Quite a situation we have.......

[~SirCane]

CAT 5 160mph Hurricane Isabel, heading due West right now, which would put it right through South Florida and into the Gulf if it stays on its current path.

The NHC is unsure on what path she will take. Fabian was so easy to track. Isabel is a whole other story, and she is VERY VERY dangerous. The anticipation next week is going to be very very high.

Gulf Coast to East Coast, we better stay on it and be prepared!

[Rainband]

CAT 5 160mph Hurricane Isabel, heading due West right now, which would put it right through South Florida and into the Gulf if it stays on its current path.

The NHC is unsure on what path she will take. Fabian was so easy to track. Isabel is a whole other story, and she is VERY VERY dangerous. The anticipation next week is going to be very very high.

Gulf Coast to East Coast, we better stay on it and be prepared!

The models seem to be trending north..so if it enters the GOM it would be through florida..but as we have seen..it's a good time to be prepared because things do change!!! But I think the east coast is more likely than the GOM at this point. I also hope this trend continues and florida gets saved..and for that matter the Whole CONUS. This should be an eye-opener for any people I disagree with out there!!!! You'd have to be crazy to wish for this :o Lets see what the models do and more importantly what Isabels does in the coming days!!! BTW Welcome to Storm2k

[opera ghost]

"This should be an eye-opener for any people I disagree with out there!!!!"

I've been -removed- years- but never have I wanted the monster that is Isabel on my doorstep. I told my husband that it would figgure- after taunting the TS's and Cat1-2's and not being happy with TS Allison- that I'd probably coem to regret it as Isabel went to cat 5 and barreled through Florida and into the GOM. Of course I said that last weekend- when she was little more than a twinkle on someone's radar.... which is making me even MORE nervous.

I agree- everyone who could possibly get hit shoudl be watching very carefully and making plans in case Isa turns her eyes on any of us.

[Guest]

I think Sir Cane is right - what trending rainband? The models are all over the place - only consistency I see is west. Everyone from Mexico/GOM/Florida and the East Coast needs to be prepared ASAP.

This one is a cat 5 folks - might write its own history instead of what the models think or climotology (sic) is.....JMO- how long has it been since we had a cat 5?

[Rainband]

I think Sir Cane is right - what trending rainband? The models are all over the place - only consistency I see is west. Everyone from Mexico/GOM/Florida and the East Coast needs to be prepared ASAP.

This one is a cat 5 folks - might write its own history instead of what the models think or climotology (sic) is.....JMO- how long has it been since we had a cat 5?

The models were all west now there is more of a wnw bend in the cone from the National hurricane center..I assume that was because of a trend!!

[~SirCane]

Remember CAT 5 Hurricane Mitch back in 1998.....

it was supposed to go Northward. Instead, he surprised everyone by staying stationary and then moving SW into Honduras.

Wasn't Andrew predicted to turn North?


All bets are off on this monster. All we can do is watch and wait. :?

[AussieMark]

This is the first hurricane to develop into Category 5 intensity east of the Lesser Antilles since Hugo 1989.

[WeatherEmperor]

Indeed. Just gotta pray for the best my friends.

[vortex100]

Research done on strong hurricanes indicate that these storms can often times influence the upper level flow ahead of them, especially in low wind, low shear environments. Without a strong influence from upper level troughing they will keep moving on an established track despite weaknesses in a nearby ridge. This makes forecasting tracks well in the future (beyond 5 days) a big problem. What this means, of course, is that you really cannot rely on long range models that do not have well-estabished long-wave features for forecasting the movement of strong hurricanes. The hurricane themselves will sometimes screw with the weak upper level features. Fabian had the advantage of a strong ridge and an east coast trough to establish its path of movement. This is certainly not the case with Isabel.

[AussieMark]

Once Isabel does eventually encounter shear could it use the shear to intensify like Allen did.

[Mattie]

nteresting Facts
(I was advised that last year hurricane Andrew WAS determined to be a 5)


1) With the exception of Camille, no Category 5 hurricanes have ever existed north of 30 degrees N nor south of 14 degrees N.
2) Four oceanic areas have experienced Category 5 intensity hurricanes twice: (26.5N, 77W), (18N, 86W),(24.5N, 96.5W) and (28-30N, 89W) (the path of Camille)!
3) Areas which have never experienced a landfalling hurricane of Category 5 intensity include: the U.S. East Coast, Cuba, Jamaica, nor most of the Windward or Leeward Islands!

Hurricanes which had reached Category 5 intensity but had weakened by the time of U.S. landfall include: hurricanes of 1928, 1938 (New England Hurricane), and 1947, plus Donna (1960), Ethel (1960), Carla (1961), Beulah (1967), David (1979), Allen (1980), Hugo (1989), and Mitch (1998). Though it was an extremely strong Category 4 storm, even at landfall, Hurricane Andrew never achieved Category 5 status.

Most Intense At U.S Landfall: 1935 Florida Keys 892 mb/ 26.35 in/ 140 kt
Highest Winds at U.S. Landfall: 1969 Camille 909 mb/ 26.84 in/ 165 kt
Most Intense Atlantic Hurricane: 1988 Gilbert 888 mb/ 26.22 in/ 160 kt
Longest as Category Five:* 1980 Allen 899 mb/ 26.55 in/ 165 kt

* Hurricane Allen reached Category 5 intensity three times along its path through the southern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico: twice these periods were of 24-hours duration and the third lasted 18 hours.



http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/satellite/s ... t5hur.html

[ColdFront77]

CAT 5 160mph Hurricane Isabel, heading due West right now, which would put it right through South Florida and into the Gulf if it stays on its current path.

The NHC is unsure on what path she will take. Fabian was so easy to track. Isabel is a whole other story, and she is VERY VERY dangerous. The anticipation next week is going to be very very high.

Gulf Coast to East Coast, we better stay on it and be prepared!

Hurricanes in general are difficult to forecast.

Yes, when the steering pattern is well established, there direction of movement is more confident. I am sure you know what I mean.

Research done on strong hurricanes indicate that these storms can often times influence the upper level flow ahead of them, especially in low wind, low shear environments. Without a strong influence from upper level troughing they will keep moving on an established track despite weaknesses in a nearby ridge. This makes forecasting tracks well in the future (beyond 5 days) a big problem. What this means, of course, is that you really cannot rely on long range models that do not have well-estabished long-wave features for forecasting the movement of strong hurricanes. The hurricane themselves will sometimes screw with the weak upper level features. Fabian had the advantage of a strong ridge and an east coast trough to establish its path of movement. This is certainly not the case with Isabel.

Yes indeed, Vortex... When storms reach the "intense status," as Isabel has achieved; it is more and more of a problem dealing with the forecast model guidance.