Texas Winter 2013-2014

[South Texas Storms]

The 21Z SREF ensemble mean continues to advertise a prolonged light freezing rain/sleet event that finally begins to wind down Friday night/early Saturday morning. The 00Z NAM suggests a tab bit more moisture that comes to an end in SE Texas Friday afternoon/evening. Both of these shorter range meso models are suggesting a Coastal trough/low near Brownsville/Corpus Christi. Also of note, CLL will do a special sounding (ballon launch) 00Z tomorrow and possibly one at 06Z to assist NWS Houston/Galveston.

Does the 0z NAM show CLL getting mostly sleet/snow? I don't think freezing rain will be too much of an issue up here compared to our neighbors further south.


How are you feeling about this event now Porta? Better than 24 hours ago?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Any idea on when the frozen precip will begin in Williamson county around round rock/hutto? I see different hour by hour forecasts predicting different times the sleet/snow is going to start.

It has the band at it's peak around between 18z and 21z so anytime between noon and 3pm tomorrow. It's highly dependent on banding features so it's not something we can say it will start at x time. Will have to follow radar trends.

If that's the case then I'm afraid much of that precip will be liquid and falling onto ground surfaces above freezing. Unless the models have the temps way off, the general AUS metro area won't cool to 32 or below until 5-6 p.m.

Sorry, I need to correct that I was looking at something else. The peak is around 3z which is a little after 6-9pm from the model. But the start of the precip shield is noon to 3.

[Rgv20]

Winter Storm Watch from the NWS in Corpus Christi

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
850 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014

...WINTER WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY
COOL TO OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF THIS OCCURS...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO FREEZE ON THE SURFACE WITH A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SLEET OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. LESSER AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
BEND. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF NUECES AND
KLEBERG COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL.
THIS WINTER WEATHER FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED WITH
CHANGES TO THE WATCH AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

TXZ232>234-246-247-231200-
/O.NEW.KCRP.WS.A.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/
BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEEVILLE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...
REFUGIO...WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
850 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND 1/8 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

* OTHER IMPACTS...ICY ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[orangeblood]

GFS ensemble mean is gradually shifting the cold anomalies further west over time, pattern looks prime for continued winter weather over the next two weeks.....

Ensemble mean temps Jan. 31-Feb. 1

[Ntxw]

GFS ensemble mean is gradually shifting the cold anomalies further west over time, pattern looks prime for continued winter weather over the next two weeks.....

Ensemble mean temps Jan. 31-Feb. 1

Source region is about to change as well. Flip from East-Central Canada to Siberia. The final big high will likely cross over from Siberia and be 1050-1060 in NW Canada.

[orangeblood]

GFS ensemble mean is gradually shifting the cold anomalies further west over time, pattern looks prime for continued winter weather over the next two weeks.....

Ensemble mean temps Jan. 31-Feb. 1

Source region is about to change as well. Flip from East-Central Canada to Siberia.

Is definitely from much higher latitudes, cold front early next week is a split of the Big Arctic High currently sitting in the Arctic Circle - sends a 1046 + HP into the US but is nothing compared to the other piece - 1065 + HP that ends up over Western Siberia . IMO, Probably still underestimating the HP's for next week

[TheProfessor]

GFS ensemble mean is gradually shifting the cold anomalies further west over time, pattern looks prime for continued winter weather over the next two weeks.....

Ensemble mean temps Jan. 31-Feb. 1

Source region is about to change as well. Flip from East-Central Canada to Siberia.

Is definitely from much higher latitudes, cold front early next week is a split of the Big Arctic High currently sitting in the Arctic Circle - sends a 1046 + HP into the US but is nothing compared to the other piece - 1065 + HP that ends up over Western Siberia . IMO, Probably still underestimating the HP's for next week

good only if it brings us precip. North Texas doesn't need anymore dry weather, are lake levels are low enough already!

Edit: if i had a choice between a week of cold with no guarantee of precipitation vs a week of 60+ degree weather with rain on at least 3 of the 7 days. I'd take the warmer weather hands down! This is how desperate i am for precipitation.

[Ntxw]

good only if it brings us precip. North Texas doesn't need anymore dry weather, are lake levels are low enough already!

