Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather will prevail this weekend with intervals of sun with scattered showers as a trough lingers to the north.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST FRI OCT 4 2013


.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE REGION AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY BEFORE
PULLING SLIGHTLY LIFTING FURTHER NORTH AND GRADUALLY FILLING LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD SURFACE TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND INDUCED EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
MOIST TROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT WILL
ALSO HELP ENHANCE EARLY MORNING AND DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE TUTT IS EXPECTED
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND WILL THEREFORE HELP INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS EACH DAY WHILE MAINTAINING UNSTABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL...AND LATEST
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. ENHANCED NOCTURNAL AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION INFLUENCED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT AND A
WEAKLY INDUCED EASTERLY PERTURBATION CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS MAY EXPERIENCE
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING PARTS
OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. OVER THE WEEKEND...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL AS REFLECTED IN
GFS MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHICH WERE TO REMAIN
AT OR NEAR TWO INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY LESSER AMOUNTS OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TODAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF
THE ISLANDS EACH DAY BUT SO FAR NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 04/16Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS MANY SECTORS OF PR COULD PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS
AT TJMZ AND TJBQ AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 04/16Z AND 04/21Z. VCSH/VCTS
IS LIKELY BUT ALSO TEMPO SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND TJPS AFTER
04/17Z. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...LLVL WIND WILL BE MAINLY FM THE
EAST TO E-SE AT 5-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL MARINE HAZARDS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND NEAR SHORE WATERS
OF NORTH AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 50 20 60 30
STT 89 79 88 79 / 50 30 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
213 PM AST FRI OCT 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATED
DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WEST
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BRING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY WILL DISSIPATE
DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL DIG
SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE...EVERY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO.

IN ADDITION...A MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WIND WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
LATEST 12Z SJU-GFS MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE OVER 2.0 INCHES MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND THETAE VALUES AT 700MB
WILL BE AROUNG 335K.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NW PR WILL CONTINUE TO AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL AROUND 04/21Z. VCSH/VCTS IS LIKELY BUT ALSO TEMPO
SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND TJPS AFTER 04/17Z. THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LLVL WIND WILL BE MAINLY FM THE EAST TO E-SE AT
5-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 89 / 20 60 30 40
STT 79 88 79 89 / 20 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

Bad weather has arrived to most of Puerto Rico tonight with flood advisories being issued.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
936 PM AST FRI OCT 4 2013

.UPDATE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...STILL STATIONED OVER
HISPANIOLA...GENERATED A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO OUR NORTH
NORTHWEST THAT MOVED INTO OUR LOCAL MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER PUERTO RICO AFTER THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
HAD MOVED OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
OVER THIS AREA WAS RICH AT 2.28 INCHES...SO VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WERE SPAWNED. ADDITIONALLY WIND GUSTS OF
UP TO 37 MPH WERE RECORDED AT THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND RADAR
INDICATED THAT THESE GUSTS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREAS THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE GFS DID POORLY IN FORECASTING THIS EVENT AND IS
STILL WELL BELOW THE POPS PREDICTED BY THE NAM5 FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AND EVEN SUNDAY. THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS FOR ALL THESE
PERIODS OUT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH TIMING OF FIRST SHOWERS
UNCERTAIN...HAVE NOT RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR SAN JUAN ALTHOUGH WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS HIGHER VALUES MAY BE SEEN. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY STALL NEAR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND AND MAY
EVEN RETURN OVER PUERTO RICO LATER THIS WEEKEND. AGAIN LOCAL URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN THE RICH MOISTURE THAT
THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS...ALTHOUGH THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE BEST
MOISTURE WAS SEEN AT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NW PR WILL CONTINUE TO AT
TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL AROUND 04/21Z. VCSH/VCTS IS LIKELY BUT ALSO TEMPO
SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND TJPS AFTER 04/17Z. THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LLVL WIND WILL BE MAINLY FM THE EAST TO E-SE AT
5-15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OR
POSSIBLY REVERSE. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 33 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE MOST ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR
WILL ALL ACTIVE AREAS. SEAS IN GENERAL...HOWEVER...SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE CULEBRINAS RIVER HAS CRESTED BUT WILL TAKE
ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE IT DROPS BELOW FLOOD STAGE DUE TO THE
RAINFALL APPROACHING THE AREA. OTHER RIVER IN PUERTO RICO APPEAR
TO BE REACTING SLOWLY AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD TONIGHT. RAIN
AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Rain is the word to use this weekend as a combination of a trough and Tropical Wave will cause plenty of rain in PR and adjacent islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST SAT OCT 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS CONTINUED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INDUCING A FAIRLY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHILE MAINTAINING UNSTABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BROAD SURFACE TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FURTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE JUST
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH AXIS NEAR 58 WEST WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY.
THE WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND ENHANCED CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE AND ALSO EXTENDING
INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTED AREAS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MOIST EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ALONG
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LINGERING TUTT WHICH IS ALSO FORECAST
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO HELP PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VENTILATION ALOFT...AND THEREFORE ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL...AND DID IN FACT SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR YESTERDAYS LATE EVENING EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH OCCURRED
IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY WAS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS SCENARIO ALLOWED FOR THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
TO RAPIDLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARDS AND AFFECT PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS.

