ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145351
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#741 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:22 am

Saved image of center exposed.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

monicaei
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 4:58 pm

#742 Postby monicaei » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:23 am

Howdy from South La! How close does the front need to be to cause the storm to turn?
0 likes   

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#743 Postby xironman » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:24 am

I that frame you can it finally start to wrap clouds around to the south of it. Only been back over water for about 12 hours so far. All the east convection is a sideshow.
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5467
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re:

#744 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:26 am

Dean4Storms wrote:12z GFS maybe a tad stronger and into FL Panhandle near Panama City. Not backing off!


Really?? Well, maybe Aric was right and the center is starting to move more northward, thus helping to mitigate the southerly shear. Just now am seeing the beginnings of a couple small towers maybe going up near the center; will be important to see if these simply get quickly blown off or if this were the beginning of renewed convection. I'm skeptical though; we're past a point in this storms development, where this is simply a diurnal process and are now approaching a "max" period. "Convectively speaking" there's a reason Karen looks the way it does as compared to last night & into early this a.m., and it certainly isn't largely due to land interaction. Heck we've seen depressions form over the N. Yucatan before.
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#745 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:29 am

Well to be fair, the GFS does have this as current intensity/a bit weaker but, instead of poofing it, like euro, it strengthens it a bit and heads NE. Now, I wonder if some of the GFS strength is coming from baroclinic help…
0 likes   

User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1298
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

Re:

#746 Postby robbielyn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:30 am

Dean4Storms wrote:12z GFS maybe a tad stronger and into FL Panhandle near Panama City. Not backing off!

My son has all the fun. He's from panama city.
0 likes   
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting. :D

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#747 Postby xironman » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:31 am

When a storm moves into the Yucatan it is still able to pull moisture in from the very warm waters to the south, while just north of the Yucatan is usually a cools spot. Once north it is pulling in air that has been over land for a while. Just about every storm that I have seen traverse it in the area Karen did takes a while to get its act together.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re:

#748 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:32 am

deltadog03 wrote:Well to be fair, the GFS does have this as current intensity/a bit weaker but, instead of poofing it, like euro, it strengthens it a bit and heads NE. Now, I wonder if some of the GFS strength is coming from baroclinic help…


quiet possible.. but typically the GFS would elongate the system its not do that here.. not until after landfall..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#749 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:33 am

very true Aric, it looks like its fairly symmetrical at landfall with the GFS. so another Global model duel…hmmmm ***USUALLY*** the euro wins these things, but GFS has done pretty good with the pattern lately
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re:

#750 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:35 am

monicaei wrote:Howdy from South La! How close does the front need to be to cause the storm to turn?


Not very. It's not the front that is going to produce the turn, it's the southwest winds aloft well in advance of the front which should turn Karen NNE-NE prior to landfall.
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5467
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re:

#751 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:36 am

monicaei wrote:Howdy from South La! How close does the front need to be to cause the storm to turn?


The front can still be hundreds of miles further north and west, because the storm would potentially be turning as a result of the mid level winds in the Gulf of Mexico that would be starting to steer more westerly in response to AND well ahead of the approaching front. On the other hand, if Karen weakened to a blob of rainy squalls it might not turn towards the east as soon....or even until after reaching your area. Hopefully if all that happened was getting some breezy conditions, minor beach erosion, and a risk of some minor flooding.... at least that would be far better than a strong organized storm approaching.

Simply put, the closer Karen were to try and make it to the Louisiana coast, the more likely it would be severely weakened.
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: Re:

#752 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:37 am

wxman57 wrote:
monicaei wrote:Howdy from South La! How close does the front need to be to cause the storm to turn?


Not very. It's not the front that is going to produce the turn, it's the southwest winds aloft well in advance of the front which should turn Karen NNE-NE prior to landfall.


Wxman, has your opinion changed any at all today? Still thinking the same as far as intensity and landfall location?
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10146
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#753 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:57 am

Image
Meanwhile, the cloud tops are warming and doesn't look as good on the IR compared to earlier... Structurally better and IMO Karen won't live up to the predictions...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#754 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:59 am

maybe the EURO, CMC, NAM, NAVGEM were on to something regarding intensity.... :D
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#755 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:02 pm

I noticed both the FIM9 and 8 both have this still more toward LA before the hook back to the NE. The FIM9 had this developing and headed toward the upper Gulf Coast back when all the other guidance was either not developing it and/or heading it for SW Florida.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#756 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:02 pm

Now 27 good frames of the live visible loop. Motion looks to be a steady N/NW best I can tell. Recon will be there shortly.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-88&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=27

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

#757 Postby Steve » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:02 pm

Meanwhile, outer band is showing up off the N Gulf Coast. Should be squalls for all concerned over the next couple of days.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php
0 likes   

Airboy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 439
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 10:41 am

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#758 Postby Airboy » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:03 pm

Looks like some convection is forming near the center again
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#759 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:04 pm

Recon again on its way!
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#760 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:05 pm

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests