Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Strong cold front is approachiung Central America, same cold front that has caused extreme cold temperatures in United States.

[abajan]

Just heard on the news that due to another trough, St. Vincent is bracing for more heavy showers.
Parts of Barbados are presently experiencing that weather.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST MON JAN 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AMPLIFIES INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. RIDGE PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC MOVES SOUTH. TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS AN OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY ERODE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AMPLIFIES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
IS GOING TO BE MORE RESILIENT. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-BUILDS FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...A SHARP DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS A FEW PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND
USVI TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FCST PERIOD. SHRA
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF VCSH ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR. EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SFC UP TO 2
KFT AT 10-30 KT...DECREASING LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. SWELLS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 84 / 30 30 20 30
STT 76 85 76 85 / 40 40 20 30

[cycloneye]

Just heard on the news that due to another trough, St. Vincent is bracing for more heavy showers.
Parts of Barbados are presently experiencing that weather.

Here is the information about this. Hopefully nothing occurs there.

KINGSTOWN, St. Vincent, Monday January 6, 2014, CMC – Two weeks after a low level trough caused death and destruction in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, residents were bracing for the passage of another weather system late on Monday.

At least nine people were killed and four others remain missing after the Christmas Eve weather system caused hundreds of millions of dollars (One EC dollar = US$0.37 cents) in damages.

Weather forecasters have been advising that a trough system is expected to begin affecting the island late Monday into early Tuesday and that it was located east of the Lesser Antilles.

The advisory said that the weather system would add to the general instability across the eastern Caribbean as moisture levels increase.

“This system could produce some moderate to heavy showers over the Windward Islands,” the Met Office said.

Meanwhile, schools which were due to re-open after the Christmas holidays on Monday will remain closed for another week, according to the Ministry of Education.

Some of the schools, which are being used as emergency shelters, are still without pipe-borne water. Most of the roadways have been cleared even as residents continue to be affected by intermittent water problems.

http://www.caribbean360.com/index.php/n ... z2pdvyWKz1

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some showers will move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST TUE JAN 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. RIDGE PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS. A SURFACE HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. THE SHOWERS ARE FAST MOVING AND
THEREFORE THE ASSOCIATED TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE GENERALLY
MINIMAL. AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS TODAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESPECIALLY THIS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT A
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS AN OVERALL RIDGE
PATTERN RE-BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A SHARP DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PWAT
VALUES WILL DECREASE FROM UP TO 1.50 INCHES THIS MORNING TO LESS
THAN 1.0 INCHES TONIGHT AND THEREAFTER. THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL DURG THE FCST PRD. HOWEVER...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONT TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AND MAINLY PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND
SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. PREVAILING
ESE WINDS BLO FL200 BTW 10-30 KTS WILL CONT THROUGH 07/18Z. OCNL SFC
WND GUST OF 20-25 KTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS.BRIEF
MTN TOP OBSCR WILL REMAIN PSBL MAINLY OVR EASTERN MTN RANGE OF PR.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL FLT WX HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE...WITH OUTER EXPOSED WATERS LIKELY
TO REMAIN NEAR 7 FEET MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 72 / 30 20 30 50
STT 85 74 86 75 / 40 20 30 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST TUE JAN 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES SOUTH. TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH A FEW ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
FAST MOVING SHOWERS OVER E PR AND USVI...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN COASTAL AREAS WITH
TRADE WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW 850MB WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME BRINGING SOME
CLOUD CLUSTERS AS WELL AS A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
-SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS
OF VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PR.
EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SFC UP TO 2 KFT AT 10-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 84 / 20 30 50 50
STT 74 86 75 85 / 20 30 50 50

[Macrocane]

Strong cold front is producing strong winds and cooling down the temperatures in Central America:

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST TUE JAN 7 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AFTER FORMING NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS BELOW 40 THOUSAND FEET...BUT PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS DROPPED OVER ONE HALF INCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
ACCORDING TO THE 08/00Z SOUNDING TO EXACTLY ONE INCH. NEXT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS DUE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER PEAK ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH EAST NORTHEAST ONSHORE WINDS THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
DECENT SHALLOW FAST-MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH OF THOSE
NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH MAINLY IN NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. CHANGES TO GRIDS MADE ONLY TO REFLECT
THIS UPDATED THINKING. A FEW DAYTIME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN
THE INTERIOR PORTION OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...BUT
EVEN LESS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Trade wind showers will continue to move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST WED JAN 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS
ALOFT...AND SUPPORT THE STRONG TRADE WIND INVERSION CAP ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH IN TURN WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT LOW LEVELS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...
CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. THE RIDGE WILL BE
FURTHER REINFORCED AND REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FAIRLY STRONG AND DOMINANT EASTERLY TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING FREQUENT INTERVALS OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE PERIODS
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
MAINLY PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE EASTERLY TRADES DECREASE
AS WELL AS THE FREQUENCY OF THE TRADE WIND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
EMBEDDED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE NEXT SURGE
OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE LATER TODAY WITH YET ANOTHER BAND
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED THE AREAS MOSTLY AFFECTED AS
A RESULT OF THE PRESENT AND EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. DURING THE DAYTIME...
PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTION
OF PUERTO RICO...WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND LESSER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IN SIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY SINK FURTHER SOUTHWARDS
TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATLANTIC
HIGH REPOSITIONS ITSELF NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO IS STILL
SOME WAYS OUT SO MORE TO COME ON THIS LATER ON IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUICK
PASSING -SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BRINGING
VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PR. EASTERLY
WINDS FROM THE SFC UP TO 2 KFT AT 10-25 KT....BECOMING GUSTY AFTER
08/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS AND CHOPPY SEAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL
FRIDAY. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE DUE
TO THE WIND DRIVEN CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 69 / 30 60 60 60
STT 85 74 85 74 / 30 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST WED JAN 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STRONG
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
ALSO WILL INHIBIT THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. BASICALLY...THE ISLAND`S WEATHER WILL CHARACTERIZED BY
MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO SUGGEST A DRY AIR MASS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION. MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING AS WELL AS AMDAR/MDCRS AVIATION
DATA INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE AROUND 800MB...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI TODAY.
BASED ON THE SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS...BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HAVE ALSO PREVAILED FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO ANEGADA
PASSAGE. THERE IS A BAND OF MOISTURE JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS THAN WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT BUT POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND. MODEL TIME-SERIES PLOTS SUGGEST THAN MOST
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW 850 MB DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS EXCEPT LATE TONIGHT AND LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION...
IF ANY...DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...
THE BRISK TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO CARRY A FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. ALL IN ALL...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MARKERS ARE FORESEEN IN NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN PROMOTES FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 5-6 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE
BUOYS WHILE IN THE OFFSHORE BUOY 41043 HAVE BEEN SUBSIDING IN THE
LAST 48 HRS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE REMAINED OVER 7 FEET. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUE TO EXPECT WINDS UP TO 21 KT AND SEAS OF 7 FEET
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS OF AROUND 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 71 82 / 40 20 50 50
STT 74 85 73 84 / 30 20 50 50

[cycloneye]

Torrential Rains in Honduras

Tegucigalpa - Rivers swollen by torrential rains have left some 20,000 people cut off in Honduras, the government said Tuesday.

Evacuations were ordered in the western department of Atlantida, the emergency situations commission called COPECO said.

The department’s capital city La Ceiba, the country’s third largest, 400 km (250 miles) north of the capital Tegucigalpa, was particularly hard hit.

Colon departament also had people stranded by raging waters, the commission said.

Heavy rains were forecast to last for hours more and residents were warned to watch out for landslides and flooding.

http://www.mb.com.ph/torrential-rains-i ... 00-people/

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another day with trade wind showers moving thru PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST THU JAN 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO MAINTAIN OVERALL DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ALOFT. THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. THE COMBINATION
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
TO INHIBIT/SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED THAT
OCCASIONAL BANDS OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO ENTER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND AFFECT THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THESE SHOWERS WERE PRODUCING SHORT
BURST OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT THIS SCENARIO TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE
OVERALL GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT BRIEF
INTERVALS OF LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES DURING MOST OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS.

