8th typhoon of the season... and strengthening...
WTPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 20W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 113.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 113.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.7N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.7N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.9N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.3N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.0N 101.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 113.6E.
TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM EASTWARD OF DA
NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM EASTWARD OF DA
NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
INDICATES THAT TY 20W HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS PERSISTED AND
DEEPENED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE THE
SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED TO THE WEST DISPLAYING QUASI-STATIONARY
MOVEMENT. A 281004Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY
WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND RADAR
IMAGERY FROM PADDLE ISLAND, CHINA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 55 TO 77
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 20W CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR)
HAS BROKE DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE REBUILDING STR. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE STR BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES TO THE EAST. TY 20W WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. TY 20W WILL THEN
MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 AND WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 90NM SPREAD BY TAU 48 ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. DUE TO THIS CONTINUED TIGHT
AGREEMENT, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
interesting discussion from KNES...
H. REMARKS...MICROWAVE SUITE SHOWS SMALL CLUSTER OF VERY STRONG
CONVECTION VERY NEAR THE CENTER OR JUST WSW OF THE CENTER THAT HAS BEEN
SLOWLY PROGRESSING W. THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG WITH ALMOST FULLY
SURROUNDING BANDING OF SIMILAR DEEP CONVECTION IS LEADING TO A VERY
LARGE AREA OF CMG CLOUD TOPS WHICH EMBEDS THE LLC MORE THAN .8 DEGREES
FOR A DT OF 5.0. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATION IS CLOSE BUT COULD
BE FURTHER EAST... THE DT IS REJECTED PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING BANDING
METHOD (USING IR AND SWIR THOUGH THE OVERSHOOTING TOP) WOULD BE 1.2 ON
LOG10 AND EVEN PLUS WHITE ONLY YIELDS 4.5. MET IS LIKEWISE REJECTED AS
IT IS A BIT LOW AT 4.0. PT IS 4.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.