00z GFS has a Carolina hit...

[wow]

GFS pulls a Floyd on Isabel, bringing her near the FL coast, then moving NNW, then comes up to the outer banks and rakes the EC.

This trends toward the latest trop models with the shift to the right. Florida may actually get spared! As for the rest of the SE, it's not looking too good right now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_252m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_264m.gif

[floydchaser]

This strengthens the view that the GFS should not be given much, if any credence, for its forecasts, until it gets data ingested from the storm into it. It's solutions have been all over the place. Euro, GEM, UKMET, and GFDL have been more consistent with this storm (though they have certainly had their shifts), and I would give more attention to them at this point.

[floydchaser]

It should be noted, however, that the envelope on Issy, on the GFS, has narrowed. I mentioned earlier that the storm had it going into Nova Scotia, only to 36 hours later forecast it into Cuba. Now we may be seeing the northern extent into the Outer Banks. Hence, the GFS trend may be for somewhere between NC and FL. Anyone examining the GFS should pay more attention to the ensemble runs to see what the general consensus is.

[wow]

Agreed. I've pretty much settled on a hit between FL and NC, as most models show this. i am also afraid that she will begin to strengthen further when she starts to track WNW again, as this is a common occurance with 'canes tracking thru the area.

[Guest]

Well the 00 now looks like the 18 did the other night :o ! Either way this is why we are all gonna have to give it another couple days or so to determin who may get what along the eastcoast.....................Just know that she is looming out there and looks very Poed and i for one wouldnt wanna be in her way!...........................