Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 PM AST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...EVENING RAOB SHOWS A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW FROM SURFACE
UP TO 30K FT AS WELL AS A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 800MB AND 700MB.
HOWEVER...A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW HAVE TRANSPORTED PATCHES OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
HAVE MOVED FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LEAVING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS AND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH SO
FAR. THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR ADVECTING OVER WARM WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...A LOW TO
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
A GENERALLY STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MINOR CHANGES
WERE INTRODUCED THIS EVENING TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

[cycloneye]

Barbados Weather Service

Lesser Antilles Forecast

Tonight's Forecast Valid From 2200Z Monday 2013-12-09 To 1000Z Tuesday 2013-12-10

Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions are affecting the Southern Windwards.

Wx : Over the Southern Windwards: Partly cloudy to cloudy with scattered showers.
ELSEWHERE: Fair to partly cloudy with a few brief showers.

Winds: E - NE at 20 - 45 km/h.

Seas: Rough in open water with swells 3.0 - 3.5 metres. A small craft warning remains in effect for above normal sea swells.

Tomorrow's Forecast Valid From 1000Z Tuesday 2013-12-10 To 2200Z Tuesday 2013-12-10

Synopsis: Weak unstable conditions are affecting the Southern Windwards.

Wx : Over the Southern Windwards: Partly Cloudy to cloudy with scattered showers.
ELSEWHERE: Fair to partly cloudy with a few brief showers.

Winds: E - NE at 20 - 45 km/h.

Seas: Rough in open water with swells 3.0 - 3.5 metres. A small craft warning remains in effect for above normal sea swells.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI from time to time today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER OVR PR THROUGH THU
THEN GET PICKED UP BY BROAD POLAR TROUGH OVR THE WRN ATLC. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE NE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS...PASSING LOW-MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SOUTH OF PR AND LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN RISK
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH FRI MAINLY OVR
THE ERN HALF OF PR...USVI AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RISK WILL BE
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WED ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS ALTHOUGH ECMWF
SUGGESTS THU-SAT. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARENT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ATTM...THE H5-H2 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER THAN NORMAL WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WX
AND THE RISK OF SOME SHOWERS. SFC WINDS ALSO REACH A MINIMUM LATE
THU WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE
FRI AND STRENGTHENS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BY SUN...UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOOK QUITE STRONG WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

SFC WINDS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH FRI MORNING BUT
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN FRI NIGHT THRU SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA PASSING JUST N OF PR WILL BE WEST OF
THE ISLAND BY SUNRISE...MOVG 26 KT. BUT ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE AND
SCT SHRA NR LEEWARDS WL BE NR TNCM/TKPK THIS MRNG TO REACH TIST/TISX
BY 12Z. PDS BRF SHRA TDY/TONITE MAINLY FROM TJSJ TO TNCM/TKPK. WINDS
FL010-FL150 E 18-28 KT THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS FINALLY ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND THIS
TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU 12Z FRI. WILL CHECK BUOYS TO SEE
IF ANY SCA`S CAN BE CANCELLED. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 80 84 79 / 40 50 40 0
STT 86 80 87 79 / 30 30 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
218 PM AST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND A GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON
DEPICTED A SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW...MOVING WESTWARD MOSTLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER
LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TREND
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS
FEATURE WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IN FACTS...THE PWAT VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO INCREASE MORE THAN 1.80 INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL
ENHANCE THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION...PRODUCING A GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY...INDUCING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 83 / 50 40 0 10
STT 76 86 75 87 / 30 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
918 PM AST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ARE INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...FOCUSING ON THE USVI AND WINDWARD
AREAS OF PR. 00Z TJSJ SOUNDING AND SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SHOW A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE ISLANDS
VICINITY THAN THIS MORNING...AND ITS REFLECTED BY THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THESE AREAS. NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCE THIS EVENING AS THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today but better weather will arrive by tonight.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST WED DEC 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVR THE ERN DOM REP WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST NEXT 48-60 HRS AND THEN GET PICKED UP BY A BROAD POLAR
TROUGH OVR THE WRN ATLC. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE NE
CARIB LATE SUN AND HOLD THRU MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOES IR IMAGERY AND BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IN AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND ALONG A 300-200 MB CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE DUE TO A TRADE
WIND SURGE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PROMISE TO BRING A VERY ACTIVE
MORNING TO THE USVI AND NORTHEAST PR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING GIVEN CURR HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.
LUCKILY...SHOWERS WILL MOVE FAST AROUND 20 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMS. HOWEVER...HALF TO ONE INCH HOURLY RAIN
RATES ARE POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. THINGS DRY OUT RAPIDLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND AM EXPECTING THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF PR BY 21Z
TODAY. HAVE KEPT FCST DRY FOR TONIGHT AS MODELS SHOW VERY LARGE
H85 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVR LAND AREAS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT BRIEF
SHRAS OR SPRINKLES THU-SAT AS CLOUD CLUSTERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WINDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA ON SUN AND LOOKS TO HOLD
STRONG THRU MID NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE FINALLY WE MAY START TO
ENJOY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN
EARLY SAT AND REMAIN STRONG THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT/NRMS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA MOVG W 25 KT CURRENTLY ARRIVING
TIST WI MORE DVLPG IN LEEWARDS. DRIER AIR WL REACH USVI BY EARLY AFT
AND PR LATE AFT. XPCT VFR XCP IFR/MVFR IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA...SOME
OBSCD MTNS. WIND FL010-FL150 E 15-25 KT BCMG 10-20 KT ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 7 FT FOR THE TIME BEING BUT
MODELS INDICATE A SURGE IN WINDS LATER TODAY WHICH MAY RAISE SEAS
AGAIN TO 7 FT. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL KEEP SCA
THROUGH TODAY. SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT IF THE
WIND SURGE AND HIGHER SEAS MATERIALIZE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DEFINITELY DROP BELOW SCA THU AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES QUITE A
BIT BUT SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR DEFINITE AGAIN EARLY SAT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
STRONG HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 79 85 78 / 70 0 20 10
STT 85 79 87 78 / 50 0 20 10

