Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

The models or model in this case (ECMWF) is hinting at the POSSIBILITY of S. Florida seeing its first major cold front mid-late next week. The GFS is showing the usual weak and pathetic slight cool downs we've been seeing so far with these frontal passages.

My question is which model is better (ECMWF or GFS?) and has a good record of succeeding in a situation like this? Also does the weather pattern were currently in support a solution such as the ECMWF?

[Hurricane Alexis]

The models or model in this case (ECMWF) is hinting at the POSSIBILITY of S. Florida seeing its first major cold front mid-late next week. The GFS is showing the usual weak and pathetic slight cool downs we've been seeing so far with these frontal passages.

My question is which model is better (ECMWF or GFS?) and has a good record of succeeding in a situation like this? Also does the weather pattern were currently in support a solution such as the ECMWF?

According to the Miami NWS it depends on the evolution of a low in the western Atlantic.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW AND
QUICKLY MOVES IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST
OF THE CAROLINAS AND PUSHES A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD PUSH A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE OTHER FRONTS THIS YEAR...WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING A FEW DEGREES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

[NDG]

The models or model in this case (ECMWF) is hinting at the POSSIBILITY of S. Florida seeing its first major cold front mid-late next week. The GFS is showing the usual weak and pathetic slight cool downs we've been seeing so far with these frontal passages.

My question is which model is better (ECMWF or GFS?) and has a good record of succeeding in a situation like this? Also does the weather pattern were currently in support a solution such as the ECMWF?

According to the Miami NWS it depends on the evolution of a low in the western Atlantic.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW AND
QUICKLY MOVES IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STREAM EAST
OF THE CAROLINAS AND PUSHES A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD PUSH A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE OTHER FRONTS THIS YEAR...WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING A FEW DEGREES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

The Euro has dropped its crazy idea of the deep trough becoming somewhat cutoff and deepening in the eastern US and a big snow storm event for that area, which it did not make sense to begin with because of the positive NAO and AO regime we have been in, these shots of cold air have been very progressive across the eastern US which as usual do not make it as far south into FL, and next week's Arctic intrussion for the central and eastern US could be yet another good example of a big disparity in temperatures across the state of FL with possible lows in the upper 20s across the I-10 corridor in northern FL while lows only in the 50s across the I-4 corridor and lows only in the upper 60s in SE FL for Thursday morning as the winds switch immediately off the Atlantic Ocean during the day Thursday.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, you are absolutely right NDG. Still in a positive AO/NAO phasefor the time being. The cold snap coming up next week will be very brief, although temps could reach the freezing mark or slightly below across portions of the panhandle and the Big Bend region by Thursday morning.

[gatorcane]

Yeah I saw that the ECMWF backed off from the noreaster it was showing several days ago. That would mean less cool air intrusion into Florida.

[gatorcane]

Reading the NWS extended forecast discussion it looks like there might be some big changes on the way this week as far as cooler temperatures here:

BUT NEXT MAJOR FORECAST UPDATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY REFLECT
BIGGER CHANGES DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[NDG]

I have no idea what are they talking about possible big changes, MOS guidance still shows temps only falling to near 70 degrees to upper 60s across SE FL for Thursday morning, the only difference is that the cooler air will filter down more to SW FL this time with the temps and or dewpoints falling into the 50s that morning. Snowbirds have to be loving this positive AO & NAO pattern regime we have been in

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/get ... A&sta=KPBI

[northjaxpro]

Strong cold front has passed through Northeast FL and the northerly winds are howling. Right now, winds are blowing sustained at 25 mph and I had a wind gust of up to 37 mph this past hour. Tempcurrently 54. 2 degrees and falling. Should be well down into the 40s after sunrise. Cold, windy conditions later today with temps only expected to reach into the middle 50s for max temps under strong cold air advection.

[northjaxpro]

Bottomed out at 42 degrees this morning. Tight gradient continues as brisk northerly winds funneling down from the big modified Artic High centered over Arkansas currently. Cold air advection in full force and max temps only expected to reach the mid 50s at best.

Winds will veer more northeast late today into tonight as the Arctic High moves east into the SE U.S. This will spare the Jax area from a light freeze tomorrow morning. Expecting upper 30s in areas in Jax away from the coast and the Saint Johns River. However, interior areas west of Jax (Suwannee River Valley and Big Bend) will see winds fall off enough for temps to drop to or slightly below the freezing mark.

The moderation trend begins quickly as the cold High Pressure will move out into the Atlantic on Thursday and the return flow will get us back up to near 80 by Sunday. Looks as if an upper level disturbance will develop across the SE GOM on Friday and move across the peninsula Friday night into Saturday, increasing rain chances this weekend. This will move out by midday Sunday.

Also, it appears another cold shot is on the way as the models show another modified Polar air mass coming down from Canada, similar to the current cold snap we are experiecing. This will arrive by the middle of next week.

[NDG]

Thanks to the positive NAO and AO as expected the winds changed off the Atlantic very quickly, keeping all of the I-95 corridor (except for parts of the Jax area) very mild during the night, only slight cool drainage occurred in west central and SW FL.
Had the AO and NAO been negative we probably would had been dealing with temps well into the 30s across central FL and parts of S FL this morning.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I see a decent NAO/AO dip after the 18th. Will see if it holds with the models.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml

[NDG]

What a nice dry season we are having in east central FL

[gatorcane]

It's good living in South Florida when I see what is going on with these very chilly temps across the rest of the country.