Hope for an El Nino come summer, that's the only thing other than a stalling hurricane/ts to fixing the problem. We are 4 years removed from the last El Nino using ONI we have never gone longer than 4 so if we don't get one this year it will only keep it going and be uncharted territory. Long term drought began in 2007 with the -PDO which will be around for many more years, it's the norm now must get used to it.

[South Texas Storms]

good only if it brings us precip. North Texas doesn't need anymore dry weather, are lake levels are low enough already!

Hope for an El Nino come summer, that's the only thing other than a stalling hurricane/ts to fixing the problem. We are 4 years removed from the last El Nino using ONI we have never gone longer than 4 so if we don't get one this year it will only keep it going and be uncharted territory. Long term drought began in 2007 with the -PDO which will be around for many more years, it's the norm now must get used to it.

When do you think El Nino will return? You think there's at least a decent chance next winter will be an El Nino winter?

[Ntxw]

When do you think El Nino will return? You think there's at least a decent chance next winter will be an El Nino winter?

I think odds of El Nino are still below neutral. There's no stat that sticks out saying there will be an El Nino, but it's too early in the year to speculate. No La Nina though so we don't have to worry about exceptional drought. Admittedly I haven't dug into the ENSO data, usually I start posting in that thread and researching come late spring which is usually when the signals start showing up if one were to occur, I really hope it does.

Back to topic, 0z GFS hasn't really changed much from it's previous runs.

[cheezyWXguy]

What does this event look like for College Station? I haven't been able to follow the models very diligently lately and I'm curious as to what my odds of having classes friday might be.

[weatherdude1108]

When do the new models come out??

The 0z NAM is out and it has The Austin area receiving most of the snow/sleet, up to 2+ inches. Williamson county looks good with maybe a bit more of snow. SE Texas the 850 line lags the surface freeze line as precip moves out so probably up to an inch mixture of sleet and freezing rain.

I'm loving your statement Ntxw! We are overdue down here.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah it looks like the wetter trend from last night and this morning's model runs has stopped, at least temporarily. By tomorrow morning we will be able to look at the short-range models (RAP and HRRR) to identify any late model trends. Then tomorrow afternoon the radar watching will begin!

[South Texas Storms]

What does this event look like for College Station? I haven't been able to follow the models very diligently lately and I'm curious as to what my odds of having classes friday might be.

I think we have a decent chance of getting at least some snow/sleet from this event. My Forecasting class professor said he thinks there is a 50% chance of classes being cancelled on Friday and I agree.

[cheezyWXguy]

What does this event look like for College Station? I haven't been able to follow the models very diligently lately and I'm curious as to what my odds of having classes friday might be.

I think we have a decent chance of getting at least some snow/sleet from this event. My Forecasting class professor said he thinks there is a 50% chance of classes being cancelled on Friday and I agree.

ha, sweet. Any estimate of totals?

[ndale]

00z gfs looking kind of dry.

[stormlover2013]

Looks about the same to me

[Portastorm]

The 21Z SREF ensemble mean continues to advertise a prolonged light freezing rain/sleet event that finally begins to wind down Friday night/early Saturday morning. The 00Z NAM suggests a tab bit more moisture that comes to an end in SE Texas Friday afternoon/evening. Both of these shorter range meso models are suggesting a Coastal trough/low near Brownsville/Corpus Christi. Also of note, CLL will do a special sounding (ballon launch) 00Z tomorrow and possibly one at 06Z to assist NWS Houston/Galveston.

Does the 0z NAM show CLL getting mostly sleet/snow? I don't think freezing rain will be too much of an issue up here compared to our neighbors further south.


How are you feeling about this event now Porta? Better than 24 hours ago?

Actually, I'm probably a wee bit more optimistic about Austin's chances of experiencing an actual winter weather event. By that I mean an event where something more than a trace falls on the ground. This one could end up like the 2/4/11 event where we had about .75 of freezing drizzle/sleet/snow mix which shut down the town for a day, cancelling school and closing most businesses.

I'd feel better if the darn GFS would wetten up a bit. I just don't trust the NAM and its overdone QPF bias. If the 0z Euro and CMC hold court from the 12z runs then we can start to get excited, methinks.

[ndale]

Looks about the same to me

It is about the same as the 18z run but runs before that had more precip.

[Portastorm]

Just via a quick view, the 0z GFS looks similar to its last few runs. Light precip but slightly heavier as you get near the Coast.