[Macrocane]

A new cold surge has began in Central America, it is not as strong as the last one (2 weeks ago) but will bring cooler weather than in the last few days:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND HAS TRIGGERED THE
MOST RECENT GALE EVENT. A 0546 UTC OSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS OF
30-40 KT WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FT. THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 40 KT OR
SO IN ANOTHER SURGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WELL INTO THU. THE LONG
DURATION GALE EVENT WILL RESULT IN A PLUME OF NE SWELL AT 8-11
FT PROPAGATING TO THE S-SW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N90W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 09N90W TO 07N100W TO 09N111W THEN RESUMES FROM
09N120W TO 08N130W TO 09N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION NOTED AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1041 MB HIGH
PRES OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION AND TROUGHING OVER NW
MAINLAND MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA N OF 26N. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AND AS A RESULT WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS LATER THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE EARLIER OVER THE N-CENTRAL PACIFIC HAS DISSIPATED
WITH ONLY AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM
29N122W TO 20N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR
44N130W HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS TO
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO FRESH LEVELS. LINGERING 8-10 FT
NORTHERLY SWELL COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N BETWEEN 127W AND 138W.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS
WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING BY THEN.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING POKING INTO THE WESTERN WATERS TO THE SW-W
OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS.
THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL IS PRODUCING
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT GENERALLY FROM 03N TO 20N W OF 132W.
THESE SEAS WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 48 HOURS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 13N116W TO
08N115W. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL PULSING OF WINDS TO 20 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GAP FLOW BY FRI AS TRADE
WIND FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
COBB

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST WED DEC 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA...WILL MOVE EAST
NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS WITH PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. BEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...AND OVER
SAINT CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. A DRY
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE
EAST...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT FOR SHOWER
OVER THE LOCAL REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO
DROP TO LESS 1.2 INCHES BY THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENT ARE FORECAST AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 12/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SEAS HAS DROP BELOW 7
FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 85 73 84 / 0 20 10 10
STT 75 87 75 86 / 0 20 10 10

[Macrocane]

The observations from the strong cold front that reached Central America from November 27 to December 2 are already here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2361938#p2361938

