Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

Hey Storm2K'ers,

First time poster, but long time lurker on the Texas Wx pages here. I just wanted to say I love "geeking out" on the models with y'all and gleaning valuable tidbits of meteorlogical knowledge. Too bad the World's Greatest Weatherman, Harold Taft, (who said "never predict snow until you see it fallin' ") isn't still around to contribute to the great discussions here.

Welcome to Storm2K! Great to see your post and I encourage you to join in whenever you wish. The more, the merrier!

Meanwhile ... in scenic southwest Travis County ... this is the scene at the Portastorm Weather Center:




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[dhweather]

I think wxman57 is on the road - I-10 east.

You can run from the cold, but you cannot hide.

[downsouthman1]

Hey Storm2K'ers,

First time poster, but long time lurker on the Texas Wx pages here. I just wanted to say I love "geeking out" on the models with y'all and gleaning valuable tidbits of meteorlogical knowledge. Too bad the World's Greatest Weatherman, Harold Taft, (who said "never predict snow until you see it fallin' ") isn't still around to contribute to the great discussions here.

Welcome to Storm2K! Great to see your post and I encourage you to join in whenever you wish. The more, the merrier!

Meanwhile ... in scenic southwest Travis County ... this is the scene at the Portastorm Weather Center:




Uploaded with ImageShack.us

OMG. All that for a couple millimeters or invisible snow.

[Rgv20]

Oh my I just look at the updated forecast for my area..

Thursday Night: A chance of rain before 3am, then a chance of rain, snow, and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Wind chill values as low as 23. Breezy, with a north wind 17 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday: A chance of rain and sleet. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 36. North wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[stormlover2013]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html


18z running for nam

[Tireman4]

Ok, silly question. I think I know, but to verify...when does the 12Z models Thursday? Yeah, I know..Thursday...but...I thought it was between 1 and 3 pm...but is that right?

[Portastorm]

Ok, silly question. I think I know, but to verify...when does the 12Z models Thursday? Yeah, I know..Thursday...but...I thought it was between 1 and 3 pm...but is that right?

When do they come out? The 12z NAM will be out around 9:30-10, the 12z GFS 10-10:30, the 12z CMC around 11:30 am and the 12z Euro around 12:30 p.m. All Central time.

[Tireman4]

Ok, silly question. I think I know, but to verify...when does the 12Z models Thursday? Yeah, I know..Thursday...but...I thought it was between 1 and 3 pm...but is that right?

When do they come out? The 12z NAM will be out around 9:30-10, the 12z GFS 10-10:30, the 12z CMC around 11:30 am and the 12z Euro around 12:30 p.m. All Central time.

Gotcha. Wxman 57 was waiting on those before he commits. Just curious. Thanks

[ndale]

18z NAM shows less precip than the 12z.

[srainhoutx]

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2014

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 23 2014 - 00Z Sat Jan 25 2014

...Frigid Arctic air mass to remain firmly in place across the central and
eastern U.S...

...Mix of wintry precipitation possible Thursday and Friday for portions
of Texas and Louisiana...

A large upper-level trough will remain in place across the eastern half of
the U.S. through the short range forecast period as Arctic air remains
firmly entrenched across these regions with temperatures well below
average. A fast-moving clipper-type system will bring snow to the Midwest
and Great Lakes tonight and into portions of the Appalachians and
Northeast on Thursday. An area of heavier/more widespread snow is possible
tonight over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan as upward atmospheric motion
is enhanced by an east-west oriented frontal zone over the Great Lakes.

This clipper system will usher yet another round of Arctic air into the
U.S., this one will spread farther south all the way into the southern
Plains on Thursday and to the Gulf Coast by Thursday night. As the
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico lifts across the Arctic front over Texas
and Louisiana Thursday into Thursday night, an area of generally light
precipitation will develop. As colder air infiltrates the region,
precipitation may fall as snow on the northern fringes of the
precipitation. Farther south, an area of sleet and freezing rain is
possible Thursday night into Friday morning across central and southern
Texas, extending all the way to the Texas Gulf Coast by early Friday
morning. Please refer to the QPFHSD product issued by the WPC Winter
Weather Desk for more specific details on the winter weather associated
with this system. By Friday morning, another clipper system will spread
scattered areas of snow across the Midwest.

Across the West, a weak upper-level disturbance will bring areas of snow
to parts of the Intermountain West and High Plains on Thursday. Along the
West Coast, generally dry conditions are expected to remain in place
through the short range period as an upper-level ridge of high pressure
over the Pacific will keep any significant storm systems from impacting
the western states.

Ryan

[Portastorm]

18z NAM shows less precip than the 12z.

It did that yesterday too IIRC. Meanwhile, the 15z SREF is rolling and looks even "wetter" than its previous runs for an area bounded by San Antonio to Waco to Abilene.

[ndale]

18z NAM shows less precip than the 12z.

It did that yesterday too IIRC. Meanwhile, the 15z SREF is rolling and looks even "wetter" than its previous runs for an area bounded by San Antonio to Waco to Abilene.

Don't you just love the agreement on the models, glad I don't work for the weather service right now.

[Portastorm]

Actually, I need to clarify that initial assesment of the 15z SREF. It actually has less precip in that area I mentioned in terms of QPF amounts ... slightly less. But the overall precip shield looks to have expanded over more of the state.

[srainhoutx]

HGX will issue a Winter Storm Watch shortly.

