Global model runs discussion

Frank2 · #6541 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 9:41 am

It'll probably disappear in one or two model runs...

Amazing how the IR looks this morning over this part of the world - it looks more like January out there...

Frank

#6542 Postby **N2FSU** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 9:42 am

00z GEM; 144 hr; 1009mb low off Panama is area to watch

#6543 Postby **N2FSU** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 9:43 am

00z GEM; 192hr

#6544 Postby **N2FSU** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 9:45 am

00z GEM; 240hr

blp · #6545 Postby **blp** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 9:56 am

It is interesting that the models are hinting at possible development in the MDR and SW Carribean in the mid to long range now on several runs. It is 2013, so I will wait for a few more runs to see before I get focused in.

ninel conde · #6546 Postby **ninel conde** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 10:44 am

Frank2 wrote:It'll probably disappear in one or two model runs...

Amazing how the IR looks this morning over this part of the world - it looks more like January out there...

Frank

very winterlike.

#6547 Postby **Fego** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 10:58 am

Hey, tell me your secret. I'm already confused :-)

. GFS, ECMWF, CMC and NAVGEM, with some differences in time and place, agree with a MDR development. Who knows, may be...

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Hurricaneman · #6548 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:05 am

Frank2 wrote:It'll probably disappear in one or two model runs...

Amazing how the IR looks this morning over this part of the world - it looks more like January out there...

Frank

The thing is last year right before Sandy happened it looked very similar to this with little to no convection in the Caribbean and like a light switch convection formed and Sandy moved into the history books as one of the worst hurricanes in NEUS history so the moral of the story is there may not be any convection there now but by next week it could be a different animal especially with the way the model runs for next week have been portraying this area

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weatherwindow · #6549 Postby **weatherwindow** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:17 am

Blown Away wrote:
00z GEM shows a TS near Keys in 240 hours...

06z GFS has closed low near/over Cuba in 240 hours...

It's something, I guess...Bears watching due to time of year...GEM also showing possible TS in Central Caribbean...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

Good morning, BA...interestingly enough, the 00Z GFS suggests a similiar evolution with a tropical low developing in the southwest Caribbean moving N to the Fla Straits at 240hrs. Thereafter, it deepens slightly off the east coast of Fla moving NNE. Certainly a classic late season evolution if it were to verify...Grtz from KW, Rich

Bocadude85 · #6550 Postby **Bocadude85** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:24 am

Frank2 wrote:It'll probably disappear in one or two model runs...

Amazing how the IR looks this morning over this part of the world - it looks more like January out there...

Frank

The GFS has been showing this system since 6z yesterday.

Hurricaneman · #6551 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:27 am

The 12zGFS seems to try to pop this at 144hrs east of Houndoras

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#6552 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:45 pm

Fego wrote:Hey, tell me your secret. I'm already confused . GFS, ECMWF, CMC and NAVGEM, with some differences in time and place, agree with a MDR development. Who knows, may be...

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12z GFS has this over PR but is 16 days ahead so is real fantasy.

Frank2 · #6553 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:52 pm

We'll have to see if the TWC folks start to mention the 144 hour models, but of course that far out it's bound to change...

alienstorm · #6554 Postby **alienstorm** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:55 pm

Models are now backing off this development - probably another dud

#6555 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:49 pm

At this rate, next favorable MJO would be around the second week of October? Of course, the shear and dry air also come into play...

#6556 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Sep 24, 2013 6:38 am

9.24.13 00z GEM showing a low moving out of the Caribbean and over SFL...

YouTube · #6557 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:42 pm

What do you make of this? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/i ... 7&prod=irn

That's a lot of energy that will make its way out in to the Atlantic over the next few days to weeks - lasting in to October. Perhaps a few more bullets left in the barrel? Looks pretty active to me.

#6558 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:01 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:What do you make of this? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/i ... 7&prod=irn

That's a lot of energy that will make its way out in to the Atlantic over the next few days to weeks - lasting in to October. Perhaps a few more bullets left in the barrel? Looks pretty active to me.

Hi Mark. I have the topic for that front disturbance designated as Pouch 42L. It would be a big surprise if suddenly the MDR turns active after a lackluster August and September. The models so far are not bullish on anything developing from Africa but you never know what mother nature has instored for the next few weeks in the basin.

#6559 Postby **chaser1** » Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:18 pm

Blown Away wrote:

9.24.13 00z GEM showing a low moving out of the Caribbean and over SFL...

12Z GEM run today and........ "GEM FAIL"! No developing storm in the W. Carib to be seen.....

YouTube · #6560 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:51 pm

Overall, I would tend to think that perhaps, just perhaps, that energy over Africa would head west for quite a few days and possibly come to life in two weeks or more in the western Caribbean. Look at the next small peak coming up near Oct 10th as a clue - it's there for a reason, maybe not applicable during this abysmal season but that secondary peak may take advantage of these pulses of energy. Time will tell.

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