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today but for the most part it will be sunny.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST THU DEC 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR PR WILL START MOVING EAST TODAY
AND MERGE WITH A BROAD POLAR TROUGH OVR THE ATLC. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR PR WILL START DRIFTING EAST
TODAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING OVR THE
REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVR PR ON
FRI. STILL THE RISK OF ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY BUT NOTHING LIKE
YDAY AS AIR MASS HAS DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. VERY DRY ON FRI
UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AND PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SAT. WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS WILL WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE CAP AND PROMOTE SOME
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA FRI NIGHT.
H85-H7 LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS ON SAT WITH STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRYING SAT THRU SUN. FAIR WX
CONDITIONS SUN-WED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN STARTS FLATTENING OUT NEXT THU AS DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER NORTH AMERICA PRESSES EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...RDG OVR CNTRL ATL WL SWEEP VRY DRY AIR ACROSS REGION ABV
5 KFT EVEN INTO NXT WEEK. MOISTURE DEEPENS A FEW TIMES BUT ONLY
BRFLY NXT 48 HRS AND WL NOT SUPPORT MANY SHRA. ISOLD SHRA XPCTD
THU-FRI WHILE THEY OFTEN WL NOT CAUSE LWR THAN VFR CONDS. WIND
FL010-FL150 E 15-25 KT BCMG 10-20 KT TONITE-FRI.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TODAY THRU FRI BUT THEN
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SAT AND SUN AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE
NORTH AND TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT. HOWEVER...WINDS DO NOT
LOOK AS STRONG AS THEY WERE LAST WEEKEND BUT EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD
6-8 FT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 84 78 / 10 0 20 20
STT 86 78 87 79 / 10 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST THU DEC 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WITH VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED. LATEST 12/12Z
TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES OF 1.23 INCHES.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING
THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
AT LEAST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL AID IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED...AS THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE FAST IN THE TRADE WINDS. IN THE LONG
TERM...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND
10-20 KT BLO 3 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE LAST WEEKEND BUT EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD 6-8 FT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 84 78 85 / 0 20 20 20
STT 78 87 79 87 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general is expected this weekend in PR and VI with only a few showers moving thru. Watch out in the beaches for rip currents.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST FRI DEC 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL ERODE SLIGHTLY TODAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND... AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT LOW LEVELS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA AND PERSIST
OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CREATE AND
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ALONG WITH STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT...WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN AN ADVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WHICH WILL HELP TRANSPORT
PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND QUICK PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY FORM DURING THE DAYTIME ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...BUT
THEY WILL QUICKLY STREAM WESTWARDS LEAVING NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY PASSING SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC...AND THE TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS SEAS DUE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
BE IN EFFECT LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 75 86 77 / 30 30 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST FRI DEC 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE WEST...
AS TROUGH ALOFT MOVES NORTHEAST AND MERGES WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASE THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN COASTAL AREAS
AND THE WINDS WERE EASTERLY AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME AND WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS USVI AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
SATURDAY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AS WELL AS MONDAY 06Z THROUGH 12Z...
AS A RESULT STILL EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SRFC WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10-15 KTS...AND FROM SRFC UP TO 5
KFT...WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT AROUND 15-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE INCREASING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CREATE...CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS SEA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 30 30 20 20
STT 75 86 75 86 / 40 40 20 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today but more drier weather is expected for Sunday thru next Wednesday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST SAT DEC 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.THEREAFTER IT WILL
BEGIN TO ERODE AS A BROAD POLAR TROUGH SINKS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE WEST ATLANTIC. IN THE MEANTIME ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL CROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE REST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY.STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY
EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS IN TURN WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING
MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE WITH ACCOMPANYING
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALREADY ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND REACH PARTS OF THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE ACTIVITY HOWEVER WILL BE OF
SHORT DURATION AND FAST MOVING AS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL EACH DAY A THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS TO PERSIST DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND SHOWER ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL
FRIDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL PLACE THE ISLANDS ON THE SUBSIDENT/CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN. BY THAT TIME HOWEVER THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN
TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT AND CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLD/SCT PASSING SHRA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING UP TO 10 KNOTS...INCREASING BY MID MORNING WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY THROUGH
EARLY SUN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CREATE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 74 / 50 20 20 20
STT 86 75 86 75 / 30 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST SAT DEC 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE WEST...
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED FAST MOVING SHOWERS
WERE NOTED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AS WELL AS USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN
COASTAL AREAS WITH AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF UP TO 20 MPH.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME TO RESULT IN
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL ERODE THURSDAY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA XPCTD THIS AFT BUT MOISTURE SHALLOWS
MUCH TONITE...WL LIMIT SHRA TO ISOLD AT MOST TONITE/SUNDAY. WINDS
FL010-FL150 ESE 16-33 KT THRU SUNDAY...WL WATCH FOR LLWS TNITE IF
SFC DECOUPLES FM WIND ALOFT BUT SFC WL LIKELY STAY A LITTLE BREEZY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS AND SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL CREATE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS. AS A RESULT...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 84 / 20 20 30 30
STT 75 86 75 86 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
924 PM AST SUN DEC 15 2013

