Texas Fall 2013

[TrekkerCC]

With us getting close to the event, I would like to invite people to download this app on your smartphone or tablet and use: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/. This app allows you to report your conditions about precipitation that is falling (and it automatically locates you so you just have to submit your conditions) and it helps the National Severe Storms Laboratory with their research. You can report any sort of precipitation (including frozen precipitation) with the app. On the website and with the app (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/display/) you can view any reports the users generate. For example, out in West Texas, there are reports of frozen precip, mostly sleet but some snow reports. It might be useful to view reports as the storm progresses into the DFW area later this morning and evening.

[joshskeety]

With us getting close to the event, I would like to invite people to download this app on your smartphone or tablet and use: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/. This app allows you to report your conditions about precipitation that is falling (and it automatically locates you so you just have to submit your conditions) and it helps the National Severe Storms Laboratory with their research. You can report any sort of precipitation (including frozen precipitation) with the app. On the website and with the app (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/display/) you can view any reports the users generate. For example, out in West Texas, there are reports of frozen precip, mostly sleet but some snow reports. It might be useful to view reports as the storm progresses into the DFW area later this morning and evening.

Nice... I think I will.. Thx..

[downsouthman1]

Watch the surface obs at Abilene in the next 1-2 hours.. That will tell the story.. If they don't report sleet/snow by 1-2AM CST, then its pretty much Virga as Abilene supposedly has the -30c dry column as well...

Does Big Spring show the dry column? I'm asking because, according to radar, they are getting heavy precip right now. That said, I show no precip reported by their auto-reporting station at the airport.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw

That said, surrounding airports are reporting precip.

[downsouthman1]

:uarrow: Where are you getting your reports?

Looking for them on Twitter..

This was posted 55m ago..

Texas Storm Chasers ‏@TxStormChasers 55m

RT @wall_cloud: Freezing rain just began in western #SanAngelo. Stay off the roads tonight and tomorrow. It's gonna be slick! #txwx

If you look at the San Angelo radar, the small "shower" that went through there has lower reflectivity than what is "falling" in Big Spring & what's moving in from the west towards Abilene & San Angelo.

[downsouthman1]

With us getting close to the event, I would like to invite people to download this app on your smartphone or tablet and use: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/. This app allows you to report your conditions about precipitation that is falling (and it automatically locates you so you just have to submit your conditions) and it helps the National Severe Storms Laboratory with their research. You can report any sort of precipitation (including frozen precipitation) with the app. On the website and with the app (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/display/) you can view any reports the users generate. For example, out in West Texas, there are reports of frozen precip, mostly sleet but some snow reports. It might be useful to view reports as the storm progresses into the DFW area later this morning and evening.

Downloaded, installed, & using. Good app so far.

[joshskeety]

Watch the surface obs at Abilene in the next 1-2 hours.. That will tell the story.. If they don't report sleet/snow by 1-2AM CST, then its pretty much Virga as Abilene supposedly has the -30c dry column as well...

Does Big Spring show the dry column? I'm asking because, according to radar, they are getting heavy precip right now. That said, I show no precip reported by their auto-reporting station at the airport.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw

That said, surrounding airports are reporting precip.

According to the NAM at 9h it showed it from about Abilene to Texarkana on one axis and from OKC to Waco on the other, although certain layers outside of that ring may still have some virga..

Also, reporting stations are sometimes slow to report or only report 15 min to as much as hourly.. Hard to say.. That is why I like this (ping) thing.. It just came back that there was some ice pellets being reported in Jones county north of Abilene.. If this is the case, then I think that "dry column" may have been overdone, or its so shallow that the models were just thinking it would dry up more than it is.. Either way, as the event get closer and more of the heavier precip gets into Abilene and points eastward like Cisco/Eastland, we will know for sure if its a Virga storm or not..

[downsouthman1]

Watch the surface obs at Abilene in the next 1-2 hours.. That will tell the story.. If they don't report sleet/snow by 1-2AM CST, then its pretty much Virga as Abilene supposedly has the -30c dry column as well...

Does Big Spring show the dry column? I'm asking because, according to radar, they are getting heavy precip right now. That said, I show no precip reported by their auto-reporting station at the airport.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw

That said, surrounding airports are reporting precip.

According to the NAM at 9h it showed it from about Abilene to Texarkana on one axis and from OKC to Waco on the other, although certain layers outside of that ring may still have some virga..

Also, reporting stations are sometimes slow to report or only report 15 min to as much as hourly.. Hard to say.. That is why I like this (ping) thing.. It just came back that there was some ice pellets being reported in Jones county north of Abilene.. If this is the case, then I think that "dry column" may have been overdone, or its so shallow that the models were just thinking it would dry up more than it is.. Either way, as the event get closer and more of the heavier precip gets into Abilene and points eastward like Cisco/Eastland, we will know for sure if its a Virga storm or not..

