Possible development in the Caribbean

[gatorcane]

I think it is time to pull the trigger on this thread. The GFS, CMC, and FIM models show development somewhere in the Caribbean next week. There is no real consensus on intensity or where/when this system forms but right now we have

GFS - Western Caribbean
FIM - Central Caribbean
CMC - Eastern Caribbean.

It appears that that the instigator could be the tropical wave heading west in the South-Central Atlantic as seen on this surface analysis:



Below is a saved VIS animation GIF showing the wave heading west in the South-Central Atlantic with some good convection popping and cyclonic turning already evident:

[boca]

Instead of next week I think you mean next June.I honestly think we are done with this dude of a season. I'll be surprised if something forms in the Caribbean.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Instead of next week I think you mean next June.I honestly think we are done with this dude of a season. I'll be surprised if something forms in the Caribbean.

Nahh! I'm sure we'll see something out of this. I'm thinking up to Olga or Pablo this year. We might finish in December.

[ConvergenceZone]

Because the models have been so horrible and dead wrong this year, I'm not even paying attention to them at this point...... "Show me the money" as they say

[CrazyC83]

Models never caught Lorenzo though...

[Hurricane Alexis]

I'm thinking that if this forms it will most likely be the last storm with a slight chance of a subtropical storm in November in the open Atlantic. Westerlies are already dipping too south and the upcoming front won't help.

[Gustywind]

Because the models have been so horrible and dead wrong this year, I'm not even paying attention to them at this point...... "Show me the money" as they say

Don't play money with hurricane, you could lost all that money in a hurry More seriously, chances seems more than slim, but as usual with Mother Nature we never know. Let's keep a small eye.... in case of.

[northjaxpro]

I'm thinking that if this forms it will most likely be the last storm with a slight chance of a subtropical storm in November in the open Atlantic. Westerlies are already dipping too south and the upcoming front won't help.

I agree. I think it is just about time to close the book on one of the lamest tropical seasons in recent memory in the Atlantic Basin, unless you live in Mexico.

[Hurricaneman]

well the 0zGFS seems to start a bit of development around day 7 but doesn't really start any appreciable development until day 11 so the fact that the models are seeing some form of development between 7 and 8 days makes this a possibility and one more thing to note is the vertical instability seems to be increasing which it hasn't done all year

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

perfect pattern for development in west carib. newfoudland wheel.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

[Sanibel]

Nothing obvious yet.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS showing a storm in lala land...

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC back to showing development in the Eastern Caribbean. Here is how the run ends at 240 hours.

But this storm is originating from another tropical wave further east than the one mentioned at the beginning of this thread.

[blp]

I think something is going to get going down there. Take a look at latest MJO forecast it has become more aggressive for Zone 1 for the first week of November. If that forecast holds there will be too much upward motion to stop development even in this type of year. We have not seen a MJO like that this year in our basin. We may not see anything major but I expect something to get going.

[Hurricaneman]

It could be anything from nothing to another hurricane like Wilma the latter being very unlikely but a formidable tropical storm wouldn't surprise me especially with a strong MJO pulse and higher than normal instability which this season hasn't had up until recently

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF is picking up on the same area the CMC is picking up on
You can see the dark orange shading in the Eastern Caribbean at 168 hours:

[Hurricaneman]

12Z ECMWF is picking up on the same area the CMC is picking up on
You can see the dark orange shading in the Eastern Caribbean at 168 hours:

http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/7686/z8ud.gif

The GFS also develops this area and has it at the NE tip of Houndoras while the CMC develops the same area and sends it towards Puerto Rico so what we have is consensus on development but have no consensus on where this will go so if you go by the model runs it could landfall anywhere from Puerto Rico to Houndoras but we may have to wait until Monday to have a more definitive idea on possible landfall

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

The 12Z FIM model continues to go with the development with development in the Western Caribbean. Here we are at 168 hours. Note it seems the CMC and GFS have dropped development in this timeframe and are latching onto something else in the long-range (maybe from the MJO pulse):

[gatorcane]

The GFS and CMC seem to be latching onto the area of disturbed circled below now as a candidate for development somewhere in the Caribbean. In the previous runs they were trying to develop the same wave the FIM is developing which is wave on the far left-hand side of the image which is further west:

Not sure which area of disturbed weather is the one that develops in the Caribbean (if any) but there are too many model runs to ignore showing some kind of development in the Caribbean in the long-range (not to mention the Caribbean is climatologically favored) so for sure we should keep an eye on the Caribbean as we head towards the end of October and early November.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS continues to show the Caribbean system. It develops a broad and large low around 10 days from now: