Texas Winter 2013-2014

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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2721 Postby Portastorm » Thu Dec 26, 2013 5:35 pm

Larry Cosgrove today on Facebook as did the Texas Weather Board express growing concern for the timeframe of Jan. 3-6 and a southern winter storm possibility. Operational models don't show it yet and ensembles are offering some hints. I suspect we'll have increasing chatter here in this forum soon enough on these possibilities. It should also be noted that both the GFS and Euro op runs lately have been volatile and changing.

The teleconnection indices however still look solid for a -EPO/-AO/+PNA coming up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2722 Postby hriverajr » Thu Dec 26, 2013 6:04 pm

Bastardi is starting to worry about an eastern ridge...hehehe
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2723 Postby orangeblood » Thu Dec 26, 2013 6:48 pm

hriverajr wrote:Bastardi is starting to worry about an eastern ridge...hehehe


Yeah, according to the new Euro Weeklies there is a Massive Northeast US to Nova Scotia Ridge lasting the 1st 3 weeks of January. It forces the Jet Stream way south across the southern US. With this NE US Block and the negative EPO, could be a perfect recipe for extremely low heights across the southern plains in the coming few weeks.
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#2724 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Dec 26, 2013 6:51 pm

So its starting to look better for us winter lovers in Texas?
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Re:

#2725 Postby orangeblood » Thu Dec 26, 2013 7:16 pm

TheProfessor wrote:So its starting to look better for us winter lovers in Texas?


Yes, I would say so....most signals are and most importantly plenty of cold air to tap into if those systems do dig further south than normal
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Re:

#2726 Postby Portastorm » Thu Dec 26, 2013 7:20 pm

TheProfessor wrote:So its starting to look better for us winter lovers in Texas?


Not sure I'm quite so bullish as my friend orangeblood ... but I would say right now, these is just some educated speculation from a few pro mets and educated amateurs. There are some signs and suggestions that the pattern developing may prove to be beneficial for those of us who like wintry weather in the Southern Plains in the next few weeks. But I will caution that we're a long, long ways from where anyone should get their hopes up. These ideas we're kicking around now, TheProfessor, they're what I would consider of the "hmmm...now that's interesting" variety. They have merit but it's far from seeing a winter storm over Dallas in the 5-day time frame on both the GFS and European models. Make sense?

Stay tuned.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2727 Postby orangeblood » Thu Dec 26, 2013 7:29 pm

And now the latest GFS Ensembles back up the Euro showing the core of the cold coming down into the central plains as opposed to the Northeast like the current pattern. This Northeast Ridge I referred to earlier should help to prevent the core of the cold from shifting east. This pattern shift is forecast to begin around day 9-10, as opposed to day 15, so forecast is starting to gain some confidence.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2728 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Dec 26, 2013 7:39 pm

Speaking of cold air.....

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=2 ... K49-PNSAFG

Anyone heard of Chicken, Alaska?


:cold: :cold: :cold:
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Re: Re:

#2729 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Dec 26, 2013 7:44 pm

Portastorm wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:So its starting to look better for us winter lovers in Texas?


Not sure I'm quite so bullish as my friend orangeblood ... but I would say right now, these is just some educated speculation from a few pro mets and educated amateurs. There are some signs and suggestions that the pattern developing may prove to be beneficial for those of us who like wintry weather in the Southern Plains in the next few weeks. But I will caution that we're a long, long ways from where anyone should get their hopes up. These ideas we're kicking around now, TheProfessor, they're what I would consider of the "hmmm...now that's interesting" variety. They have merit but it's far from seeing a winter storm over Dallas in the 5-day time frame on both the GFS and European models. Make sense?

Stay tuned.


Yes, I have definitely gotten excited about a potential winter storm occurring. only to have the models trend different in the opposite direction.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2730 Postby ronyan » Thu Dec 26, 2013 7:55 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:Speaking of cold air.....

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=2 ... K49-PNSAFG

Anyone heard of Chicken, Alaska?


:cold: :cold: :cold:


According to Wikipedia, Chicken, AK has 17 inhabitants and is close to the border with Canada. But wow, that is some cold air...will it eventually head towards the plains? Time will clarify that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2731 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 26, 2013 8:03 pm

orangeblood wrote:And now the latest GFS Ensembles back up the Euro showing the core of the cold coming down into the central plains as opposed to the Northeast like the current pattern. This Northeast Ridge I referred to earlier should help to prevent the core of the cold from shifting east. This pattern shift is forecast to begin around day 9-10, as opposed to day 15, so forecast is starting to gain some confidence.


The PNA is not going to be too positive more neutral than anything else. This would likely prevent any major western ridge to move too far east. In a previous post I mentioned a flare of convection across the dateline and it has now grown and moved further northeast east of Hawaii. This is a very strong tropical connection likely signaling a major storm system to effect us with the next 5-10 days.