LONG TERM WISE ...GLOBAL FORECAST MODEL SUGGEST A TUTT INDUCED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WELL EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
FORECAST TO FORM AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR HOWEVER THE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO HOLD
ITS PLACE OVER THE REGION AND NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE REGION AT THIS TIME. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND SEE IF AND HOW THIS FEATURE UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA WITH SOME SHRA CAUSING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT THE
LOCAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...THE USVI AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. EASTERLY SFC WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS
WITH BRIEF GUSTS PSBL NEAR THE SHRA. SFC WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
AFT 09/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT DUE TO
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND COASTAL
WATER FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 84 71 / 30 40 40 30
STT 85 74 85 75 / 30 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST THU JAN 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN COAST OF USA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...REINFORCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BASICALLY...THE
ISLAND`S WEATHER WILL CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES AND
A FEW TRADE SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVED OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY. AT THIS TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING THE BAND MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF PUERTO RICO.
WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT THIS BAND WILL BE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE
BY THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS EVENING...LIMITING SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY AIR MASS AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN FACT...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW
ONE INCH THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER TO
NORMAL LEVELS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...EXPECT LOTS OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION...IF ANY...DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. IN ADDITION...THE BRISK EASTERLY WINDS CARRY A FEW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME
TO TIME. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS AT 15-25KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUST OF 30KT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FEET
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...MARINERS ARE
URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN
AN ENHANCED FIRE RISK ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE FUELS ARE NOW DRYING
RAPIDLY. THERE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CLOUD COVER TOMORROW
THAN TODAY WITH LOWER FUEL MOISTURE VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 72 83 / 0 0 20 20
STT 74 84 74 84 / 0 0 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Trade wind showers will continue to move thru PR and VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST FRI JAN 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS HISPANIOLA OR PUERTO RICO
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
RIDGE LATE SUNDAY. PRESENT SOLUTIONS SHOW THE RIDGE EAST OF PUERTO
RICO AFTER THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SHIFTS TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AND THEN BACK TO JUST NORTH OF THE MONA
PASSAGE BY TUESDAY. THE TRANSITION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A CUT OFF LOW TO
JUST UNDER 1000 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN WILL CAUSE THIS
RIDGE TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAKEN. MOISTURE AT MID
LEVELS IS VERY LOW EXCEPT FOR SMALL TRANSIENT PATCHES ON MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF STRONG
TROUGHS AT UPPER LEVELS PROPEL A SUCCESSION OF FRONTS THROUGH THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS SERVES TO WEAKEN THE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE LOWER
LEVELS. BEST MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUED TO SPAWN SMALL SHOWERS
THAT MOVED FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
OCCASIONALLY ACROSS LAND AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS. LARGE GAPS IN THE
MOISTURE GENERATING THESE SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DISAPPEARED BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO OPEN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN
AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH JUST A FEW SPORADIC SHOWERS CROSSING
INTO THE INTERIOR OR SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES AROUND 2 PM AST TODAY AND
THEN BEGINS TO RETURN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
LUQUILLO RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT MOISTURE
INCREASES CONSIDERABLY UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE ABATES AND SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WEAK FRONTS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC MOVE THROUGH ON NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH PASSING -SHRA ACROSS ALL
LOCAL ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. EAST NORTHEAST SFC WINDS
AROUND 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 10/12Z. HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY FOR SEAS...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE SEEN
LATER NEXT WEEK WHEN WINDS ABATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 84 76 / 20 30 20 50
STT 86 76 86 76 / 10 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI JAN 10 2014


.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THROUGH
EARLY TUE THEN WEAKEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SFC TROF EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION WITH SHOWERS BECOMING HEAVIER SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.
STILL THE RISK OF LIGHT SHOWERS SUN AND MON UNDER BRISK TRADE
WINDS AND A WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.

TRADES WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY TUE THROUGH THU AS BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH
WEAKENS AND A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE ATLC. IT ALSO
TURNS DRIER LIKELY DUE TO LESS TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS/STRENGTHENS AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR TJSJ AND THE USVI TERMINAL LATER TODAY. BRISK ENE
WINDS AT 15-25KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUST OF 30KT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUE WILL KEEP ROUGH
SEAS 6-8 FT. TRADES WEAKEN TUE-THU OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 6 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 82 77 83 / 10 50 50 40
STT 77 78 77 78 / 10 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. An increase in showers is expected Sunday thru Tuesday as a trough moves by.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
817 AM AST SAT JAN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK THEN STRENGTHEN LATE NEXT WEEK. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN THEN WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY TUE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RISK OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST DURING THE WEEKEND AND
THROUGH EARLY TUE ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AND LOW-
LEVEL TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES A BIT ON THE
UNSTABLE SIDE WHICH SHOULD ALSO AID IN DESTABILIZATION. AFTER
TUE...TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AS BERMUDA-
AZORES HIGH WEAKENS. AIR MASS ALSO DRIES OUT AND BECOME MORE
STABLE THROUGH TIME LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT JSJ...USVI AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS TERMINALS WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BUT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH SUN DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
NEXT WEEK AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH SUN. WINDS
AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 30 80 50 80
STT 85 75 85 75 / 30 90 60 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST SAT JAN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
SVRL DAYS THEN STRENGTHEN LATE NEXT WEEK. TRADES WILL WEAKEN MID
NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS MOVE INTO THE WRN ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...12Z GFS/GEFS SHOW WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT TONIGHT
THRU TUE ASSOCIATED WITH A H25 SHORTWAVE-TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE NW WHILE THE 11/00Z ECWMF IS DEEPER AND BETTER DEFINED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE AND SHOWS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. THIS WILL PROMOTE
SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. AT THE SFC...MODELS SHOW TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE
INCREASING TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE AND A SFC
TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. IN SUMMARY...IT APPEARS VERY GOOD CHANCES
OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND MOST OF PR XCPT SOUTH COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
STILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES MOST PLACES XCPT
NEAR QUARTER INCH OVER EL YUNQUE.