It's not a virga storm. It's a convective wintry precip event. I know what yall are looking at but something's gotta be wrong with that group of soundings, as crazy as it is to say that. The only other speculation I can make is that potentially that band will fall completely apart before reaching the I35 corridor but that a new area of precip will develop along the I35 corridor tomorrow as a result of the developing GOM surface low.

I will add that the San Angelo radar appears to be overdoing the precip. I'm basing that on looking at surrounding radars.

[TrekkerCC]

It's not a virga storm. It's a convective wintry precip event. I know what yall are looking at but something's gotta be wrong with that group of soundings, as crazy as it is to say that. The only other speculation I can make is that potentially that band will fall completely apart before reaching the I35 corridor but that a new area of precip will develop along the I35 corridor tomorrow as a result of the developing GOM surface low.

Nah - NWS Meteorologists confirm that the dry layer is there. In fact, in the update that the office sent out, they infer that it might take awhile for the precipitation to reach the surface. But I think it is not a problem: the main event is Sunday Evening/Monday Morning - so plenty of time (with moisture incoming from the pacific) for the atmospheric column to moisten up with the first round of precipitation. I'm encouraged that we are having so many reports out in West Texas of sleet and freezing rain (through I would love to see those reports start to show snow).

MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST OF US. CLOSER TO DAYBREAK...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND THEN REACH THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z FWD
SOUNDING SHOWS A DECENT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 850-900 MB. RAIN/SNOW
FALLING INTO THIS DRY LAYER WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY REACHES THE GROUND IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT
WILL LIKELY FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. THEREFORE...REMOVED THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN FROM THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
PERIODS. CLOSER TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR
A PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SLEET WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.
FINALLY IT LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TOTAL PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIGHT OVERALL. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES WHERE WE COULD SEE 1-2" OF SNOW ACCUMULATE ALONG WITH
ACCUMULATING SLEET. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAIRLY WARM BUT WE
COULD SEE IMPACTS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES...DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...THERE COULD
BE ISOLATED AREAS OF MODERATE SLEET AND IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
ISOLATED TO WHERE THE HEAVIER SLEET OCCURS.

[joshskeety]

03z SREF back further north with Precip.. Puts metroplex back in the above 1.0> QPF range, but just barely.. It is also now saying this band will not fall apart, but it wont be as strong as it is now by the time it hits the Metroplex.. The 21z SREF was not as sure and fell more in line with the NAM stating it wouldn't make it.. Now it says it will..

Also, looking at the 850mb RH, it does not show the dry column near as bullish as the NAM does in fact by 12z (6AM CT) is all but gone.. Unfortunately it does not have the data with it to see further like the NAM does...

[joshskeety]

On a side note, temp here at my house is now below 32 degrees and RH is at 82% (Northern Parker county) but again, I live way out in the boonies much higher elevation than the Metroplex and outside of the island heating that takes place in the DFW area so we get much more radiation cooling than DFW does way out here..

According to the NAM model surface RH should be at 62% at 6h (which was an hour and a half ago).. A sign that the NAM was too bullish on the dry air... A small one, but a sign.. lol

[downsouthman1]

On a side note, temp here at my house is now below 32 degrees and RH is at 82% (Northern Parker county) but again, I live way out in the boonies much higher elevation than the Metroplex and outside of the island heating that takes place in the DFW area so we get much more radiation cooling than DFW does way out here..

According to the NAM model surface RH should be at 62% at 6h (which was an hour and a half ago).. A sign that the NAM was too bullish on the dry air... A small one, but a sign.. lol

Interesting observation with your RHes.

[joshskeety]

A quick check of the new NAM data coming out now and the soundings.. 0h tells the story.. The dry column is there as I figured, but it was way overdone on the past runs.. Showing -22c at 0h and shows it decreasing to -18c at 3h and then <10c at 6h.. And that is before the precip gets here so its saturating quickly before the main precip comes in which is why I believe we are seeing such easy reports of precip falling out west..

Still more than I figured on, but better than the 0z was trying to tell us which had it off the chart at 9h (-35c) which is the same time as the 6zNAM is at 3h shows -18c.. Thats a pretty big difference..

[downsouthman1]

A quick check of the new NAM data coming out now and the soundings.. 0h tells the story.. The dry column is there as I figured, but it was way overdone on the past runs.. Showing -22c at 0h and shows it decreasing to -18c at 3h and then <10c at 6h.. And that is before the precip gets here so its saturating quickly before the main precip comes in which is why I believe we are seeing such easy reports of precip falling out west..

