Typhoon Fitow landfall in a few hours...
WDPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM NORTH OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER THAT CONTINUE TO UNRAVEL AND BECOME
MORE SHALLOW. HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN VERY
STRONG EVEN AS THE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL HAS DIMINISHED. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ON CLOSELY-SPACED RADAR
AND POSITION FIXES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES A WEAKENING
TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 05
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY FITOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR WENZHOU, CHINA, JUST BEFORE TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TY 22W WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED CHINESE TERRAIN, DISSIPATING
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. NUMERIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
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