Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Big O]

12z European: Light snow beginning over west-central Texas at hour 60. Expanding eastward and in coverage at hour 66. At hour 72, light snow across much of west-central, central, southeast, and parts of south Texas. Some places northwest of the Coastal Bend (i.e., between CRP and San Antonio) have as much as an inch of snow. By hour 84, light snow has expanded to include all of Southeast Texas and parts of southwestern Louisiana. Keep in mind that the snow is very light, but the Euro has a tendency to underestimate QPF.

Something I just thought of, the Euro has "trended" wetter from its previous runs. Hopefully, this is the beginning of a trend and not just a blip.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow. More snow from the Euro then, would MUCH rather have it vs ice

[srainhoutx]

12Z Model Recap:

NAM = 'wetter' and slower with the precip ending. Upper air disturbance stronger and less strung out

GFS = precip for about 18 hours in Central TX/12-14 hours SE TX

Canadain = 'wetter' with a coastal low developing near Brownsville

UKMET = 'wetter' with a coastal trough

Euro = Colder and 'wetter' with a coastal trough

[ndale]

12z European: Light snow beginning over west-central Texas at hour 60. Expanding eastward and in coverage at hour 66. At hour 72, light snow across much of west-central, central, southeast, and parts of south Texas. Some places northwest of the Coastal Bend (i.e., between CRP and San Antonio) have as much as an inch of snow. By hour 84, light snow has expanded to include all of Southeast Texas and parts of southwestern Louisiana. Keep in mind that the snow is very light, but the Euro has a tendency to underestimate QPF.

Is it actually snow or a wintry mix?

[stormlover2013]

can u post graphics please!!!

[Big O]

can u post graphics please!!!

Can't do it; its from WxBell. Sorry.

[jerryh421]

What does it say for areas north of Houston (Conroe area)? Is the moisture going to end up staying more towards the south?

[Portastorm]

12z European: Light snow beginning over west-central Texas at hour 60. Expanding eastward and in coverage at hour 66. At hour 72, light snow across much of west-central, central, southeast, and parts of south Texas. Some places northwest of the Coastal Bend (i.e., between CRP and San Antonio) have as much as an inch of snow. By hour 84, light snow has expanded to include all of Southeast Texas and parts of southwestern Louisiana. Keep in mind that the snow is very light, but the Euro has a tendency to underestimate QPF.

Something I just thought of, the Euro has "trended" wetter from its previous runs. Hopefully, this is the beginning of a trend and not just a blip.

Does your access Big O enable you to look at qpf values? I'd be curious if this 12z Euro is indeed "wetter" or not. The low-rez version I just saw on the Penn State e-wall site didn't look all that much wetter but what it did do was keep the precip around longer in south/southeast Texas. However, did y'all notice that the 12z does develop a surface low off the lower Texas coast, just as the CMC does? That's quite interesting to me.

[Big O]

12z European: Light snow beginning over west-central Texas at hour 60. Expanding eastward and in coverage at hour 66. At hour 72, light snow across much of west-central, central, southeast, and parts of south Texas. Some places northwest of the Coastal Bend (i.e., between CRP and San Antonio) have as much as an inch of snow. By hour 84, light snow has expanded to include all of Southeast Texas and parts of southwestern Louisiana. Keep in mind that the snow is very light, but the Euro has a tendency to underestimate QPF.

Something I just thought of, the Euro has "trended" wetter from its previous runs. Hopefully, this is the beginning of a trend and not just a blip.

Does your access Big O enable you to look at qpf values? I'd be curious if this 12z Euro is indeed "wetter" or not. The low-rez version I just saw on the Penn State e-wall site didn't look all that much wetter but what it did do was keep the precip around longer in south/southeast Texas. However, did y'all notice that the 12z does develop a surface low off the lower Texas coast, just as the CMC does? That's quite interesting to me.

Efforting.....

