ouamber wrote:Does anyone have any of tonight's Euro maps to show?
I don't have it but I believe the 0z runs of the Euro and GFS both backed off quite a bit on the system.
I've seen these go both ways - sometimes the long-range models will seem to
always have a huge Arctic outbreak
just beyond the next 7 days... and it never comes or it comes in a weakened state. I've also seen the long-range models (particularly the GFS) have a huge event depicted 1-2 weeks away, then completely lose track of it a bit over a week out, and then suddenly pick it up again a few days later, like around five days out.
I have a hard time believing this Christmas week won't be extremely cold here given the pattern that's evolving thus far and the fact that we've already been quite cold this year, unlike other Decembers when "Lucy snaps the football."
NWS Fort Worth wrote:.LONG TERM...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REPLACE THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
AREA BY MID WEEK. LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST WILLINCREASE
AND RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL CONTINUE AND COULD TOP
70 DEGREES ACROSS SOME OF OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES ON THURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE KEEPING THE AREA DRY.
FORECAST CHALLENGES RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS THE
CHILL BACK TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE INITIAL
PUSH OF THE COLD AIR APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO HANG IT UP ACROSS OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES ON SATURDAY DUE TO
INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF AN ORGANIZING UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST. THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME ARCTIC PROPERTIES TO
IT AND IF THIS IS TRUE...IT IS LIKELY THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGARDLESS HOW OF SHALLOW IT IS
INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE AT
THIS TIME.
WE HAVE TAKEN A MEAN BETWEEN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE FRIDAY
INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCES NOTED ON OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THE COLD AIR AND MOISTURE. LOW POPS WILL REMAIN
ADVERTISED AT THIS TIME WITH SIGNS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING
OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A WARM NOSE IS PREVALENT ALOFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. THE 850 MB COLD FRONT ARRIVES INTO
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER ON SATURDAY AND HELPS TO DEEPEN THE
COLD AIR. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF A RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN MIX JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE DFW METRO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE SLEET MIXING
IN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY AFTERNOON.
A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION THIS FAR OUT
DUE TO MANY DETAILS NEEDING TO BE RESOLVED. REFINEMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK AS THE MODELS GET A
BETTER GRASP ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE.
05/
Something else about the TV meteorologists that many of us follow on social media - they seem more hesitant about the wintry precipitation forecast than they do about the Arctic chill forecast. I'd hate to have several days below freezing without some beautiful whiteness on the ground (I don't live in the Grayson County Tundras anymore) .... but while the TV meteorologists have to focus on wintry precipitation threats, that's never been a strong possibility with this system. It is possible, yes, but it could just be dry.