
MOST OF THE WEEK. AN EASTERLY WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. GENERALLY
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF DRY
AIR OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE PWAT ANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A FEW ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REACH THE
MAXIMUM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
DROP BELOW 1.50 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE RIDING IN ON
THE TRADES WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BY THE SAME TIME...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...CAUSING SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. TIMING MAY
CHANGE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT PR AND USVI TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OR TWO IN AND
AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ AFTER 23/16Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT TKPK AND TNCM IN PASSING SHOWERS. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE
OF AN EASTERLY WAVE. NO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS...AS SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AND WINDS OF 5-15 KT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY...SEPTEMBER 22ND...AT 4:44 PM AST FALL
OFFICIALLY STARTED...WHEN THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX TOOK PLACE.

SEPTEMBER 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 6TH WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON
RECORD AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/SAINT THOMAS WITH 9.82 ACCUMULATED
SO FAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 90 80 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 83 89 82 / 20 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST MON SEP 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL HELP
ESTABLISH A PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION TROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER AN EASTERLY WAVE/PERTURBATION
WITH AXIS CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS EARLIER TODAY...WILL BRING
A SMALL SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WEAKLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARDS INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO MAINTAIN
A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT. FURTHER EAST...A TUTT WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME AMPLIFIED AS IT RETROGRESSES WESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED
AND SUGGESTED A SLOT OF MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH A TONGUE TO HIGHER PWAT VALUES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH
THE PRESENT LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND PWAT VALUES DOWN TO AROUND
1.70 INCHES...STILL EXPECT DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS
OF THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIMITED AND OF SHORT DURATION....WITH A RAPID DECREASE IN
CLOUD AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY BY SUNSET.

OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE APPROACHING PERTURBATION WILL BRIEF SURGE
OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO IN MORNING HOURS AND THEN INTO WEST AND NORTHWESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS OVERALL DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND PROMOTES
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EACH
DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A WETTER PATTERN DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A LONG
WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CAUSING VERY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS STILL
SOME WAY OUT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO
UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION....FEW SHRA/ISOLD -TSRA STILL PSBL OVR W INTERIOR SECTION
OF PR TIL 23/21Z...THEREFORE BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN PSBL DRUG
THAT TIME. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS FCST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FCST PRD...WITH ISLD-SCT PASSING -SHRA/SHRA
MAINLY OVER LOCAL WATERS BTW EASTERN PR AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
DRUG THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EAST WINDS OF 5-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL BLO
FL250.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE.PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 90 / 20 20 20 20
STT 80 90 79 90 / 40 40 30 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR today as a weak wave moves thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST TUE SEP 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE/PERTURBATION CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT.
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWED EARLY THIS
MORNING AN AREA OF HIGH PWAT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY
WAVE/PERTURBATION OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES. IN ADDITION...IR IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR DATA HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. SO FAR THIS MORNING...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FELL OVER
VIEQUES ISLAND...WHERE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED UP TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS WAVE/PERTURBATION WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF DRIER AIR
REACHING THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF LOW MOISTURE CONTENT AND A
RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT
THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY BE
DEPENDENT ON INCOMING MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES BUT THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND REGIME MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUD BUILD UPS OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES
TO THE FORECAST AREA AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL
PR AND USVI TAF SITES TODAY...AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WITH PASSING SHRA AT JSJ/IST/ISX IN THE MORNING...AND
SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND JMZ/JBQ AFT 24/16Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE.
OVERALL...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 89 79 / 20 0 10 10
STT 89 82 90 82 / 20 10 20 10