ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[euro6208]

Latest update showing substantial warming for next few months. Here is the May, June, July forecast.

Classic El Nino.

[cycloneye]

The jury is still out about how ENSO will be in ASO. I would not embrace fully the models at this time as they have failed to forecast ENSO in the mid to long range. Is better IMO to follow the data in a weekly to monthly basis of the SOI,the subsurface waters,the PDO etc etc to see how things are evolving and then we can go from there.

[ninel conde]

http://i.imgur.com/9HPyDTW.gif

Latest update showing substantial warming for next few months. Here is the May, June, July forecast.

Classic El Nino.

if that occurs along with the incredibly stable atlantic and ultra dry air we may be looking at 3/1/0 . i would also assume with last season being so dead that this strong el nino will signal the end of the active period of 1995-2009.

[blp]

http://i.imgur.com/9HPyDTW.gif

Latest update showing substantial warming for next few months. Here is the May, June, July forecast.

Classic El Nino.

if that occurs along with the incredibly stable atlantic and ultra dry air we may be looking at 3/1/0 . i would also assume with last season being so dead that this strong el nino will signal the end of the active period of 1995-2009.

3/1/0 would be almost impossible in this modern satellite era IMO. Even in the worst of years you have subtropical development that will keep the numbers higher.

Also, how did you determine that the active era ended in 2009? The multidecadel higher than normal SST's was still in place last year. That has not changed since 1995 and a very important indicator.

[cycloneye]

Australian update at 1/14/14

Tropical Pacific remains ENSO-neutral

Issued on Tuesday 14 January 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state, with all indicators well within neutral bounds. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate this neutral ENSO state is likely to persist into the austral autumn. Some models suggest the central Pacific Ocean may warm during autumn and winter, while others remain near average. However, forecasts that span autumn have lower skill than forecasts at other times of year, and hence long-range model outlooks need to be used with more caution at this time of year. The Bureau will continue to monitor the ENSO state closely as forecasts become more reliable.

ENSO events (El Niño and La Niña) usually follow a typical life cycle. Events usually begin to develop during the austral autumn and winter months, mature during spring and summer, and rapidly weaken by the end of the following autumn.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[ninel conde]

SOI+ 26.4. this big spike in SOI should mean some temporary cooling.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

An eastward-propagating upwelling kelvin wave has destroyed the warm anomalies in the central Pacific, and it's headed eastward. No El Nino in the foreseeable future.

[Hammy]

i would also assume with last season being so dead that this strong el nino will signal the end of the active period of 1995-2009.

That line of thinking is contrary to the very real fact that 2010-12 with 19 storms each was the second most active three years on record (57 storms) behind 2003-05 (59)

[Ntxw]

An eastward-propagating upwelling kelvin wave has destroyed the warm anomalies in the central Pacific, and it's headed eastward. No El Nino in the foreseeable future.

This is very interesting. We are currently in a up-welling phase of the MJO, there is a major signal that has popped up over Indonesia and is ready to spread into the Pacific. Despite the look now, this significant cooling and +SOI spike is the leading edge of this MJO pulse which favors cooling and now we are seeing the SOI signal fall rapidly the other way as it moves away from Darwin and towards Tahiti. The models then shove it into the Pacific and you then are in the down-well phase of warmth and we may see it go the opposite way. This is if it propagates which with rising mountain torque it appears likely it will make it to the dateline.

[Ptarmigan]

3/1/0 would be almost impossible in this modern satellite era IMO. Even in the worst of years you have subtropical development that will keep the numbers higher.

Also, how did you determine that the active era ended in 2009? The multidecadel higher than normal SST's was still in place last year. That has not changed since 1995 and a very important indicator.

A warm Atlantic lasts about 40 years, while cool Atlantic lasts about 25 years. We are 19 years into the warm phase and have about 20 more years to go.

Even a cool Atlantic years, there are active seasons like 1979, 1980, 1985, 1988, 1989, and 1992.