H25 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS BETTER DEFINED ON THE 11/00Z
ECMWF WILL CROSS THE AREA TUE WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DEEP DRYING ON ITS WAKE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PLUMMETING BELOW AN INCH AND A SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD/STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH VERY DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
TRADES ALSO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY MID NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA-AZORES
HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST AND A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO THE
WRN ATLC WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 11/22Z. THEN...A BAND
OF SCT CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHRA WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT JSJ...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FM THE EAST 10-30 KT BELOW FL100 THROUGH AT LEAST SUN
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SUN WILL MAINTAIN 5-7 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. TRADES BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUN
AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN MOST PLACES WILL KEEP
FUEL MOISTURE VALUES UP THROUGH MON. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA ON TUE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AXIS WITH
DEEP DRYING ON ITS WAKE. VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER TUE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WILL DROP FUEL MOISTURE VALUES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
AND ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER IN THE SOUTH AND WEST COAST OF PR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 83 76 81 / 60 10 50 30
STT 77 78 78 78 / 40 20 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
922 PM AST SAT JAN 11 2014

.UPDATE...LATEST 12/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF ONLY 1.14 INCHES WITH VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...LATEST SATELITE AND RADAR IMAGES WERE SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST ACTIVITY WAS
NORTH AND EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE THE
WETTEST. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH HIGH POPS OVER THOSE AREAS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Trade wind showers will continue to move thru PR and VI today thru Monday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST SUN JAN 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE NOW OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE WEEKEND. MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MIGRATING HIGH PRESSURES WILL DOMINATE THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A CUT OFF LOW WILL FORM IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...MOVE NORTH AND THEN DRIFT WESTWARD
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA...DISSIPATING BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE HIGH
PRESSURES WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THAT WEAKEN
FROM WEDNESDAY TO THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA WILL SPIN OFF WEAK BOUNDARIES FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE
DRYING LATER DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY...MOVED ACROSS MOST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO.
SOME AREAS HAD AMOUNTS UPWARD OF ONE TENTH INCH. ANOTHER PATCH OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS TO MUCH THE SAME AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL BRING COOLER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE GFS
SHOWS 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DROPPING ABOUT 10 METERS MONDAY.
THICKNESSES EVENTUALLY RECOVER...BUT DRIER AIR CONTINUES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COMES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
ILLUSTRATED BY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER MAKES ONE MORE PLUNGE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DOUBLING ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE FREQUENT SHOWERS WE HAVE BEEN HAVING WITH THE LATEST BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH SEVERAL MORE
BANDS WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST BEFORE TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. ALTHOUGH IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THIS TIME WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...EXPECT MORE
SUNSHINE...AND MUCH FEWER SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER EL YUNQUE AND
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 2 TO 3 DEGREES TOO LOW THIS
MONTH AND HAVE RAISED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO RUNNING TOO LOW...ALTHOUGH CLEAR
SKIES...LESS MOISTURE AND LIGHTER WINDS COULD HELP INLAND TEMPERATURES
FALL LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA FOR TJSJ...TISX AND TIST UNTIL 12/10Z
WITH BRIEF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THEN VFR CONDS FOR ALL SITES THRU
REST OF PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR DUE TO QUICK MOVING -SHRA. WINDS
BLO FL100 E 15-22 KT TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 WAS RECORDING SEAS AROUND 8 FEET THIS MORNING
AND HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL 9
PM AST. FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 22 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 73 / 60 60 60 20
STT 85 75 85 74 / 40 40 40 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST SUN JAN 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RE-ESTABLISH AGAIN OVER THE REGION BY MID TO LATE
WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO A CUTOFF
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITHOUT IMPACTING THE ISLAND`S WEATHER. TRADE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN MID NEXT WEEK AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED OVER THE
AREA EARLY TODAY...MAINTAINING VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS PATCH WILL MOVE
WESTWARD INTO THE MONA PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
IN RESPONSE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER PATCH/BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST RISK OF SHOWERS
IS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...HOWEVER...THE REST OF
THE AREA MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO MOVING FROM TIME TO TIME. BY
TUESDAY...THE UPPER S/W TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
INDUCING AN UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE PATTERN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI. IF IT VERIFIES...EXPECT A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TUESDAY TO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH...TRADE WINDS
SHOWERS CANT RULED OUT...THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LESS FREQUENT
THAN THE FIRST WEEKS OF JANUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AFT 13/10Z. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BRING PASSING SHRA OVER THE TJSJ...TJPS AND THE USVI
AND THE LEEWARD TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FM 13/10Z TO 13/20Z. THEREAFTER...
VFR WITH NO NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN 5-6 FT SEAS
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER UP TO 7 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AMZ710. AS A RESULT. SCA CONTINUES IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 9 PM AST. SEAS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 7 FT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AROUND 15 KT
AND SEAS 3-5 FT MOST OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BKN-OVC SKIES TODAY AND MON WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER
LOW NEXT TWO DAYS. FIRE RISK EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUE-SAT AS DEEP
DRYING OCCURS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 82 74 81 / 40 40 10 0
STT 77 78 75 76 / 30 30 10 0