Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ndale]

Just via a quick view, the 0z GFS looks similar to its last few runs. Light precip but slightly heavier as you get near the Coast.

I was going by what I saw on twisterdata snow cover, probably not the best perspective, just don't want to lose our moisture here at the last minute.

[Stormcenter]

Can someone please post the graphic for 0z GFS run? Thanks!

Just via a quick view, the 0z GFS looks similar to its last few runs. Light precip but slightly heavier as you get near the Coast.

[Ntxw]

Here you go^


After this storm, later this weekend we need to talk about next week. Cyclogenesis type system (strong hp to the north, good low to south and ribbon of vorticity) could be lurking.

[srainhoutx]

Deicing operations currently underway by TXDOT on Harris County Interstate road ways and State highways.

[Jagno]

I'm not quite understanding how SE Texas as well as Baton Rouge could be forecasted for wintry precip yet I'm here along the TX/LA border Lake Charles and our local NWS forecaster took all chances of precip out of the forecast and is calling for cold and cloudy only.

[BigB0882]

I assume that is up to each NWS forecaster? I would think Lake Charles certainly has more of a shot than Baton Rouge. Maybe the Baton Rouge NWS (out of New Orleans, right?) is just waiting for one more set of models before pulling the precip chances? Or maybe they figure they should just leave it at 20% so as not to bust if something surprising happens?

[orangeblood]

Maybe that Crazy Canadian Uncle of ours wasn't that out of touch with reality after all, GFS shows lots after energy moving through northwest flow next week....creates a coastal low along the Texas Coast with plenty of cold air around!!

[SeGaBob]

I'm not quite understanding how SE Texas as well as Baton Rouge could be forecasted for wintry precip yet I'm here along the TX/LA border Lake Charles and our local NWS forecaster took all chances of precip out of the forecast and is calling for cold and cloudy only.

I'm looking at Lake Charles and it shows a 50% of snow and sleet tomorrow night/Friday morning on the NWS page...

[Rgv20]

Maybe that Crazy Canadian Uncle of ours wasn't that out of touch with reality after all, GFS shows lots after energy moving through northwest flow next week....creates a coastal low along the Texas Coast with plenty of cold air around!!

I have been so focus with this short term storm that I just saw the 12zCMC....15+ inches of Snow for the Laredo/Eagle Pass area 5+ inches for my area!! lol

Edit: Just in 0zCMC has Snow Totals thru Wednesday Evening 6+ inches for my area and 12+ inches for Zapata County

[Stormnut]

What does cmc show for south louisiana with next storm?

[Jagno]

I'm not quite understanding how SE Texas as well as Baton Rouge could be forecasted for wintry precip yet I'm here along the TX/LA border Lake Charles and our local NWS forecaster took all chances of precip out of the forecast and is calling for cold and cloudy only.

I'm looking at Lake Charles and it shows a 50% of snow and sleet tomorrow night/Friday morning on the NWS page...

They just changed it, because it was there earlier and I checked it 3 times around 10pm to see if there were any changes and all precip had disappeared and it was calling for cloudy and cold only. I then went to the discussion and it was in fact calling for wintry precip but not on the graphics. Whew, I was wondering how I could be high and dry when everyone east and west of me were still forecasted for winter weather. Thanks!

[gpsnowman]

Next week is starting to look interesting.

[Jagno]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/426224906435452928/photo/1/large

Wowzers. Check this out. January 28th

Holy Moly! The last time it was down to 16º here was the day I got married in 1980. I hope this does not verify or we will be in a mess.

[HouTXmetro]

For next week what days are we looking at impact, how cold are we talking and is Frozen precipitation involved?

[BigB0882]

According to the GFS, it looks like a good shot on Friday 1/31 which is about 200 hours out. Not close range by any means but not quite Lala land. No doubt the models will take it away at some point, probably in the next run. The thing to watch for is if it keeps coming back or not as we get closer.

[HouTXmetro]

Thanks for answering... Yeah that is a long time from now. Wouldn't bank on it.

[BigB0882]

One interesting thing is the very cold air being predicted. That starts on Wed which is only 6 days out. Typically, when we get within 5 days the models have a pretty good handle on whether or not cold is coming. The details have to be ironed out but by this point the elements are usually in motion. For Baton Rouge the GFS is showing us being very near or below freezing for 48 hours. Friday we would get above freezing but then the snow hits, I am guessing at night when temps did below again. It is definitely the longest cold spell the GFS has forecast for us in a long long time. Will be very curious to see if it is right and if temps trend lower which seems to be the norm this season as we get closer to the events.

[TheProfessor]

What about for dfw?

[BigB0882]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDFW

I don't see any snow, maybe getting close at the very end there but that is well into fantasy land and the amount is very small in terms of QPF anyway. I notice the temps are cold for you guys as well for daytime highs but it seems you don't have quite the extremes as some to your south (SETX and southern LA). The cold air must be centered a little to your east, which tells me not to get too excited as small swings in where the cold goes could spell big forecast differences for those of us on the edge.

[ludosc]

According to the GFS, it looks like a good shot on Friday 1/31 which is about 200 hours out. Not close range by any means but not quite Lala land. No doubt the models will take it away at some point, probably in the next run. The thing to watch for is if it keeps coming back or not as we get closer.

If I could pick any day of this winter to have nice and warm weather, it'd be 1/31. I'm supposed to take my little sister to the US Women's soccer game against Canada in Frisco that night. I saw em play a couple of years ago out there and it was 34 degrees at kick with a 20 mph north wind...just miserable weather.