ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[fwbbreeze]

looking at the latest visible shot, it sure looks like the anti-cyclone atop Karen is expanding west. Outflow still looks good even though the cloud tops are warming a bit.

[tolakram]

llc off coast now. she is looking good.

I'm getting another impression. Looking at both the visible and IR it appears the MLC may have been blown off to the east. Convection near the LLC is certainly diminishing at the moment.

saved loop



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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurriGuy]

IT STRENGHTENED

[HurriGuy]

NHC moved the base of the cone west, but the kept the weekend track the same. Interesting.

[LaBreeze]

She's getting a little bit of breathing room now.

[Dean4Storms]

LLC is not stacked yet with the MLC, mid level shear from SW the culprit. Still could see some better gradual organization as the shear just isn't so strong as to completely tear this apart.

[adam0983]

Does anyone think that Tropical Storm will be a stronger storm at 11am this morning? Just an opinion not a forecast.

[robbielyn]

NHC moved the base of the cone west, but the kept the weekend track the same. Interesting.

that bodes well for west coast of florida with the system further away then hooking a little right. my weekend may be saved afterall.

[tolakram]

Does anyone think that Tropical Storm will be a stronger storm at 11am this morning? Just an opinion not a forecast.

Advisory is out and they did increase the strength.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 031438
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

KAREN CONTINUES TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT SHEARED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 20 OR SO KT OF SHEAR
ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON SEVERAL BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS IN
THE 50-55 KT RANGE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT. WITH MODERATE SHEAR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SOME
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT
THE STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. KAREN SHOULD BE INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE BY DAY 4 AND
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL A RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN 330/10.
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONINS HAS NOT CHANGED...AS KAREN WILL MOVE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE EAST/WEST SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. NOTE THAT A STRONGER STORM WOULD
LIKELY MOVER FARTHER EAST...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO TAKE A TRACK FARTHER WEST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 22.2N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 23.8N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 25.4N 89.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 26.9N 89.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 28.2N 89.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 31.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[xironman]

When the plane was coming in at 26K ft the winds were mainly 5-10kt with some 15kt. I think it is more of a case of coming off land interaction and it needs to reorganize over water


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurriGuy]

Okay....I am not buying that dry air is working its way into the system. Weather Channel was hinting at that.

Also...looking at a 36 hour sheer forecast, GFS has very minimal sheer in the Gulf. Anyone care to share their thoughts.

Even the 48 hour sheer forecast in not terribly strong and this storm is supposed to be here by Saturday.

[tolakram]

Pretty good 19 frame live loop. Speed up for full effect.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=19

[tolakram]

Okay....I am not buying that dry air is working its way into the system. Weather Channel was hinting at that.

Also...looking at a 36 hour sheer forecast, GFS has very minimal sheer in the Gulf. Anyone care to share their thoughts.

Even the 48 hour sheer forecast in not terribly strong and this storm is supposed to be here by Saturday.

Where is here? You can put your location in your profile and it will show up in your posts, under your name.

The latest GFS shear maps show moderate shear in the gulf as the storm moves north. Of course shear forecasts are rarely accurate.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013100306&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

[HurriGuy]

I see cloud tops are bursting to the north and west of the main convection. Is this thing reconsolidating more to the west now. Cause I am looking at visible and RGB and there is an impressive spin away from the convection.

[Steve]

>>I was wondering what some of the more experienced posters on the board would think of the likelihood of Karen shifting to the Western most side of the cone? What would cause Karen to take a more western path? Is this plausible?

I think it's unlikely to come in anywhere west of Hancock County, MS. The shape and timing of the trough would be what would allow a further west move or a pulse of the subtropical ridge, the periphery of which is what Karen is moving around. I don't see it personally.

This post is NOT official.

[Aric Dunn]

LLC is not stacked yet with the MLC, mid level shear from SW the culprit. Still could see some better gradual organization as the shear just isn't so strong as to completely tear this apart.

Yeah, once it begins to move more in the direction of the shear it will have a chance to strengthen

[Aric Dunn]

And who knows.. the way the seasons been.. it may end up being pulled under the convection/reform... or go poof lol

[HurriGuy]

I'll say one thing ......the easterly winds are coming in nice and providing great fuel. I love looking at NASA satellite at that spiked outflow.

[deltadog03]

Agreed Aric….The SW orientation of the Shear could keep this on more of a northerly path into the GOM and keep it closer to the GFS track and have a 55-65kt storm at landfall. I think the euro needs to be given less weight right now because its weaker solution is starting to loose traction. The SW shear *could* actually help keep it vented if its orientated right.

[HurriGuy]

Anyone care to chime in on the approaching front. I get the sense that Karen is ahead of pace than the front.