Texas Winter 2013-2014

[davidiowx]

Let's see what the 12z GFS has to say

[TheProfessor]

checked accuweather, weather bug, and local news stations on weather for next week, they're not mentioning any events, just the cold and they're being bullish on that.

Never trust accuweather or weather bug beyond 3 days. but I meant what ronyan pointed out.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Man i hope we get more sleet/snow than ice

[Ntxw]

Ntxw's point is that with a tanking -EPO forecast, it's inevitable that we will get more cold air dumps south out of Canada. Models will probably be playing catch up. The main limiting factor to how cold we get will be the source region temps. If NW Canada gets loaded with cold Siberian air then look out because it's coming.

Thanks, very good interpretation. Thus I remind you all the GFS and group just before the 15th torched the country for this time period. Thus I also remind everyone Western Canada is currently 20-40F above normal, reference to post I made yesterday. The EPO isn't forecasted to tank, it IS tanking and forecasted to go even lower. It is the cold loading index and this current cold snap is all a part of it and so is the next early week. Models had NO anomalous highs a week ago and we have seen 1048s and 1050s pop up galore including the current one.

[stormlover2013]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

GFS 12 run is rolling

[TheProfessor]

Man i hope we get more sleet/snow than ice

Why? I can tell you from experience that ice storms aren't very fun.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Next week is starting to look interesting.

For us in North Texas or only south of us again?

[gboudx]

Man i hope we get more sleet/snow than ice

Why? I can tell you from experience that ice storms aren't very fun.

Read that again. TeamPlayersBlue doesn't want an ice storm either.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Man i hope we get more sleet/snow than ice

Why? I can tell you from experience that ice storms aren't very fun.

Not sure if you read it correctly I did edit it quickly though. Snow sleet will be much better

[Tireman4]

Man i hope we get more sleet/snow than ice

Why? I can tell you from experience that ice storms aren't very fun.

Snow is easier ( most of the time) to drive in than sleet. Sleet can be a pain but it is WAY easier than Freezing Rain. Freezing Rain, forget about it. No way....That has been my experience. So, no I do not want an ice storm. I would much rather have snow.

[TheProfessor]

Man i hope we get more sleet/snow than ice

Why? I can tell you from experience that ice storms aren't very fun.

Read that again. TeamPlayersBlue doesn't want an ice storm either.

I think he edited it. I'm almost sure he said "I hope we get more sleet than snow" but my eyes could be playing trick on me.

[Portastorm]

After watching the hour by hour forecasts on some austin news stations this morning, it looks like the precip won't be widespread and a lot of areas will miss out on any precip all together. Are these hour by hour forecasts pretty accurate?

Those forecasts are garbage and people shouldn't be fooled by them. Isentropic lift has already started in earnest here in Austin and that is ahead of schedule of almost ALL of the models.

[Snowman67]

I'm flying back from Chicago to Houston (IAH) this evening. My flight is supposed to land around 9:45pm. Can anyone tell me what the temps are forecasted to be at that time at IAH? Hoping that there are no delays/cancellations due to icing that early in Houston (I really want to get back for any winter weather fun). If temps are scheduled to be below freezing by then, I might consider getting on an earlier flight if possible. Thanks for any input.

[TheProfessor]

Man i hope we get more sleet/snow than ice

Why? I can tell you from experience that ice storms aren't very fun.

Not sure if you read it correctly I did edit it quickly though. Snow sleet will be much better

Yeah I saw the pre edit.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm flying back from Chicago to Houston (IAH) this evening. My flight is supposed to land around 9:45pm. Can anyone tell me what the temps are forecasted to be at that time at IAH? Hoping that there are no delays/cancellations due to icing that early in Houston (I really want to get back for any winter weather fun). If temps are scheduled to be below freezing by then, I might consider getting on an earlier flight if possible. Thanks for any input.

Dont be late.

[Tireman4]

I'm flying back from Chicago to Houston (IAH) this evening. My flight is supposed to land around 9:45pm. Can anyone tell me what the temps are forecasted to be at that time at IAH? Hoping that there are no delays/cancellations due to icing that early in Houston (I really want to get back for any winter weather fun). If temps are scheduled to be below freezing by then, I might consider getting on an earlier flight if possible. Thanks for any input.

Jeff stated 3 am for the fun to start. He stated that on the KHOU Weatherboards. Now, maybe his thinking has changed, but that was as of now. Just keep tuned.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Check met, GFS looks wetter. Precip still falling at 3pm for SE TX, Houston metro freezing just after midnight. 850 looks a wee bit closer to the coast, not enough for forecast change i think though.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS continues to show .25 to .50 inches of precip for Austin area ... this is much higher than what it showed yesterday and about the same as what the 6z run showed. I was worried about this ... I've heard some chatter here in town like "oh, the TV weatherman says it's going to miss us."

The hell it is. This situation appears to be growing more serious, especially if the P-type ends up being primarily freezing rain/sleet.

[Tireman4]

After watching the hour by hour forecasts on some austin news stations this morning, it looks like the precip won't be widespread and a lot of areas will miss out on any precip all together. Are these hour by hour forecasts pretty accurate?

Those forecasts are garbage and people shouldn't be fooled by them. Isentropic lift has already started in earnest here in Austin and that is ahead of schedule of almost ALL of the models.

Porta,

Where is the front?

[davidiowx]

12z GFS continues to show .25 to .50 inches of precip for Austin area ... this is much higher than what it showed yesterday and about the same as what the 6z run showed. I was worried about this ... I've heard some chatter here in town like "oh, the TV weatherman says it's going to miss us."

The hell it is. This situation appears to be growing more serious, especially if the P-type ends up being primarily freezing rain/sleet.

It looks like it is getting worse and worse for the Houston area every model run as well. It will definitely be an interesting night!