Still more than I figured on, but better than the 0z was trying to tell us which had it off the chart at 9h (-35c) which is the same time as the 6zNAM is at 3h shows -18c.. Thats a pretty big difference..

Also interesting is the batch of precip getting ready to move into Del Rio. Del Rio radar is in an intensity phase with the San Angelo radar. Are they both overestimating precip?

Additionally, it looks like the 06Z NAM rolling in doesn't even see this initial batch of precip. Or it does but it only sees the northern piece of it & moves it from the TX panhandle into OK with no southern extent to the precip at all.

[joshskeety]

A quick check of the new NAM data coming out now and the soundings.. 0h tells the story.. The dry column is there as I figured, but it was way overdone on the past runs.. Showing -22c at 0h and shows it decreasing to -18c at 3h and then <10c at 6h.. And that is before the precip gets here so its saturating quickly before the main precip comes in which is why I believe we are seeing such easy reports of precip falling out west..

Still more than I figured on, but better than the 0z was trying to tell us which had it off the chart at 9h (-35c) which is the same time as the 6zNAM is at 3h shows -18c.. Thats a pretty big difference..

Also interesting is the batch of precip getting ready to move into Del Rio. Del Rio radar is in an intensity phase with the San Angelo radar. Are they both overestimating precip?

No, I dont think so.. If you look at Corpus and there is some radar pings starting to build there, which tells me ULL maybe beginning to tap into the Gulf rather than the pacific moisture it is now.. I think that is why that big glob that is about to hit Del Rio is building as well.. Definitely intensifying, only slightly.. Definitely holding its own..

[joshskeety]

Abilene reporting moderate freezing rain and sleet now according to reports on twitter...

[downsouthman1]

A quick check of the new NAM data coming out now and the soundings.. 0h tells the story.. The dry column is there as I figured, but it was way overdone on the past runs.. Showing -22c at 0h and shows it decreasing to -18c at 3h and then <10c at 6h.. And that is before the precip gets here so its saturating quickly before the main precip comes in which is why I believe we are seeing such easy reports of precip falling out west..

Still more than I figured on, but better than the 0z was trying to tell us which had it off the chart at 9h (-35c) which is the same time as the 6zNAM is at 3h shows -18c.. Thats a pretty big difference..

Also interesting is the batch of precip getting ready to move into Del Rio. Del Rio radar is in an intensity phase with the San Angelo radar. Are they both overestimating precip?

No, I dont think so.. If you look at Corpus and there is some radar pings starting to build there, which tells me ULL maybe beginning to tap into the Gulf rather than the pacific moisture it is now.. I think that is why that big glob that is about to hit Del Rio is building as well.. Definitely intensifying, only slightly.. Definitely holding its own..

Something interesting I noticed. Remember the cell I was talking about over Big Spring earlier? Even though KBPG never reported anything other than fair conditions, their 1:35 AM report shows a 1-hour precip total of 0.07" with a temp of 31 degrees. Something definitely fell there; I'm just not sure what. Some of the nearby reports would appear to make it freezing rain/sleet.

[downsouthman1]

Abilene reporting moderate freezing rain and sleet now according to reports on twitter...

Moderate with hardly anything showing up on their radar. But if you look at the San Angelo radar, it would indicate exactly what the Twitter feed states. Makes me wonder now if the San Angelo radar & Del Rio have a good handle on the intensity of the precip but the Abilene radar is actually underestimating.

[joshskeety]

Abilene reporting moderate freezing rain and sleet now according to reports on twitter...

Moderate with hardly anything showing up on their radar. But if you look at the San Angelo radar, it would indicate exactly what the Twitter feed states. Makes me wonder now if the San Angelo radar & Del Rio have a good handle on the intensity of the precip but the Abilene radar is actually underestimating.

I dunno, I just saw a pretty good band go through Abilene, it was the first one and lit up like a Christmas tree yellow, so there was some sleet in it.. Now just a moderate green band going through now..

In reality I think the dry column was overdone and so very shallow that it didn't make the difference the models were thinking it was with the moisture.. So far, its definitely deeper here than in Abilene, but in reality its not stopping much so far..

[joshskeety]

The 6z NAM is still over playing dry air.. It has Abilene at only .09 QPF for the whole storm now all while a huge band is getting ready to go through it.. It had this band already dissipated by now and trying to reform over Fredericksburg.. It has lost touch with reality..

[joshskeety]

Just got another report in Abilene on twitter reporting ice all over the interstate... 8m ago..