Texas Fall 2013

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Wichita Falls could see some sleet soon. Dyess AFB reported accumulating sleet a bit earlier.

[gboudx]

We have a bit of sleet or grappel in Rockwall. It's really small, but is definitely not rain.

[CaptinCrunch]

remember the snowstorm of 2010, it started out the same way and as the model runs came out the accumulation amounts went up. I don't think we are going to see anything like that this time around, however I do think precip amounts will increase across much of NTX Sunday afternoon thru Monday afternoon, and yes D/FW will more than likely see a major winter storm out of this.

[joshskeety]

I think the tell tell sign will be the 15z SREF to see if it bombs Texas out again or is quicker like the 12zNAM..

[Peanut432]

Ice storm warning now around Childress. Been sleeting and freezing rain all mourning

[Portastorm]

NWSFO LBB is reporting a quarter inch of ice on the roads already in Crosby County (just to the east of Lubbock).

And, I'm seeing now where an Ice Storm Warning is in effect for the counties in and near Lubbock. This is bad. When you're under one of these, you can pretty much count on heavy freezing precip and likely power outages, general widespread misery.

[Peanut432]

Ice Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1003 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
WILL POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CRAWL
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE EXITING THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS
SPREADING VERY MOIST AIR ALOFT. THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF SLEET AND SNOW ALSO
MIXING IN AT TIMES. THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE AN ICE STORM IN SOME AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL INCHES
OF SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS.

[somethingfunny]

QPF is a tricky mistress. It may have verified out in Springtown but here in Garland I have .1" in my rain gauge.

Storms get undercut by cold air, inflow gets cut off, dry slots appear and heavy bands set up hundreds of miles from where they were expected. We've all seen all these things happen a million times, whether it's a half foot of snow forecasted for Houston that falls on DFW instead, or it's a half foot of rain forecasted for DFW that dumps a foot on Austin instead. Events start out as snow instead of rain and a 3" forecast turns into 14". Upper Level Lows track 50 miles farther north and suddenly there's a sharp cutoff southwest of Sulphur Springs.

The models are damn good at picking out the general idea of what will happen, but the precise location and amount? No way, not even a day away. SOMEBODY will get nailed and we know why, but we don't know the who/how/when/where yet.

We've got a ton of variables to deal with here and none of these models are expert at all of the variables all the time. The trend in all of the models right now is for a slower ejection of the ULL. That's a big deal... will it still be cold enough when the ULL finally arrives? Will our moisture be cut off by a developing Gulf Low? I think there will be a band of heavy sleet and snow but will it be in Abilene or Arlington or Austin? Southeast of there, will it really be cold enough for freezing rain? Will there be rain?

I don't intend to downcast at all, I just don't think any of these models are good enough to really trust right now. The ECMWF likely doesn't initialize the warm nose correctly, the NAM is likely too fast with the ULL, and the GFS... well, the GFS has actually been pretty good this year, for a global model. But it's still the GFS.

I am betting that the Metroplex (employers, colleges, and those ISDs still in session) will at least have delayed openings on Monday.

[somethingfunny]

We have a bit of sleet or grappel in Rockwall. It's really small, but is definitely not rain.

Pictures or it didn't happen!!!!

remember the snowstorm of 2010, it started out the same way and as the model runs came out the accumulation amounts went up. I don't think we are going to see anything like that this time around, however I do think precip amounts will increase across much of NTX Sunday afternoon thru Monday afternoon, and yes D/FW will more than likely see a major winter storm out of this.

The major trend I remember from that storm was how the forecasted temperatures were consistently running 5 degrees above the actual temperatures, and that didn't change when the storm began, so what was forecasted to be a rain-to-snow event with eventual 3"-6" accumulations once the rain froze... instead began as snow, and that was why we ended up with an unexpected foot.

[ndale]

I am surprised, our company has sent an email about inclement weather procedures and we are not even under an advisory in the Austin metro area.

[Portastorm]

I am surprised, our company has sent an email about inclement weather procedures and we are not even under an advisory in the Austin metro area.

No, and we probably won't be today ... but Sunday evening may be an entirely different story. I know that my workplace will share this information when inclement weather is a possibility within the next couple of days. And in this case, I would say it's a good call by your company.

[Tireman4]

I am surprised, our company has sent an email about inclement weather procedures and we are not even under an advisory in the Austin metro area.

No, and we probably won't be today ... but Sunday evening may be an entirely different story. I know that my workplace will share this information when inclement weather is a possibility within the next couple of days. And in this case, I would say it's a good call by your company.

When will we get an update from the PWC

[Portastorm]

I'll tell you what ... we're getting a fairly stout rainshower here in SW Austin right now ... and the forecast was for light rain or drizzle. Wondering now if the strength of some of these disturbances riding up, along the front and across the state are being underestimated. Could have BIG implications later this weekend.

[Rgv20]

The Arctic front should be by my area around 3 to 4 pm....I will say goodbye to the 80's for a long while! Currently 80 at my backyard..

[srainhoutx]

I'll tell you what ... we're getting a fairly stout rainshower here in SW Austin right now ... and the forecast was for light rain or drizzle. Wondering now if the strength of some of these disturbances riding up, along the front and across the state are being underestimated. Could have BIG implications later this weekend.

There are several disturbances riding out of the Pacific across Mexico as the Upper Low deepens and closes off. I'm not so sure that we will see an extended break before that Southern California Low begins to eject E across Arizona and New Mexico.

[Portastorm]

I'm seeing some pix on Twitter from folks in San Angelo and it looks like their roadways are beginning to ice up there.

[orangeblood]

ALL models are 2-3 deg F too warm on there initialization. Winter Storm Watches should probably be extended a couple of counties to the Southeast

[srainhoutx]

Accumulating sleet reported in Lubbock. Roads are becoming a mess.

[ndale]

If the radars are accurate I am amazed at how fast west Tx went from rain to frozen precip in a line from San Angelo to Abilene to Wichita Falls. Portastorm we are now getting that heavy shower on the north side of Austin.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That WV you post srain....lots of moisture out there to work with.