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
AS WELL AS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT BUT
NEVERTHELESS PASSING SCATTERED SHOWERS LEAVING HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST MON DEC 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY FRESH TO STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL ERODE BY MID WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINES MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING DEPICTED A SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE
SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
WATERS AND LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP DIMINISH THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS BY
MID WEEK. HOWEVER FOR TODAY...THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL BANDS OF -SHRA/SHRA WILL QUICKLY MOVE FM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR
CONDS IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PSBL GUSTY SFC WINDS BTW 25-35 KTS.
SCT-BKN CLD LYS MAINLY BTW FL015-FL100 W/ISOLD TCU MAX TOPS MAINLY
AROUND 22K FT. MTN TOP OBSCR ALSO PSBL WITH PASSING LOW CLDS AND
SHRA ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
OF PR TIL 16/14Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS CONT FM E AT 15-30KTS BLO FL250.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 18 TO 21 KNOTS TODAY.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING
THAT THE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 7 FEET AND FOR THOSE
REASONS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM THIS MORNING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND UNTIL TUESDAY
EVENING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 83 73 / 40 30 30 20
STT 86 75 86 76 / 40 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. The patches of clouds with showers will continue to move thru PR and VI for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
218 PM AST MON DEC 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
ERODING AS POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BECOMING NORTHEAST AND STRONG ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FAST MOVING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
USVI AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN COASTAL AREAS WITH TRADE WINDS OF
UP TO 20 MPH. EASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA SHIFTS FURTHER
EAST OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC.

A GENERALLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME TO RESULT IN INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWER INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE A BIT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS POLAR TROUGH AXIS
RELOCATES SOUTH TO EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH ITS CONVERGENT
SIDE OVER US.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND THE USVI TERMINALS IN
PASSING SHRA. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BELOW 15K FT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS. THIS WILL CREATE CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS AT LEAST THROUGH TOMORROW. LOCAL BUOYS OF SAN JUAN AND SOUTH
OF ST. JOHN HAVE BEEN MEASURING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET WITH 7
FEET OCCASIONALLY.

&&

CLIMATE...2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 6TH AND 4TH WETTEST YEAR ON
RECORD AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTL AIRPORT(TJSJ) AND THE CYRIL E.
KING AIRPORT(TIST) WITH 82.69" AND 53.58" RESPECTIVELY. THE WETTEST
YEAR ON RECORD AT BOTH STATIONS WAS 2010 WITH 89.50" AT TJSJ AND
61.36" AT TIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 74 83 / 20 30 40 40
STT 75 86 75 85 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

It has been a wet 2013 in Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. 2013 ranks as the 4th most wettest year on rainfall in Puerto Rico. In the U.SVI it ranks at #6.

.CLIMATE...2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 6TH AND 4TH WETTEST YEAR ON
RECORD AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTL AIRPORT(TJSJ) AND THE CYRIL E.
KING AIRPORT(TIST) WITH 82.69" AND 53.58" RESPECTIVELY. THE WETTEST
YEAR ON RECORD AT BOTH STATIONS WAS 2010 WITH 89.50" AT TJSJ AND
61.36" AT TIST.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will once again move thru PR and VI today and will continue for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST WED DEC 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WHILE A POLAR TROUGH EXITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES
AND BUCKS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A TUTT LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THEN INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY MOIST ADVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TUTT TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS CHAIN
WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE EMBEDDED PASSING SHOWERS WHICH WILL
MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FROM TIME TO
TIME. PREVIOUS UPPER AIR DATA...LOCAL OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST SLIGHT EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS THE RIDGE ALOFT ERODES...EXPECT THE TRADE
WIND INVERSION TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TODAY AND ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE TODAY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES
AND BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN TO INCREASE THE TRADE WIND
INVERSION CAP BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO TO REESTABLISH AND BUILD ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL TIGHTEN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN...LEADING TO THE INCREASING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND. A RETURN OF THE MORE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND ADVECTION OF PASSING SHOWERS IS THEN FORECAST... WITH
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE FLYING
AREA...WITH SOME PASSING VCSH OVER TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM AND
TKPK AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SFC WND MAINLY FM
EAST AT 10 KT OR LESS THRU EARLY MORNING...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHRA. AFTER 18/12Z PASSING SHRA/VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
VARIOUS TAF SITES BUT VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WNDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WILL RESULT LEAD TO INCREASING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC LATER TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY WFO
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 82 74 / 30 30 40 40
STT 86 74 85 76 / 40 40 20 20