2013 EPAC Season

[supercane4867]

Models develop nothing after Manuel

Not even the CMC

[Hurricaneman]

Models develop nothing after Manuel

Not even the CMC

I think that massive dry air is going to keep a lid on that basin

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

Models develop nothing after Manuel

Not even the CMC

Maybe it's shutting down for the year?

[hurricanes1234]

Models develop nothing after Manuel

Not even the CMC

Maybe it's shutting down for the year?

It is possible, if there's absolutely nothing right now to indicate the development of another tropical cyclone here in at least 2 weeks, and there is an incredible amount of dry air and lack of disturbances, then I most certainly believe that this could be it, at least for September. I don't believe this Pacific hurricane season will produce any major hurricanes, simply because of 2013's hostile conditions and lack of this and that. I personally think this is the least active season here in years, concerning the ACE. Here are the statistics which make me think so:
1. No major hurricanes as of mid-September
2. No hurricanes since early August (Henriette)
3. Majority of storms are weak, especially recent ones. They rarely exceed 50 mph.

A prominent factor that tells something is not right, is that incredible mass of dry air in the basin. I don't expect much more from this season here.

The above is only my opinion of this season. It is NOT an official forecast or outlook.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane4867]

EPAC can produce intense hurricanes well into October just this year doesn't seem to be promising at all

I think we may still get a few more hurricanes for the rest of season with nothing very strong

[hurricanes1234]

No posts for a while! Does anybody else think the season in the Pacific is done? If so, feel free to share your thoughts on this thread.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

If the MJO shifts towards EPAC, will it somehow "clear" the dry air? When MJO pulse propagates east away from WPAC, it may do something to increase activity in the region, though there are no indications on the MJO shifting eastwards anytime soon based on model outputs.

[Cyclenall]

Hurricane Manual takes the cake for the most strange tropical cyclone of 2013 thus far, completely whacked. The NHC near the end had no idea what to forecast and just did nowcasting and the ups and downs with intensity. Just odd.

No posts for a while! Does anybody else think the season in the Pacific is done? If so, feel free to share your thoughts on this thread.

Its done for me at least. I don't have an itch to track anything else from this dried up wasteland.

[euro6208]

i got an eerie feeling we might see another storm...a major hurricane...next month..

[Yellow Evan]

If the MJO shifts towards EPAC, will it somehow "clear" the dry air? When MJO pulse propagates east away from WPAC, it may do something to increase activity in the region, though there are no indications on the MJO shifting eastwards anytime soon based on model outputs.

Yes.

[Yellow Evan]

i got an eerie feeling we might see another storm...a major hurricane...next month..

I have a feeling we'll see a hurricane near Mexico next month. Not sure about a major.

We'll either end here or see 1 more hurricane IMO:

Which makes it either: 15/7/0 or 18/6/0

[supercane4867]

18Z GFS ensemble has a disturbance from ITCZ start to develop at day 8



Become a TS in fantasy range



Notice something also in the western caribbean, this maybe indicative of a future MJO pulse

[hurricanes1234]

This might be the same area south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. I do think it will form, but it most likely would be a weak TS. Wait, is it showing a westward track? Then it means we're not finished yet with those open water fishes like Gil and Henriette.

By the way, I saw the joke with "TS in the fantasy range".

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane4867]

Very interesting little swirl there

[Kingarabian]

Brought lots of rain for us today

[supercane4867]

12Z ECMWF shows a Cat 2

[supercane4867]

It appears to develop from part of monsoon trough near Panama, not much going on there right now

[hurricanes1234]

I am a bit tired of these model predictions that only fizzle out when the time approaches. If this were some other season, I would have taken more notice of it, but everything so far in 2013 has been overestimated by the models, so I just see it right now as another one of those model systems that just become weak tropical storms. I am not saying that this is one of those, but conditions are very favourable at first, causing the models to predict stronger systems. Then suddenly, the system fails to develop, and/or unfavourable conditions abruptly set in. I will keep an eye on future runs, but I am certainly not going to get hyped, unless the forecast of the same Category 2 persists for up to 72 hours prior to the storm's formation. The preceding was just my opinion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Is this 92E?

It's not everyday you see the Euro forecast a Category 2 Hurricane... If all pans out, we could see our first major Hurricane.

(See personal disclaimer above)

[supercane4867]

Is this 92E?
It's not everyday you see the Euro forecast a Category 2 Hurricane... If all pans out, we could see our first major Hurricane.

Definitely not 92E

Remember Ivo was forecasted by Euro to hit Baja as a hurricane but only became a low end TS