[dhweather]

18z NAM shows less precip than the 12z.

It did that yesterday too IIRC. Meanwhile, the 15z SREF is rolling and looks even "wetter" than its previous runs for an area bounded by San Antonio to Waco to Abilene.

Don't you just love the agreement on the models, glad I don't work for the weather service right now.

Man, I wouldn't want that job for winter precip. So many things have to come together just right for that to happen, which is why its so special for us.


Sadly, the GFS continues to be bone dry for 7-10 days in north Texas. We got .6 inches of rain early in the month, and that may end up being all we get for the month.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow:

Actually, I need to clarify that initial assesment of the 15z SREF. It actually has less precip in that area I mentioned in terms of QPF amounts ... slightly less. But the overall precip shield looks to have expanded over more of the state.

Yeah, the SREF has become more bullish with this system over the past 24 hours and whats puzzling is that the NWS regional offices seem to NORMALLY give more weight to this model within this time frame but don't appear to be jumping on board at this time. Very DIFFICULT forecast

[Ralph's Weather]

I am rooting for the SREF and its 30% probability of >1 in of snow here and over much of the state.

[somethingfunny]

Courtesy of Texas Storm Chasers

Everyone wants to know exactly how much snow or ice they will see. That is the million dollar question. The image above shows you four different models and how much snow it kicks out. NAM is the most aggressive with 2-4 from Austin, west into the Hill Country. GFS shows generally an inch or less in the gray area. While European and Canadian models show the snow farther east, closer to Houston. All that to say there is still a lot of uncertainty. There are small scale features in play that the models are not going to see. A burst of snow could happen giving one town several inches, leaving a dusting elsewhere.

The area with the highest odds of a multi inch snow will be San Angelo to Lampasas, south towards Llano and west of Austin. This where is will be coldest for a longer period of time.

As you go farther south to the San Antonio area and the I-10 corridor, freezing rain and sleet are more likely than snow. Remember, just a small amount of ice will create slick spots on bridges and overpasses.

In southeast Texas, Bryan and College Station could see a dusting of snow. For Houston, it will likely be more of a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Farther east towards Beaumont, you could see a wintry mix but no accumulation.

Out in west Texas and the Panhandle, snow flurries are possible early Thursday with no accumulation or travel concerns.

Areas between I-20 and the Red River won’t see much of anything, outside a snow flurry or two. This event will be confined to the southern half of the state.

Once precipitation develops on Thursday, we will get a better idea on which model is right and will get a better idea of how much snow and impacts. The National Weather Service offices should issue winter weather advisories today or early Thursday. Let me also say, this event will be no where near as bad as the December storm. Everything will melt by Saturday as temperatures climb above freezing.

[Tireman4]

HGX will issue a Winter Storm Watch shortly.

Yeah, I was wondering when they would. Tomorrow night into Friday "could" be a mess if this verifies...

[Portastorm]

This one's for my pal cctxhurricanewatcher. It is NWSFO Corpus Christi's afternoon "take" on things later this week:


THE BIG CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST THEN COMES AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD WITH PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. HAVE SPENT MUCH OF THE DAY MULLING
OVER THE POSSIBILITIES AND THINK THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE TO GET SOME
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET IN MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE CHANCE WORDING
FOR THIS GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 77 AND NORTH OF HWY 44. THE REST OF
THE AREA IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS AND WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE. A
BRIEF RUNDOWN OF WHAT SOUNDINGS LOOK LIKE...WILL BE MOIST (BUT NOT
SATURATED) ABOVE 10KFT (INCLUDING DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE.) COULD SEE
CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THAT REGION...BUT HAVE A PRETTY DEEP WARM LAYER
BETWEEN 3KFT AND 10KFT THAT WOULD LIKELY MELT ANY SNOW FLAKES (MAX
TEMP ABOVE 3C). PROFILE RETURNS TO SUB FREEZING SOMEWHERE AROUND 3
TO 4KFT. THE DEPTH OF THIS COLD LAYER WILL BE THE DIFFERENT BETWEEN
SLEET OR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. TOO CLOSE TO BE CONFIDENT IN ONE OVER
THE OTHER AT THIS POINT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
BORDERLINE AND LEAD TO FORECAST ISSUES BETWEEN RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN. STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS DUE TO THE EVENT BEING RIGHT ON THE
EDGE OF SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSSIBILITIES. THINK ANY ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE MINOR...AND MAINLY IMPACT BRIDGES/OVERPASSES...AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL VERY WARM (MID 50S). WILL STICK WITH SPS
PRODUCT FOR INFORMATION AT THIS POINT...BUT ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS MAY
BE NECESSARY WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

&&

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MESSY FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED. A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS WILL
HAVE OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL BEND...WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT
TRIGGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER A WIDE AREA. THERMAL PROFILES
HAVE TRENDED COLDER IN RECENT MODEL RUNS...WITH IP/ZR/ZL POTENTIALLY
ONGOING AT 12Z. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AT LEAST MARGINAL FOR MIXED
PRECIP UNTIL NOON OR JUST THEREAFTER OVER INLAND NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...SO HAVE EXTENDED MENTION IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE ALSO
BROUGHT MIXED PRECIP CLOSER TO THE COAST BASED ON 12Z MODEL OUTPUT.
ANY ICING THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES GIVEN WARM
SOIL TEMPERATURES. WINDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...WITH SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUING CAA WILL LEAD TO JUST A
LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON FRIDAY.