0.1 to 0.3 for south and southeast Texas. With a 10:1 ratio (granted, I'm not sure that will be the actual ratio), it could translate to widespread area of 1" snow, with some isolated areas receiving as much as 3". THIS IS NOT A FORECAST. The assumptions are, first and foremost, that it is cold enough for snow throughout all layers, and second, that the moisture depicted actually verifies. Bottom line: there is much uncertainty, but moisture does not seem to be a significant issue for south and southeast Texas.

[Big O]

What does it say for areas north of Houston (Conroe area)? Is the moisture going to end up staying more towards the south?

Verbatim: Conroe gets very light snow.

[Portastorm]

Thanks Big O! The other thing we need to keep in mind is dry air at the lower levels of the atmosphere. That was the concern this morning. It could play a part in evaporating some of that moisture before it hits the ground.

My takeaway from the 12z model suite is that we still are far from certain about the outcome. Still think it'll come down to what happens with that 500mb system. Does it get tucked under the ridge and cut off out west or is it progressive enough and intact enough to roll eastbound and across the state. Also ... what happens off the Texas coast. Do we see any cyclogenesis? Two big questions.

[South Texas Storms]

Thanks Big O! The other thing we need to keep in mind is dry air at the lower levels of the atmosphere. That was the concern this morning. It could play a part in evaporating some of that moisture before it hits the ground.

My takeaway from the 12z model suite is that we still are far from certain about the outcome. Still think it'll come down to what happens with that 500mb system. Does it get tucked under the ridge and cut off out west or is it progressive enough and intact enough to roll eastbound and across the state. Also ... what happens off the Texas coast. Do we see any cyclogenesis? Two big questions.

I agree Porta and like others have said, I think we will have a much better idea of what's going to happen after the 12z model runs on Thursday.

[Stormcenter]

Anything before Thursday is like rolling dice.

Thanks Big O! The other thing we need to keep in mind is dry air at the lower levels of the atmosphere. That was the concern this morning. It could play a part in evaporating some of that moisture before it hits the ground.

My takeaway from the 12z model suite is that we still are far from certain about the outcome. Still think it'll come down to what happens with that 500mb system. Does it get tucked under the ridge and cut off out west or is it progressive enough and intact enough to roll eastbound and across the state. Also ... what happens off the Texas coast. Do we see any cyclogenesis? Two big questions.

I agree Porta and like others have said, I think we will have a much better idea of what's going to happen after the 12z model runs on Thursday.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am liking what I am seeing in the model trends, just need the surface low to move on up further north.

[TheProfessor]

What are the chances that the Nam is underestimating the short wave, and precip?

[TheProfessor]

[quote="Ralph's Weather"]I am liking what I am seeing in the model trends, just need the surface low to move on up further north.[/quote

Would that bring more precip to North Texas?

[stormlover2013]

This is not a forecast, but it looks like north texas could be out of the woods on this!!! I know it sucks but southeast texas deserves this shot lol!!!

[TheProfessor]

This is not a forecast, but it looks like north texas could be out of the woods on this!!! I know it sucks but southeast texas deserves this shot lol!!!

We all deserve it! I haven't had a good snow storm in 3 years.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am liking what I am seeing in the model trends, just need the surface low to move on up further north.[/quote

Would that bring more precip to North Texas?

I would think that the only way to get much in North Texas will be for the upper low to track further north. Coastal lows will typically pull moisture away from North Texas.

[Portastorm]

This is not a forecast, but it looks like north texas could be out of the woods on this!!! I know it sucks but southeast texas deserves this shot lol!!!

We all deserve it! I haven't had a good snow storm in 3 years.

As someone who has had numerous parades rained on, I hate to be the one to rain on yours. But with everything we have seen via the models, you'd honestly be much better off expecting nothing. It just doesn't look like it's going to happen for the Metroplex area. Sorry. If something surprising does happen, then you can go nuts. Otherwise you won't be disappointed as you'll be expecting nothing. Actually it's generally a good mindset to take in most of Texas when it comes to winter weather.

You'll have a chance or two up there before Easter. Don't worry.