FOR TODAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...EXPECT MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS AND WIDESPREAD...DO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE LOCALIZED AND FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR...AND NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO TO INCLUDE
PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. SOME ACTIVITY WILL BE EXPLOSIVE
AT TIME AND MAY PRODUCE MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL AS STRONG
CONVECTIVE DOWN BURSTS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT TISX...TIST AND TNCM WITH PERIODS OF MVFR UNTIL AT LEAST
05/13Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS MANY SECTORS OF PUERTO RICO
COULD PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ
BETWEEN 05/16Z AND 05/21Z. VCSH/VCTS IS LIKELY BUT ALSO TEMPO
SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND TJPS AFTER 05/16Z. THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO
E-SE AT 5-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN GENERAL SHOULD REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS WITH
PREVAILING WINDS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 17 KNOTS OF LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 78 / 70 40 70 40
STT 89 79 89 79 / 50 50 70 60

[msbee]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

The rainy pattern will start on Sunday and last thru Mid Week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST SAT OCT 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN
SOME SPOTS AROUND PUERTO RICO. SURFACE WINDS HAS BEEN VARIABLE
TODAY...WITH SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A
GENERAL TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...DUE TO A MID TO UPPER
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA WAS
BELOW 2 INCHES IN LATEST 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING. DAYTIME HEATING HAS
NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO AS SEA BREEZE HAS DOMINATED THE LOCAL AREA. AT 230 PM...THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SO FAR WAS 87 DEGREES AT THE AIRPORT.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS LOCATED WEST OF
THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AND MONDAY. THIS WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS BEING DELAYED TODAY ACROSS PR
AND COULD PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR AT TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 05/19Z AND
05/21Z. VCSH/VCTS IS LIKELY AT TJSJ AND TJPS BUT ALSO TEMPO
SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE AFTER 05/19Z. THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND REMAINS FROM THE SSW AT 5-10 KNOTS AND
VARIABLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE SE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 78 88 / 40 70 40 50
STT 79 89 79 89 / 50 70 60 60

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been issued for Martinica due to a risk of strong showers and tstorms.

http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/sp ... e_2007.php

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_ma.pdf

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A wet pattern will stay in the Eastern Caribbean area at least until mid week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 AM AST SUN OCT 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS TUTT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH IS SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BROAD
FIELD OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...
AND WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. IT WILL THEN MERGE
WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANALYSIS DEPICTED EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN REGION TO INCLUDE THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OR REPORTED
OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FEW PASSING SHOWERS WERE
HOWEVER OBSERVED MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WERE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY AND WERE
OF SHORT DURATION.

