Texas Fall 2013

[joshskeety]

18z NAM is just coming down now.. Time to see...

[weatherdude1108]

There were apparently too many comments on one thread for me to add to Portastorm's comment yesterday. Anyway, yeah, I'm slacking on my Ewx postings.

What was weird, is I was about to post yesterday, then I got kicked off the site(?). I couldn't get back on the rest of the day, from either the desktop or mobile(?). Anyway, I'm back again! Looking like an interesting pattern change coming up within the next 24 hours! Who would know since my car thermometer said 79 degrees at lunch today. Here is this morning's long-term discussion from Ewx (not the Weather Channel).

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP GOOD RAIN CHANCES IN OUR
FORECAST. WILL ALSO HAVE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SLEET ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
ON EXPOSED SURFACES INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...BUT DO NOT
THINK THIS IS LIKELY AT THIS TIME. CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO BE MAINLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.
STARTING TUESDAY SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
RISE.

[gboudx]

:uarrow:

All I want to know is when does Mr. Cavanaugh go on shift?

That's the forecast discussion I want to read right now.

It appears he hasn't written an AFD since Sunday afternoon. Hopefully he comes back to writing this weekend.

[CaptinCrunch]

The 12z GFS seems to suggest more towards the current forecast of the NWS which is more towards the sleet/ice for the western counties of the metroplex and maybe some sleet towards the end of the event late in the evening Sunday for the whole metroplex.. The GFS skew's are most definitely warmer and show a warm nose all the way up to the Oklahoma border where I stopped checking..

Once again, 2 models showing vastly different things, but so far according to the DFW meteo's they are sticking with their forecast so obviously they are hedging their bets with the GFS over the NAM..

The NAM seems to suggest even sleet/snow as far south and east as Tyler and Paris Texas.. Not sure if I can buy that just yet for myself.. Either way, Im going hunting this weekend regardless of the weather.. I'm kind of hoping for a break in the weather Saturday into Sunday so the birds will fly..

The guys over at the NWS here in FTW (at least the overnight and morning crew) tend to favor the GFS models while the afternoon crew will side more with the NAM. I favor the NAM over the GFS since the GFS is just historically bad with these type of events.

Not that I think this will be an all snow event (I want to at least see the 18z NAM before I start spouting it anyway) it just burns me up when they should know how bad the GFS is with Blue northers to begin with, especially this early in the season.. But when I saw the 12z NAM this morning I immediately went into the mode of thinking there is just no way they can ignore it or at least discuss it.. Instead the discussion at 11:00 AM was.. "Forecast is in line from last run" BS... Then at 12:01.. uhhh Front is coming in faster than expected.. Always seems to start that way...

If you look back at Mondays GFS runs, it was calling for cold temp and wintery precip across NTX. The GFS does a good job of forecasting events several days out, it just sucks at forecasting anything within a 72 hour window.

[dhweather]

Front is actually just crossing Childress.. About 2 hours faster than predicted. If this holds true it would be in DFW by 6-7PM..

NAM saw this, GFS didn't.. So far...

If I had a dollar for every time the GFS underestimated an early season Arctic airmass, I'd be able to buy y'all a nice steak dinner. This shouldn't surprise anyone around here.

Time to keep an eye on the 500mb vorticity progs from the models and compare from run to run.

No doubt - the GFS does a really poor job with these.

[Portastorm]

Plainview (KPVW) dropped 10 degrees in 40 minutes with fropa and their winds went from north at 10 to north at 25 mph gusting to 33 mph. Bbrrr!

I've texted Portastorm Junior, who is a college student at Texas Tech, to report back to Portastorm Senior when the front rolls through KLBB.

[joshskeety]

The guys over at the NWS here in FTW (at least the overnight and morning crew) tend to favor the GFS models while the afternoon crew will side more with the NAM. I favor the NAM over the GFS since the GFS is just historically bad with these type of events.[/quote]


Not that I think this will be an all snow event (I want to at least see the 18z NAM before I start spouting it anyway) it just burns me up when they should know how bad the GFS is with Blue northers to begin with, especially this early in the season.. But when I saw the 12z NAM this morning I immediately went into the mode of thinking there is just no way they can ignore it or at least discuss it.. Instead the discussion at 11:00 AM was.. "Forecast is in line from last run" BS... Then at 12:01.. uhhh Front is coming in faster than expected.. Always seems to start that way...[/quote]


If you look back at Mondays GFS runs, it was calling for cold temp and wintery precip across NTX. The GFS does a good job of forecasting events several days out, it just sucks at forecasting anything within a 72 hour window. [/quote]

Oh, I get it.. But it seems the NWS either wants more proof of the NAM (Which could be and we are far enough out that the change would be insignificant to the public) However, I just like to bit** about it because for 12 hours now it seems to me that the NAM has had a better handle on this, and the 12z showed a full on snow event from Ftw to Waco to Austin westward, not some light icing as they keep trying to state.. But again, the 18z will be able to see if the trend continues or the NWS is correct..

