Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

I would take the bet that you won't be above 26F Tuesday morning. Our temps here usually run close to Houston's.

New GFS has warm advection starting across SE TX before sunrise Tuesday with the high center in Louisiana by midnight Monday and all the way in Alabama by sunrise Tuesday. That may put a halt to falling temps in Houston in the middle of the night on Monday.

The wheels are coming off the wagon now ...

[ronyan]

Meteogram plot from the 12z GFS run for IAH shows 40F as the high on Monday, very cold. If trends continue Sunday night may actually be the coldest night before any warm advection has the chance to start. Winds will still be fairly high though.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Had a low of 31F this morning, houses rooftops and cars were cover with a nice layer of ice! To my knowledge this is the 3rd (light) freeze in my backyard so far this winter compare that to last year in which I only had 1!!

What the heck man, 32.2F here. It has literally gotten to 33F over 5 times this year at TPB weather center and below freezing once Lol

[wxman57]

New meteograms. Not quite as cold on the 12Z GFS. Love the 70s on Thursday, though not the rain.

[ronyan]

New meteograms. Not quite as cold on the 12Z GFS. Love the 70s on Thursday, though not the rain.

Looks about the same at IAH...maybe a little warmer low Monday night but I don't see much change from yesterday except that it's colder during the day on Monday.

[srainhoutx]

I would take the bet that you won't be above 26F Tuesday morning. Our temps here usually run close to Houston's.

New GFS has warm advection starting across SE TX before sunrise Tuesday with the high center in Louisiana by midnight Monday and all the way in Alabama by sunrise Tuesday. That may put a halt to falling temps in Houston in the middle of the night on Monday.

The wheels are coming off the wagon now ...

The 12Z GFS suggests a chance of some wintry weather on the 11th and then a much stronger system near the 17th. I'll hedge my chances and make sure the pool equipment is wrapped and let wxman57 enjoy is balmy upper 20's. I had a low of 27F here in NW Harris County last night and it sure doesn't feel warm out there today. Even my White Labs didn't want to stay out with their morning tennis ball run in the Cul de Sac. They headed straight back to the warmth of their insulated garage.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im not gonna lie. pretty frustrating that we have had some memorable cold blasts here and Houston still hasnt had anything significant. Just goes to show how the conditions have to be just right down here. A lot of winter left though.

[wxman57]

The current flow pattern is not very conducive to long-range planning. Anything seen in the GFS beyond 5-6 days will probably change significantly over the coming week. Interesting deepening trof across the U.S. in the 13-15 day time frame, but it's the details that matter. I.E., cold and dry like Mon/Tue or cold and wet with possible frozen precip? Or the way I like to look at it, maybe we'll have a big trof to the west of Texas with nice, warm southerly flow and temps in the 70s to 80 degrees in 2 weeks!

[BigB0882]

No, I will give you "warmth" if we can't have any snow but absolutely NO WAY to 80s in January/Feb. Just NOOO! That is HOT.

[wxman57]

No, I will give you "warmth" if we can't have any snow but absolutely NO WAY to 80s in January/Feb. Just NOOO! That is HOT.

Nah, that's not hot. Were you around for the winter of '85-'86? IAH hit upper 80s to 91F the 3rd to 4th week of February. Best winter yet here. Sunny and warm almost all winter. I remember going swimming at my apartment pool that February. Ah, the good old days...

[Portastorm]

No, I will give you "warmth" if we can't have any snow but absolutely NO WAY to 80s in January/Feb. Just NOOO! That is HOT.

Nah, that's not hot. Were you around for the winter of '85-'86? IAH hit upper 80s to 91F the 3rd to 4th week of February. Best winter yet here. Sunny and warm almost all winter. I remember going swimming at my apartment pool that February. Ah, the good old days...

You know, if I didn't like you so darn much and find posts like the above extremely funny ...

We're going to find a way to thwart your plans, sir. Even the PWC mets have put down the Grey Goose in an effort to work up some advantageous winter weather for Texas in the weeks ahead.

[txprog]

No, I will give you "warmth" if we can't have any snow but absolutely NO WAY to 80s in January/Feb. Just NOOO! That is HOT.

Nah, that's not hot. Were you around for the winter of '85-'86? IAH hit upper 80s to 91F the 3rd to 4th week of February. Best winter yet here. Sunny and warm almost all winter. I remember going swimming at my apartment pool that February. Ah, the good old days...

What about Feb 96? DFW had 8 degrees on the 4th, 95 on the 22nd. IAH, 21 and 89.

[BigB0882]

95 degrees in February!? I didn't think it was possible in Dallas. Geez!

[wxman57]

No, I will give you "warmth" if we can't have any snow but absolutely NO WAY to 80s in January/Feb. Just NOOO! That is HOT.

Nah, that's not hot. Were you around for the winter of '85-'86? IAH hit upper 80s to 91F the 3rd to 4th week of February. Best winter yet here. Sunny and warm almost all winter. I remember going swimming at my apartment pool that February. Ah, the good old days...

What about Feb 96? DFW had 8 degrees on the 4th, 95 on the 22nd. IAH, 21 and 89.

Yep, '95-'96 was pretty good, too, particularly February. Not that 8 degree part...

Looking at the 12Z Euro 500mb flow and anomaly and it's quite impressive at 240hrs. Very deep trof/upper low in west Texas and lots of energy getting ready to dive southward out of the Gulf of Alaska. Signals an active southern storm track. That's how you get snow in Texas.

[srainhoutx]

^^^

I was telling Portastorm the 500mb synoptic pattern sure looks like what we witnessed late in November into early/mid December. We are entering Winter Weather 'primetime' from a climatilogical standpoint for Central/SE Texas.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Wxman57... I went ahead and donated $100 to storm2k with an attached Arctic juju front to fight your evil heating powers!!

[WeatherGuesser]

Did I see somebody post that this looks like the last big blast for a while? Or was the only for TX? Or was I dreaming it?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

You were dreaming it. Granted long range models are tough to figure, but the -EPO isn't going away with the warm NORTH Pacific waters and we have great snowpack and cold source regions.

A greenland block would be all it takes to have extended cold down here, instead of a day or two.

[Portastorm]

Wxman57... I went ahead and donated $100 to storm2k with an attached Arctic juju front to fight your evil heating powers!!

We appreciate it!

Meanwhile, I'm not ready to post my "I was wrong and wxman57 was right" post just yet. I'm going to wait a few days. But the post is already written and saved.

Damn progressive flow ...

[wxman57]

Wxman57... I went ahead and donated $100 to storm2k with an attached Arctic juju front to fight your evil heating powers!!

Good luck on that. Meanwhile, I applied a liberal coating of grease to all of Greenland to keep things moving along. No block allowed...