Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TheProfessor]

http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b313/katheria/USA_APTMPF_2m_336.gif

with wind chill..............

http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b313/katheria/USA_CSNOW_sfc_336.gif

Is this windshield because I can't see it hit -30 degrees in Kansas or -20 in Oklahoma.

[DonWrk]

Is this windshield because I can't see it hit -30 degrees in Kansas or -20 in Oklahoma.

It hit -30 in Oklahoma in 2011!

[katheria]

The coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma was set today. 2-10-2011

The Oklahoma Mesonet weather station at Nowata reached minus 31 degrees Fahrenheit actual temperature at 7:40 a.m. today. That will be considered for the official state record.

That mark eclipses the previous all-time record low state temperature of minus 27 degrees, set at at Vinita, Feb. 13, 1905, and Watts, Jan. 18, 1930.

Also, the Mesonet station at Medford recorded a wind chill of minus 47 degrees at 7:45 a.m. setting a Mesonet record.

[BigB0882]

I guess that latest GFS operational run quieted everyone down? lol

[Ntxw]

This thread typically quiets down between 5 and 9 pm (evening hours). Portastorm has stated because people have dinner and tend to stuff (primetime tv) posts don't pick up until the 0z models.

18z GEFS is still brutal despite the OP not matching up at the surface. We'll probably see the OP models wobble back and forth but the 5h pattern is unchanging. This is why the ensembles are better to look at, because they take account both extremes and takes an average for the means whichever way they sway you know it's serious. Remember how the most recent cold snap the guidance kept eroding the cold away and to the northeast? Ensembles nailed it right down the middle and stuck.

[ravyrn]

I think we need we need a few more horizontal lines on the metograms on this site. We have one for freezing, why not one for wxman57 and his levels of discomfort or happiness.

This is an excellent suggestion. However, I believe the 80F line which he represents on his meteograms as a red-dashed line when he includes that temp in the upper range, is the representation of his level of discomfort. Pretty much anything below 80F is unacceptable and torture in his opinion.

[ravyrn]

I know the 18Z backed off... but it still has my location in ETX struggling to get above 50F until next Monday. I believe that will be about 11 days of struggling to break 50F. We haven't seen above 37F since Thursday which means we have now had 5 days of sub-37F temps. I can't recall when temps dipped down Thursday so I can't comment more specifically on hours.

18z is still only showing below-normal temps to average towards the end of the 192hr forecast period. The next 192hr forecast period, I won't mention and will wait until the 0z run w/ earnest hopes of greater cold. Highs and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s for ETX for an 84 hour period in ETX seems impossible and viewing the long range of the 18z... it looked whack.

[weatherdude1108]

Sprinklers were on at end of our neighborhood during night, leaking frozen puddles. There was no friction for a split second between my tires and the road as I traveled over frozen puddle. Slightly unnerving.
Got to work. There were frozen puddles in the parking lot where apparently sprinklers were leaking onto parking lot (as usual). I slipped briefly again while backing into space where there were ice puddles! Geez. Figures man-made stuff would cause slip n' sliding. No Winter weather warnings. The commercial properties obviously don't get managed often.

[wxman57]

I think we need we need a few more horizontal lines on the metograms on this site. We have one for freezing, why not one for wxman57 and his levels of discomfort or happiness.

This is an excellent suggestion. However, I believe the 80F line which he represents on his meteograms as a red-dashed line when he includes that temp in the upper range, is the representation of his level of discomfort. Pretty much anything below 80F is unacceptable and torture in his opinion.

You are correct - the 80F line is my comfort level. And the graphics at the top of this page represent the predicted wind chill, not actual surface temperature.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Next shot of arctic air will arrive late today helping to keep the cold air mass that has been in place for almost a week anchored over the region.

Clouds have increased overnight as warm southerly flow has started to overrun the cold dome at the surface. The cloud deck helped to prevent a widespread freeze across the area this morning with only our northern counties falling to or below freezing. Third surge of arctic air will cross the region late today into tonight with increasing northerly winds and a maintaining of below normal temperatures through the end of the week. This will result in lows in the 30’s and 40’s and highs in the 50’s.

Next storm system will approach and cross the region Friday-Saturday. Clouds will thicken and lower during the day on Thursday as moisture will begin to increase. Arctic high pressure dome will finally start to push eastward by Friday allowing winds to turn around to the SE after being out of the north for over week. This should allow some low level moisture to return to the area, but the Gulf has been scoured by the recent arctic outbreak and suspect moisture return will be slow and models may be overdoing the amount of moisture for Friday. Old arctic boundary over the Gulf will begin to return northward as a warm front, but do not think the boundary will get much inland if at all keeping most of the area in the cold sector. Increasing large scale ascent ahead of the incoming trough will promote scattered light rains on Friday becoming more widespread on Friday night with widespread fog/drizzle/light rain expected. Temperatures will be in the 50’s so no P-type concerns.

