Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Texas Snowman]

The clock is ticking...any second, the Grinch is going to show back up and explain away all of our cold and snowy wishful thinking!

[Texas Snowman]

No comment on that 6z GFS, Heat Miser?!

Poor fella...he's doing all he can to hold on to whatever "warmth" he can find in the models. I suspect his task will grow more and more difficult in the days ahead.

Now THAT is the fearless and winter loving leader of the PWC that we all know and love!

Welcome back from your "progressive flow" exile, kind sir!

[ronyan]

Wxman is correct, there is a lack of any real cold air in Canada currently. The cold that is there is confined to a small area in North Central Canada.

We will need to see cross-polar flow get established to bring those temps down. As I understand, a -WPO is helpful at moving the air from Siberia over the pole and we could use help from it over the next week.

The 500mb maps look impressive at 10-15 days with a Mcfarland signature but it doesn't matter what the flow pattern is if the source region isn't cold.

[Ntxw]

The 500mb maps look impressive at 10-15 days with a Mcfarland signature but it doesn't matter what the flow pattern is if the source region isn't cold.

It matters. The -EPO (mcfarland's signature) IS the cold loading pattern for North America and by extension -WPO. You get it, it comes and if you don't have it (like now) it's gone. Mentioned over and over again cold in North America is tied to the Pacific. AO/NAO doesn't load the cold here as much, just lower heights.

[dhweather]

Tick tock tick tock, waiting for 12Z to finish rolling in. I'm not too excited through 192 hours. Western Canada is in the +30-40F anomaly range, so that's a problem.

[Ntxw]

Tick tock tick tock, waiting for 12Z to finish rolling in. I'm not too excited through 192 hours. Western Canada is in the +30-40F anomaly range, so that's a problem.

What's there not to be excited about?! You have cold nearby and a big storm crashing into the Pacific NW about to dive south/se with the ridge retrograding into the gulf of AK! Come on man

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Wxman is correct, there is a lack of any real cold air in Canada currently. The cold that is there is confined to a small area in North Central Canada.

We will need to see cross-polar flow get established to bring those temps down. As I understand, a -WPO is helpful at moving the air from Siberia over the pole and we could use help from it over the next week.

The 500mb maps look impressive at 10-15 days with a Mcfarland signature but it doesn't matter what the flow pattern is if the source region isn't cold.

Not an expert, but we don't need severe cold to have winter weather impacts. Despite the current "January Thaw", dewpoints in the metroplex are still in the low-to-mid teens. The cold air is already there.

[Portastorm]

No comment on that 6z GFS, Heat Miser?!

Poor fella...he's doing all he can to hold on to whatever "warmth" he can find in the models. I suspect his task will grow more and more difficult in the days ahead.

Now THAT is the fearless and winter loving leader of the PWC that we all know and love!

Welcome back from your "progressive flow" exile, kind sir!

Sorry if I scared or disappointed any of you ... the Grey Goose is flowing again in scenic southwest Travis County as we seek vodka cold for Texas!

[wxman57]

GFS looks pretty good through 192 hrs. A bit cold on the 22nd, though. Might be too warm for marathon runners this Sunday. Note that a week ago the GFS was forecasting a low in the 30s and a high in the low 50s this weekend. Now, temps are forecast to be 10-15 deg warmer this weekend. I like that 75 next Monday. Perhaps we can hit 80?

[Portastorm]

1 of the 50 0zECMWF Ensemble Members by day 9-10 is showing 1/2'' of Snow for McAllen and 4+ inches in Houston. For Dallas/Fort Worth 3 of the 50 Ensemble Members are showing winter weather....So there is a chance!

Just too add, 4 of the 50 0z Euro ensemble members showing show snow in Austin beginning on Day 9, with one showing 8-9 inches. Thought Porta might want to hear this.

Hey ... that's 9%!! Better odds than I've had lately.

Keep that great info coming, Big O!

[South Texas Storms]

I'm glad to see the models are looking more interesting in the long term compared to a few days ago. I think our best chance of wintry precip across central Texas is in the next month or so. Hopefully we can at least get a February 2011 like winter storm next month!

[wxman57]

Wait! What's this! Oh NOOOOO! Almost freezing temperatures on the 28th. I need to get to the store and stock up on supplies!

[orangeblood]

Tick tock tick tock, waiting for 12Z to finish rolling in. I'm not too excited through 192 hours. Western Canada is in the +30-40F anomaly range, so that's a problem.

It has been repeated numerous times on this board, the pattern change and the slowing of the progressive pattern is forecasted to occur around the 23rd of January, which is still 8-9 days out. Patience, the maps should start to get you more excited as we get closer

[ronyan]

Wxman is correct, there is a lack of any real cold air in Canada currently. The cold that is there is confined to a small area in North Central Canada.

We will need to see cross-polar flow get established to bring those temps down. As I understand, a -WPO is helpful at moving the air from Siberia over the pole and we could use help from it over the next week.

The 500mb maps look impressive at 10-15 days with a Mcfarland signature but it doesn't matter what the flow pattern is if the source region isn't cold.

Not an expert, but we don't need severe cold to have winter weather impacts. Despite the current "January Thaw", dewpoints in the metroplex are still in the low-to-mid teens. The cold air is already there.

Keep in mind that I'm relatively new to model analysis and the teleconnections. I've looked at the data for the EPO during major cold outbreaks and there is a strong correlation between it and cold outbreaks, as you have said. I'm not saying the pattern doesn't look good in 10 days. The 12z GFS @ 240 hrs starts to have that classic cold loading pattern for Canada, but still 10 days out and things change.

The main event for us in TX may be in the last few days of the month if current trends hold. Bears watching but wouldn't jump on it completely yet.

[ronyan]

Wait! What's this! Oh NOOOOO! Almost freezing temperatures on the 28th. I need to get to the store and stock up on supplies!

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zjan15.gif

I guess if you trust the surface temps at that 312 hr range...

[Texas Snowman]

Wait! What's this! Oh NOOOOO! Almost freezing temperatures on the 28th. I need to get to the store and stock up on supplies!

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zjan15.gif

Are you noticing that your Heat Miser posts are now being all but ignored?

[dhweather]

While I agree with NTXW, the Pacific plays a huge role in our weather, I had my tropical hat on last night. Looking at the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) at a high level, you can see correlations between colder and warmer periods in general.



For example, Texas had major hear and drought problems in the 50's, the AMO was +, some of the best cold weather the US has seen was in the 70's and 80's, the AMO was - , forward to Y2K, Texas has been back warmer than normal with major droughts again, the AMO is +

[South Texas Storms]

12z CMC looks pretty interesting in 10 days as it shows cold air heading south into Texas as a shortwave digs south just west of the state.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014011512/gem_z500_vort_us_41.png

[dhweather]

Joe B tweets

5 days ending 2 days before Super Bowl. Purple area starts more than 22F below normal.Would put severe strain on US

[Portastorm]

12z CMC looks pretty interesting in 10 days as it shows cold air heading south into Texas as a shortwave digs south just west of the state.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014011512/gem_z500_vort_us_41.png

Depending on source regions of the air to the north ... that map screams overrunning precip event for Texas ... at least until whatever energy is to our west organizes (or not). Such a map would allow a very moist flow from the Pacific. And you'd have a cold, shallow airmass at the surface. Again, how cold remains to be seen. Snow, sleet, or light rain/drizzle ... who knows. But I'll say this much ... those types of 500mb patterns in winter for Texas have yielded some nice winter weather.