PREVIOUS TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE LATEST GFS
LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER BOTH SUGGEST PWAT VALUES NEAR TO OR
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES AS THE MOIST EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUE TO
INJECT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...EXPECT LESSER DYNAMIC INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF LOCAL TERRAIN...SEA BREEZES AND DAYTIME
HEATING. UNDER THE PRESENT LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW BELOW 800
MILLIBARS...AND THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES ABOVE...EXPECT THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT FORM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TO BE STEER TOWARDS THE NORTH AND
EAST AND THEREFORE AFFECT PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD OCCUR IN ISOLATED SPOTS AND OF SHORT DURATION.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BRING ADDITIONS MOISTURE TO THE REGION...WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS MOISTURE/PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE. THIS HOWEVER SHOULD NOT
COMPLETELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN ISOLATED
AREAS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA UNTIL 06/16Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS MANY
SECTORS OF PUERTO RICO COULD PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
AT TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 06/16Z AND 06/21Z. VCSH/VCTS IS LIKELY
BUT ALSO TEMPO SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND TJPS AFTER 06/16Z.
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE EAST TO E-SE AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
MARINE HAZARDS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
AT LEAST THROGUH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 78 / 50 30 50 40
STT 88 78 89 80 / 30 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE LATER THIS
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

2 PM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N26W
TO 6N27W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 21W-31W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SUN OCT 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...NOT QUITE AS MUCH CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ON THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AS ANTICIPATED. BUT CLOUDS ARE STILL LIMITED ENOUGH
SO SOME SURFACE WARMING AND RESULTING INSTABILITY STILL POSSIBLE.
LITTLE WIND FLOW BELOW 300 MB SO MOST SHOWERS WILL STAY INLAND.

TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER JUST
EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...
2.51 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ON 12Z SOUNDING AT GUADELOUPE
(TFFR). STILL...LIMITED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES. GFS SHOWS HIGH 1000-700 MB THETA-E (OVER 340K) ARRIVING
INTO ST. CROIX TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER...THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH
OVER PR LATER ON MON FOR NUMEROUS CATEGORY ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

GIVE OR TAKE A TENTH OF AN INCH...PRECIPITABLE WATER TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT WEEK. BUT WESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER
JET LEVEL WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RATHER QUIET. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH TO SEE IF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH THIS WEEK
TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT. SO FAR...THAT APPEARS TO
BE A NO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES UNTIL 06/19Z.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BRING VCSH THEN TSRA TO TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM
06/19Z UNTIL AROUND 06/21Z REDUCING VIS AND VRB WINDS. VCSH/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND TJPS AFTER 06/18Z UNTIL AROUND 06/22Z. THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AND
SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO SE.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND CORRESPONDING LOW SEAS. BUT
WIND/SEAS WILL BOTH BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 78 88 / 20 50 10 30
STT 78 89 79 89 / 40 40 50 50

[msbee]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 20% / 40%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Invest 98L is now up. The forecast by the models is to track WestNorthwest and not reach the islands but the tropics always are full of surprises so let's watch it until is definitive it will not threat any island.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2351 UTC SUN OCT 6 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982013) 20131007 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131007 0000 131007 1200 131008 0000 131008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 27.2W 10.2N 29.3W 10.9N 31.2W 11.4N 33.2W
BAMD 9.5N 27.2W 10.4N 29.5W 11.7N 31.6W 13.2N 33.2W
BAMM 9.5N 27.2W 10.2N 29.5W 11.0N 31.5W 11.6N 33.3W
LBAR 9.5N 27.2W 10.5N 29.7W 11.7N 32.2W 13.2N 34.4W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131009 0000 131010 0000 131011 0000 131012 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 35.3W 13.5N 40.9W 15.5N 47.2W 17.1N 52.9W
BAMD 14.8N 34.7W 18.4N 37.0W 21.3N 36.3W 20.9N 33.6W
BAMM 12.3N 34.8W 13.6N 38.8W 15.3N 43.3W 17.3N 47.6W
LBAR 14.6N 36.4W 17.0N 39.4W 20.1N 41.7W 22.6N 42.0W
SHIP 52KTS 56KTS 51KTS 52KTS
DSHP 52KTS 56KTS 51KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 27.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 8.9N LONM12 = 24.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 20.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Gustywind]

