Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

What about the euro? Does it show potential winter weather for North Texas too?

We only have free access to the European model out to 240 hours (10 days). This period which we're discussing is just beyond that realm.

[hriverajr]

I agree Portastorm. I was just referring to the actual run itself. I am hoping for winter fun as much as you are. Something different from the unbearable summers here.

[Portastorm]

I agree Portastorm. I was just referring to the actual run itself. I am hoping for winter fun as much as you are. Something different from the unbearable summers here.

Oh, I know ... and to be fair, you're absolutely right. The surface progs and even the 500mb levels on the GFS op runs suggest the coldest air stays north and east of us. To date it doesn't appear like a direct, thar-she-blows type unleashing of polar air. But the pattern does appear to be changing back to a colder, stormier pattern after Christmas.

And yes, you who lives in Del Rio ... you know about "unbearable summers" better than most. As someone who has in-laws and family in Del Rio, I also know of which you speak!

[TheProfessor]

Is there a threat for flooding for parts of North Texas. NWS is predicting 2-3 inches of rain this weekend and the ground is still saturated from all the ice.

[Portastorm]

Interesting status update on Facebook from Wxrisk.com (David Tolleris):

**ALERT** POTENTIAL for prolonged period of SERIOUS winter wx DEC 30- JAN 15. POLAR VORTEX Looks to be forced SOUTH- flipping AO to Neg

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Oh, Tolleris....

I love his passion, but he and Bastardi really love to shout to the mountaintops that Cold is coming and Hell's comin with it.

[Portastorm]

Oh, Tolleris....

I love his passion, but he and Bastardi really love to shout to the mountaintops that Cold is coming and Hell's comin with it.

Yeah ... he is probe to hyperbole like Joe. But one thing I've noticed about DT is that he is quick to admit when he's wrong and has blown a forecast. I have not noticed that about JB.

We'll see if they're right soon enough, eh?!

[hriverajr]

Haha little snow bulls eye in Del Rio according to Canadian (just having fun)

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/413732672603578368/photo/1

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Oh, Tolleris....

I love his passion, but he and Bastardi really love to shout to the mountaintops that Cold is coming and Hell's comin with it.

Yeah ... he is probe to hyperbole like Joe. But one thing I've noticed about DT is that he is quick to admit when he's wrong and has blown a forecast. I have not noticed that about JB.

We'll see if they're right soon enough, eh?!

That's true, and unlike JB, Tolleris will hedge a bit, which is needed with long range grandioso claims.

[Comanche]

Post from WSI mentions the PV as well...

WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 1h

12Z GFS op forecast now splitting stratospheric polar vortex at the end of 11-15 day forecast pic.twitter.com/2DFbc2Arek

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Plotted a Meteogram for my brother in Rapid City, SD based off the GFS long range.

LOL, a balmy high of -30F on 1/4.

[Comanche]

Plotted a Meteogram for my brother in Rapid City, SD based off the GFS long range.

LOL, a balmy high of -30F on 1/4.

Stock up on firewood and liquor!! Maybe Porta can redirect his Grey Goose fleet to the Dakotas....(humanitarian mission).

[dhweather]

Plotted a Meteogram for my brother in Rapid City, SD based off the GFS long range.

LOL, a balmy high of -30F on 1/4.

That's fun cold. Where you can get a pot of boiling water, go outside and toss it up in the air, and it evaporates almost instantly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_BL_9xyRco


Of course the temps would get really old after about 10 minutes of play time.

[dhweather]

Oh the FWD folks have posted their SKYWARN training schedule for 2014:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/skywarnsch.php?file=sptrsch

[Portastorm]

Oh the FWD folks have posted their SKYWARN training schedule for 2014:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/skywarnsch.php?file=sptrsch

Thanks dhweather! This is very good and helpful information. I'm going to include it over on the US & Caribbean Weather Forum as well and mention on the Texas Weather Board page on Facebook.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro is only in through 138hrs on my workstation. Should be fully in within the next 30 min. Ensembles won't be in fully for another 60-90 min. I do agree that the general pattern over the coming weeks might be conducive to the transport of cold Arctic air southward toward Texas by the end of the month and into the first week or so in January. Too soon to believe any model run about late December, though.

[Comanche]

12Z Euro is only in through 138hrs on my workstation. Should be fully in within the next 30 min. Ensembles won't be in fully for another 60-90 min. I do agree that the general pattern over the coming weeks might be conducive to the transport of cold Arctic air southward toward Texas by the end of the month and into the first week or so in January. Too soon to believe any model run about late December, though.

BAH HUMBUG!!

[wxman57]

Plotted a Meteogram for my brother in Rapid City, SD based off the GFS long range.

LOL, a balmy high of -30F on 1/4.

I was curious so I plotted it myself. Note that the final time point on the graphic is 6am on the 4th.

[dhweather]

Plotted a Meteogram for my brother in Rapid City, SD based off the GFS long range.

LOL, a balmy high of -30F on 1/4.

I was curious so I plotted it myself. Note that the final time point on the graphic is 6am on the 4th.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/rapgfs12zdec19.gif

Like I said, fun for about 10 minutes. Good lord that's cold!

[dhweather]

For entertainment/discussion purposes only. The 12Z GFS 384 hours out - for Jan 4, 2014.




Uploaded with ImageShack.us