Ridging off the NE is prime to block storms and you bundle energy at the base of troughs in the southern plains. Not the sheared junk from a SE ridge.
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#2732 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 26, 2013 8:18 pm

And not to forget an update on SST's. There is still a large warm pool that is intensifying in the NE Pacific. EPO is currently relaxing from it's tanks. It's still possible and likely it will continue to play a significant role as we get deeper into winter. It has already culminated into the coldest start to winter in at least a decade.

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Last edited by Ntxw on Thu Dec 26, 2013 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2733 Postby Portastorm » Thu Dec 26, 2013 8:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:And now the latest GFS Ensembles back up the Euro showing the core of the cold coming down into the central plains as opposed to the Northeast like the current pattern. This Northeast Ridge I referred to earlier should help to prevent the core of the cold from shifting east. This pattern shift is forecast to begin around day 9-10, as opposed to day 15, so forecast is starting to gain some confidence.


The PNA is not going to be too positive more neutral than anything else. This would likely prevent any major western ridge to move too far east. In a previous post I mentioned a flare of convection across the dateline and it has now grown and moved further northeast east of Hawaii. This is a very strong tropical connection likely signaling a major storm system to effect us with the next 5-10 days.

Ridging off the NE is prime to block storms and you bundle energy at the base of troughs in the southern plains. Not the sheared junk from a SE ridge.


That is, essentially, what Larry Cosgrove was talking about on Facebook earlier today. He believes the MJO signal will strengthen as convection in the tropics is heating up. The subsequent storm will strengthen the sub Aleutian low which, in turn, pumps the Alaskan ridge down into the CONUS. I know our friend srainhoutx mentioned something similar as well.

Goes to show that there is a lot more to watching the weather than looking at a particular computer model run, eh?!
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2734 Postby Portastorm » Thu Dec 26, 2013 8:25 pm

As you can see from the graphic below, the EPO is forecasted to dive deeply negative again. The NAO looks to be strongly positive. The latter suggests high pressure ridging in the Eastern US. And the PNA positive which suggests ridging out west and a trough over the Central US. If the NAO stays strongly positive that could create a blocking pattern where a deep, cold trough would impact the Intermountain West and the Plains. Interesting to consider the possibilities ahead.

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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2735 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Dec 26, 2013 8:42 pm

Keep an eye on the -WPO/-EPO regime as well as the slightly positive PNA. The deterministic long range 12Z Euro flipped to a pattern that the longer range GEFS and Euro weeklies have been 'sniffing' the past week. One can see the shift of the colder anamolies from the Hudson Bay Region back W to our source Regions of Eastern Alaska/NW Territories of Western Canada. My hunch is after a strong cold shot early next week with a stronger storm developing across the Gulf and turning NE, the next shot of colder air arrives near January 6-7, +/- a day or two with a storm track just West of the Appalachian chain and dropping a very deep trough into the Great Basin/Inter Mountain West and Plains. The 12Z Euro ensemble mean is also more suggestive of such a pattern developing much more than the OP Euro suggested lending a bit of credence to such a scenario. There are some indications that those -50F temps building in our source Region will drop very far S into Mexico and the Polar front may drop as far S as the NW Caribbean. What we will need to monitor is a strong/potent 5H low dropping S into the base of the trough and tapping a noisy sub tropical jet with abundant moisture.if the trends continue into next week, we will have to monitor things a bit more closely. We will see.
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#2736 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 26, 2013 9:09 pm

Fun stats of the day

Number of DFW freezes this season (since 1st freeze): 19

2011-2012 freezes for the season total: 14

We're going to add at least 2 more before December is out. A long way to go for the record of 62 from winter of 77-78 but hey we're almost a third way there with a third of the season over!

Houston freezes to date: 6
2011-2012 seasonal total: 5

Austin freezes to date: 9
2011-2012 seasonal total: 7
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#2737 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Dec 26, 2013 9:18 pm

62 freezes? Goodness gracious. It looks like things are becoming more active. That warm pool from the SST map has grown significantly. Holy moly.
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Re:

#2738 Postby orangeblood » Thu Dec 26, 2013 9:36 pm

Ntxw wrote:And not to forget an update on SST's. There is still a large warm pool that is intensifying in the NE Pacific. EPO is currently relaxing from it's tanks. It's still possible and likely it will continue to play a significant role as we get deeper into winter. It has already culminated into the coldest start to winter in at least a decade.



Also, the warm waters immediately off the coast of Nova Scotia and NE Canada should add more credence to the NE Ridge over the coming weeks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#2739 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 26, 2013 9:54 pm

Funny thing about Chicken, AK... I have been four wheeling through there in late July and received some wicked sleet storms.

I've driven from Bettles, Alaska to Houston.
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#2740 Postby Jarodm12 » Thu Dec 26, 2013 9:54 pm

Hey take a look at the 00z nam 69-84 seems to be hinting at light snow sunday for north and northeast Texas gfs has been showing the same over the past few days? seems there isnt alot of moisture but who knows
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