Invest 98L is now up. The forecast by the models is to track WestNorthwest and not reach the islands but the tropics always are full of surprises so let's watch it until is definitive it will not threat any island.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2351 UTC SUN OCT 6 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982013) 20131007 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131007 0000 131007 1200 131008 0000 131008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 27.2W 10.2N 29.3W 10.9N 31.2W 11.4N 33.2W
BAMD 9.5N 27.2W 10.4N 29.5W 11.7N 31.6W 13.2N 33.2W
BAMM 9.5N 27.2W 10.2N 29.5W 11.0N 31.5W 11.6N 33.3W
LBAR 9.5N 27.2W 10.5N 29.7W 11.7N 32.2W 13.2N 34.4W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131009 0000 131010 0000 131011 0000 131012 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 35.3W 13.5N 40.9W 15.5N 47.2W 17.1N 52.9W
BAMD 14.8N 34.7W 18.4N 37.0W 21.3N 36.3W 20.9N 33.6W
BAMM 12.3N 34.8W 13.6N 38.8W 15.3N 43.3W 17.3N 47.6W
LBAR 14.6N 36.4W 17.0N 39.4W 20.1N 41.7W 22.6N 42.0W
SHIP 52KTS 56KTS 51KTS 52KTS
DSHP 52KTS 56KTS 51KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 27.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 8.9N LONM12 = 24.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 20.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Good point Cycloneye, we shoud keep an eye on that as the season has not ended and is far from that. Be on your guard islanders.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The pattern of scattered showers moving thru PR will prevail at least until mid week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST MON OCT 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND A TUTTI LOW NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST MID WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF THE REGION NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD REACHING THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITATELY WATER
ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATELY WATER VALUES
IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION TO INCLUDE THE LOCAL AREA. IN FACT...TASK 07/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 2.22 INCHES WHILE THE LATEST GFS LAYERED
PRECIPITATELY WATER SUGGEST PWAT VALUES NEAR TO OR EXCEEDING TWO
INCHES AS LONG AS THE MOIST EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUE TO INJECT
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. GFS COMPUTER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THESE RELATIVELY HIGH VALUES OF PWAT WILL PERSIST
UNTIL AT LEAST MID WEEK. THESE VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
SPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DAYTIME HEATING INTERACT
WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL TUTTI LOW NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
IN PRECIPITATION TODAY. UNDER THE PRESENT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
UP TO 700 MILLIBARS...AND THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT...EXPECT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT FORM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TO BE STEER TOWARDS THE
NORTH AND EAST AND THEREFORE AFFECT PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM TAFB AND SATELLITES PICTURES DEPICTED A
SLOW MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. THE BROAD FIELD OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
PROPAGATE SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TIL 07/14Z. HOWEVER EXPECT
SCT-BKN L/LVL CLDS BTW FL020-FL080 W/PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS OF OFFSHORE ATL N OF PR AND EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. LGT AND VRB SFC WNDS TIL 07/14Z BCMG SE AT 5-10
KTS EXCEPT FOR WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THEREAFTER. AFT 07/15Z...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT W/ISOLD-SCT SHRA OR ISOLD TSRA IN AND AROUND
TJNR...TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ TIL AROUND 07/22Z. LGT SRLY WNDS OF 5 KTS
OR LESS IS FCST BLO FL100 BCMG FM W AT 10-20 KTS AND INCR W/HT ABV FL150.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET AND
WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS
AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 50 10 30 40
STT 89 79 89 79 / 40 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO down to 30%.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LATER THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO up to 30%/40%

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO 10
MPH.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST MON OCT 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE WEAKENING. TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WERE NOTED OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST AT 12
MPH OR LESS WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AS SOON AS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS...SPREADING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO THE
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO CANT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THE PROXIMITY OF
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...
SPREADING TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TOMORROW...URBAN FLOODING
LIKELY.

A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR...WEST AND
NORTHWEST PR WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TJBQ AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ UNTIL 07/22Z. THIS ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LESS THAN 15 KT BLO FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH A SMALL
NE SWELL REACHING THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 77 88 / 20 30 20 40
STT 79 89 79 88 / 50 50 50 50