[NDG]

Ready for the 36 hrs shot of colder air for central and southern FL?
This will be the coldest central FL will get this season so far but what has been the norm so far the winds will start switching off of the Atlantic by Thursday night and the moderating will begin very quickly, back to the 70s by Friday into the weekend

Even MLB mentions this:

[quote]AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
338 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THANKSGIVING DAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...QUICKLY SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MID-ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY...BEFORE BEING REINFORCED BY A SECONDARY HIGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE WEEKEND. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
START OFF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO WHAT HAS
BECOME THE DEFAULT PATTERN OF LATE...BREEZY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE ON THURSDAY WILL REINTRODUCE ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED ATLANTIC SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AFFECTING
COASTAL AREAS FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS

THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE FLOW REGAINS ITS ONSHORE
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND/MID-UPPER
60S BREVARD/TREASURE COAST BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, so far the pattern has been for the Polar Highs to build down into the U.S. , but they shift eastward rapidly instead of building southward toward the Gulf coast. Therefore, the return flow off the Atlantic quickly moderates the air mass across the peninsula.

This pattern has saved us from reaching the freezing mark so far at my locale. The coldest it has been here to this point was 39 degrees back on November 14.

Getting some heavy rain this morning as abundant moisture is surging ahead of the GOM Low moving northeast today. Should see rain amounts of 1-2 inches in areas across north Florida through tonight. Cold Front will move through tomorrow and the next brief cold shot will arrive just in time for Thanksgiving. Highs on Thanksgiving Day only expected to reach the mid 50s, with mins in the upper 30s. The Polar High will be already sliding east by late Thursday night, with the northeast flow setting back in keeping my area from getting a freeze. Only the interior areas across the Suwannee River Valley and over SE GA will see temps get at or to near freezing.

[cycloneye]

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
846 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
NORTHERN GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 915 AM CST/1015 AM EST/

* AT 844 AM CST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEAR OVERSTREET...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DALKEITH...HONEYVILLE...WEWAHITCHKA...CHIPOLA CUTOFF...RED HILL...
WILMA...LEWIS AND KERN

[cycloneye]

[northjaxpro]

Picked up just under 3/4 of an inch in round 1 of a wave of rain and storms that has moved through the region. Round 2 will move in the area late today and tonight as the cold front approaches the region. Severe storms have already occured across the panhandle region, as cycloneye pointed out above Tornado Watch in effect for that region currently. I would not be surprised to see the watch area shift eastward late today into tonight as the dynamics are definitely in place into tonight across the north peninsula for possible severe weather to occur up until the front passes through the area late tonight or early Wednesday.

The strong cold front will bring in a extremely tight west-northwest wind gradient into the region all throughout the day on Wednesday. Strong cold air advection will keep temps in the 50s all day Wednesday, and the winds will make it feel even colder. Just checked the latest indications and projections from the models and it appears that I may see the first freeze of the Fall/Winter of 2013-'14 on Thanksgiving morning. The modified Polar High axis this time may get close enough to the region to allow the wind to get light enough to get temps to drop at or slightly below freezing across north Jax and interior areas away from the St. Johns River. The Big Bend and Suwannee River basin regions may drop down wel into the upper 20s. I will monitor this closely.

It will remain cold on Thanksgiving Day here with highs only reaching the mid 50s, but the winds will be lighter compared to Wednesday with the modified Polar High axis closer to the area. But, this will be another brief cold shot as the Polar High axis will shift east during Thursday and the flow will become onshore Thursday evening. Thus, the moderaton trend will begin Thursday night/early Friday and continue into the weekend.

[cycloneye]

Tornado Watch expanded that includes the city of Tampa.

Code: Select all

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

TORNADO WATCH 576 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-003-007-017-023-029-041-047-053-057-065-067-075-079-081-
083-101-103-105-115-119-121-123-125-270300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0576.131126T2005Z-131127T0300Z/

FL
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA              BAKER               BRADFORD
CITRUS               COLUMBIA            DIXIE
GILCHRIST            HAMILTON            HERNANDO
HILLSBOROUGH         JEFFERSON           LAFAYETTE
LEVY                 MADISON             MANATEE
MARION               PASCO               PINELLAS
POLK                 SARASOTA            SUMTER
SUWANNEE             TAYLOR              UNION
$$

[northjaxpro]

Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving everyone! The first freeze of the Fall/Winter of 2013-14 has occured at my locale this morning with light northerly wind just below 10 mph. Currently it is 30.2 degrees just before 6 a.m. May see another degree or two drop up until after sunrise.

Temperatures all across the northern peninsula range from the upper 20s to the low 30s except for areas near the coast and around the St. Johns River where temps are hovering just above freezing.

It will remain cold for today as a 1032 mb modified Polar High axis currently centered over Mississippi will shift eastward during the day today and will continue a northerly to eventually a northeast wind flow by tonight. Winds today will be much lighter than yesterday as the High pressure axis is closer to the region and the gradient has relaxed. Max temps today will only reaching the mid 50s.

This cold spell will be brief as the modified Polar High will begin to shift east beginning tonight and the return onshore flow will moderate temps quickly. No freeze is expected on Friday morning as lows will only get to the upper 30s across my locale to near 50 at the coast. Highs will rebound back to near 70 by the end of this holiday weekend. There is a small chance of showers on Saturday as a coastal trough may develop and could bring showers along the coast.

Happy Turkey Day everyone and enjoy!!! Gobble Gobble!!!