[joshskeety]

Wow.. Front just went through Chickasaw 35 mph winds and temp dropped like 17 degrees in 2 minutes.. It was 72 now, its 55 now..

[Portastorm]

I think that you have to ask yourself why is the NAM forecasting such a snow event? Well, because the NAM is thinking this cold core upper low will stay intact and be a strong one. That will create an atmospheric profile, vertically, which would support snow for those underneath the low as it moves across the state. These upper lows are hard to forecast, joshskeety, and I don't think NWSFO Dallas/Fort Worth wants to go "all in" just yet until they see more model support. I actually would do what they're doing.

OK, I see that wxman57 is here now. He'll set us all straight!

[joshskeety]

Sorry.. Chickasha, Oklahoma...

[gboudx]

This is one of those fronts I hope comes through my area before it gets too late. My wife would think I'm nuts, but I want to go stand outside and wait for it to come through. Only if the Saints are blowing out the Falcons at that time though.

[joshskeety]

:uarrow:

I think that you have to ask yourself why is the NAM forecasting such a snow event? Well, because the NAM is thinking this cold core upper low will stay intact and be a strong one. That will create an atmospheric profile, vertically, which would support snow for those underneath the low as it moves across the state. These upper lows are hard to forecast, joshskeety, and I don't think NWSFO Dallas/Fort Worth wants to go "all in" just yet until they see more model support. I actually would do what they're doing.

OK, I see that wxman57 is here now. He'll set us all straight!

Oh, I stated that before as well.. However, I wouldn't just ignore my major models either, I would at least give myself a way out meaning, here is what we think, but there is this other model idea and it usually does better with these events, etc..

Granted, we are talking about discussions, not forecasts.. I understand you can't waiver on them, but I would like to see their full thoughts, not robot talk.. Thats my beef..

[downsouthman1]

:uarrow:

I think that you have to ask yourself why is the NAM forecasting such a snow event? Well, because the NAM is thinking this cold core upper low will stay intact and be a strong one. That will create an atmospheric profile, vertically, which would support snow for those underneath the low as it moves across the state. These upper lows are hard to forecast, joshskeety, and I don't think NWSFO Dallas/Fort Worth wants to go "all in" just yet until they see more model support. I actually would do what they're doing.

OK, I see that wxman57 is here now. He'll set us all straight!

Too much is at stake if they jump all in already this early. But it would be nice for them to at least consider the NAM.

[joshskeety]

:uarrow:

I think that you have to ask yourself why is the NAM forecasting such a snow event? Well, because the NAM is thinking this cold core upper low will stay intact and be a strong one. That will create an atmospheric profile, vertically, which would support snow for those underneath the low as it moves across the state. These upper lows are hard to forecast, joshskeety, and I don't think NWSFO Dallas/Fort Worth wants to go "all in" just yet until they see more model support. I actually would do what they're doing.

OK, I see that wxman57 is here now. He'll set us all straight!

Too much is at stake if they jump all in already this early. But it would be nice for them to at least consider the NAM.

BOOM! Thank you sir..

[Kelarie]

Can you give me input on what the weather situation looks like for Texarkana? Thanks!

[Portastorm]

Can you give me input on what the weather situation looks like for Texarkana? Thanks!

Time frame, please?

[joshskeety]

So far through 24h the NAM has the exact same positioning as it did on the low at 30h, same strength. However, the Low has yet to form on the new run while the old run had it formed at 1012mb near Tuscon Arizona, but looks like its developing.. Looks like it is pushing back the formation of the low a tad an hour or two.. Nothing major, just an observation..

[joshskeety]

Btw, Front just moved into Lawton, Oklahoma.. so I was 5 minutes late.. hahahaha

[joshskeety]

Temp drop in Lawton 7 degrees in 1 minute.. lol

[CaptinCrunch]

The Best blown NAM was 3 yrs ago when D/FW received 12+ inches of snow across most of the area. Everyone was like the NAM is crazy nuts disregard it...guess what the 12 INCHES of SNOW we received was crazy nuts.....lmao