I thought it was a wobble, but Isabel has been heading just south of due west for the last 1.5 hrs. Also, note that it has become negative tilted in other words NW/SE oriented. This along with the fact that it seems to have picked up some speed. If this trend continues for the next few hours it should to be a interesting discussion from the NHC.
Ernie
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dixiebreeze
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dixiebreeze
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Frank P
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From what I can tell it looks due west to me... that in itself was not forecasted by the NHC... in a system moving due west you would expect a wobble to the south and north every so often... but you have to average them out for a distance.. the average to me IMO is due west... now if we get some more consistent wobbles to the south, then it a whole new ballgame.... regardless this is a change from its just north of due west track its been on for most of the day....
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Anonymous
It appears that Isabel has done a little bit of an arc, towards the west, and now a little bit south of due west.
Granted, it has been for only a short period of time, but could this be the w/wsw motion the models first initialized yesterday and then were discounted later on? Interesting.
Lets wait and see it this is the beginning of something significant. If this apparent trend continues, then I would say the models will be all over the place once again.
Granted, it has been for only a short period of time, but could this be the w/wsw motion the models first initialized yesterday and then were discounted later on? Interesting.
Lets wait and see it this is the beginning of something significant. If this apparent trend continues, then I would say the models will be all over the place once again.
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Stormsfury
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WeatherNole
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Hmmmmmm....
IMO, a slight SWly jog, PLUS an increase in forward speed would NOT be a good thing at all. Big hurricanes like Isabel have a LOT of momentum. I like to compare it to a freight train. The more speed it has - the harder it is to turn. When it *does* turn, it is more of a long, sweeping process. It can't turn sharply - the laws of physics won't allow it.
So - living in the panhandle of Florida, the last thing I want to see is a Cat 5 hurricane below 25 degrees lat, heading on a westerly track at a good forward speed.
Here's to hoping that the last hour or two is a wobble, and that Issy will stay nice and slow.
Mike
So - living in the panhandle of Florida, the last thing I want to see is a Cat 5 hurricane below 25 degrees lat, heading on a westerly track at a good forward speed.
Here's to hoping that the last hour or two is a wobble, and that Issy will stay nice and slow.
Mike
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dixiebreeze
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Momentum analogy is bogus
Hurricanes are NOT like freight trains.
They have a lot of angular momentum, but not much momentum in the sense you're implying.
One way to understand this is to realize we are not talking about, say, a large bowling ball rolling through air.
The hurricane, overall, is very near the same density as the material it is moving through. It's fluid dynamics.
That's why they CAN stop on a dime, slow down, speed up, turn sharply, etc., etc.
They have a lot of angular momentum, but not much momentum in the sense you're implying.
One way to understand this is to realize we are not talking about, say, a large bowling ball rolling through air.
The hurricane, overall, is very near the same density as the material it is moving through. It's fluid dynamics.
That's why they CAN stop on a dime, slow down, speed up, turn sharply, etc., etc.
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WeatherNole
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OK...
So you're telling me that an object that weighs MILLIONS of TONS, with a forward speed of 10 to 20 mph, can stop on a dime and change direction? I understand the concept of angular momentum, but I am talking about forward momentum.
Last edited by WeatherNole on Thu Sep 11, 2003 9:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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