Next cold front sweeps across the area Saturday morning with winds shifting back to the north and increasing. Should see skies clear out on Saturday behind this front by the afternoon and this will allow for low temperatures on Sunday AM to fall back into the low to mid 30’s. Slow warm up starting late in the weekend under mainly clear skies…but temperatures still remaining below normal for this time of year.

Very Long Range (Christmas Week):

Both the GFS and ECMWF have been indicating the formation of significant ridging from the Gulf of Alaska to northern Russia by the end of next week. Extremely warm water over the northern Pacific Ocean (south of the Gulf of Alaska) is helping to support the formation of these intense ridges in this area and the resultant transport of cold arctic air southward into the US. In fact the forecasted pattern and the anomalies being shown have similarities to 1989, 1983, and 1899 which all resulted in brutal arctic outbreaks into the US. Model guidance continues to indicate the potential for such an outbreak before/near Christmas, but has not been very consistent on how much cold air comes southward, but something to watch for sure.

Climate:
After a warm start to the month with a high temperature of 81 on the 4th, the temperature at BUSH IAH did not reach 50 degrees between Dec 6 and yesterday. After having high temperatures above 70 degrees for the first 5 days of the month, the recent cold outbreak has wiped out the warm anomaly and we are currently sitting at a monthly average temperatures of 54.7 degrees which is 1.6 degrees below normal. The high on the 7th of 38 shattered the previous record high minimum of 45 degrees from 1909 (a 104 year old record). In fact all major climate sites (Galveston, Hobby, IAH, and College Station) all set new record high minimums on Dec 7th. College Stations also spent 41 consecutive hours below freezing during this event.

After having a high of 79 on Dec 4th, Dallas had a high temperature below 35 degrees for 4 days straight. The average December temperature for Dallas is currently a frigid 41.7 degrees or 7.3 degrees below normal.

[wxman57]

If I'm going to lose my Queen palms to this type of cold they better be covered in snow! Wxman your concern over the cold has me taking this threat seriously. I wouldn't know where to start to truly "winterize" my home but the thought of pipes breaking in the attic is enough to make me educate myself this weekend.

Unfortunately, many homes down south are built with water pipes exposed in the attic - often located ABOVE the insulation. One thing you can do to help keep the pipes from freezing is to get some rolls of insulation and put a layer of insulation over the pipes. If the pipes are easy to get to, then maybe also wrap the pipes with that foam insulation material first.

If temperatures are going to drop into the teens and perhaps not reach above freezing, then you should shut the water off to your home and drain all the pipes. That's what I plan to do if we really do see those cold temps around Christmas. I'd rather be inconvenienced for a day or two than deal with frozen pipes followed by flooding. You can still turn the water on to take showers or wash dishes, just turn it back off and drain the pipes again when you're done.

[Portastorm]

I'm sure this is probably one of the last things y'all in Dallas want to see, but check out the longer-range meteogram for Dallas per the GFS. Hint: orange bars = bad.




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[Portastorm]

Another day, another set of GFS ensembles showing very cold air for Christmas-time in Texas.



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[RedRiverRefuge]

Nope none none of that PLEASE porta . This is 3" thick ice sliding off my metal roof in one big sheet (far northern fannin county). We have had several roof collapses due to ice and several deemed unsafe.


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[Portastorm]

Guess I'm on a map kick today. Heh ... well, here's the 12z GFS op run on the morning of Monday, Dec. 23rd. Bbbbrrrrrr.....




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And then there is this ...



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[Tireman4]

Guess I'm on a map kick today. Heh ... well, here's the 12z GFS op run on the morning of Monday, Dec. 23rd. Bbbbrrrrrr.....

Well that settles it. Wxman57 is on his way to Brazil. Got tickets this morning. Rio, I think. Have fun sir. You will love it.

[gboudx]

There's never a good time for an ice event, but right at Christmas with all the travel is probably the worse. I hope the model changes its tune.

[orangeblood]

Well 12Z GFS goes to the "1983 Type" Arctic Outbreak Solution, bringing wave after wave of Arctic High Pressures into the Lower 48. This run shows DFW not getting above freezing from Friday Dec. 20 through the end of its run Dec. 27th. Massive Area of minus 20 deg F reaching all the way into Nebraska towards the end of this run. This, of course, is an extreme option but models have been trending towards it for several days now.

Weekend before Christmas GFS forecast

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has teens for Houston on the 23rd, but nothing close to what happened in 1983 or 1989. Front arrives on Saturday the 21st and temp drops to low 20s Sunday. Precip ends as the temperature falls to near freezing. But the GFS has a disturbance moving across the cold air on the 26th-27th, indicating about 1/2" of liquid equivalent with temps in the 20s here. Of course, this is 15 days out and the GFS moved the frozen precip date back again.



Cold in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area, too:

[Portastorm]

Now here's a meteogram (12z GFS today for KAUS) I could really embrace and wrap my arms around!



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