[cycloneye]

Here is the Mid-January update of the plume of ENSO models that shows forecasts between Warm Neutral and Weak El Nino by the Summer. So far it looks like 2014 may be the 5th year in a row without having El Nino but is still early to have a definite proclamation.



http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... iri_update

[ninel conde]

SOI still high at +23.8

[blp]

Hard to tell right now how the ENSO will play out. Before the 2009 El Nino event we had -0.8 DJF , -0.7 JFM, -0.5 FMA, -0.2 MAM readings. I remember that year there was a lot of talk around this time of if the El Nino would appear. So we probably won't know for sure till May.

[stormkite]

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/i ... i&p=weekly

[Ntxw]

Hard to tell right now how the ENSO will play out. Before the 2009 El Nino event we had -0.8 DJF , -0.7 JFM, -0.5 FMA, -0.2 MAM readings. I remember that year there was a lot of talk around this time of if the El Nino would appear. So we probably won't know for sure till May.

Agreed, we have to get passed the transitional period of spring when SST's change and averages change. What's cool now may not be cool then vice versa.

[cycloneye]

Here is a very interesting articule that talks about Extreme El Nino's to double in the future. Let's see if these predictions come to fruictition or not.

For the study, the models simulated the climate for 200 years from 1890 to 2090. In the first half of the run, extreme El Niños occur about once every 20 years. From 1990 to 2090, the extreme events occur about every 10 years. The extreme El Niño that swamped California was 16 years ago.


"We are due for a big El Niño year," the study's lead author Wenju Cai, an atmospheric scientist at Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, told NBC News. "But nobody can predict when it is going to come."

During an extreme El Niño, Cai explained, a pool of warm water that normally resides in the western Pacific expands to the eastern equatorial Pacific, bringing with it increased atmospheric convection and rainfall.

On Feb. 8, 1983, a massive reddish-brown cloud advanced on the city of Melbourne, Australia. The dust storm was a consequence of devastating droughts induced by the extreme El Niño of 1982-83.

"When that occurs, it involves a massive reorganization of the atmospheric circulation. The western Pacific becomes dry; Australia has drought, heat waves and bushfires; and Indonesia has bushfires," he said. "But in Ecuador and northern Peru, the rainfall increases by 10 times and there are big, big problems."

Historically, the cold seas in the eastern equatorial Pacific served as a barrier to the expansion of the warm waters from the west. But as greenhouse gases have increased in the atmosphere, the eastern equatorial Pacific has warmed faster than surrounding regions, Cai explained. The warming, in turn, has weakened the barrier. "It is easier to have the maximum temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific," he said.

The faster warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific is shifting the background climate state, explained Kim Cobb, an atmospheric scientist at Georgia Tech who has struggled to find a connection between El Niño and climate change in her studies of paleoclimate records, such as coral reefs. She played no role in the new study but says it brings a new and welcome perspective to the problem.

Given the faster warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, "even fairly moderate El Niño events … are able to trigger these responses in the atmosphere which we currently associate with the most extreme El Niño events in the instrumental record," she said. "It doesn't take much to push you over the threshold."

http://www.nbcnews.com/science/be-prepa ... 2D11947406

[Ntxw]

Here is a very interesting articule that talks about Extreme El Nino's to double in the future. Let's see if these predictions come to fruictition or not.

It may be true in the future, but for now it sure is not. Since 2005 there have only been 2 El Nino's and 5 La Ninas, it's pretty clear the PDO dictates this.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Here is a very interesting articule that talks about Extreme El Nino's to double in the future. Let's see if these predictions come to fruictition or not.

It may be true in the future, but for now it sure is not. Since 2005 there have only been 2 El Nino's and 5 La Ninas, it's pretty clear the PDO dictates this.

Yep.

[cycloneye]

Nothing for El Nino huggers to cheer about but at least is something interesting this quick uptick of Nino 3.4 for the past two days. I would wait for the next 7 days to see if this turns out into a definite trend.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 1/21/14 update cools down to La Nina Threshold at -0.7C

Nino 3.4 continues to take a dip and now is fully at La Nina threshold. Let's see what happens in the next few updates to see if this trend stops or it mantains.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf