Texas Winter 2013-2014

[gpsnowman]

I am such a fool for snow. Sometimes when I am smoking outside on a cold and windy day, I mistake ashes swirling in the wind for snowflakes.

[BigB0882]

The NAM showing .1 all the way well into SELA is very interesting. I don't think any previous runs had precip into LA. Right? That's an interesting change. Curious to see how this plays out locally. My end goal is school cancellation. Haha

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Oh I'm sure they will close schools down bigb. Seems nowadays they shut them down if there's a t-storm, cold, or heat. Let a few flakes start falling and baton rouge will be in complete chaos

Anyway can anybody give links or post when the more localized 3 hour models run?

[Red Raider fan]

So am i gpsnowman, so am i. sometimes when its drizzeling here and its cold out, mind you sometimes not freezing cold and i see the water dropplets floating around i think its snow lol.

[Ntxw]

Lots of posts here and lots of activity, an atmosphere wxman57 does not like seeing in this thread. Definitely --WSI tank.

[Stormnut]

Can someone post that cool map to see where front is. I can't remember where it's located

[Portastorm]

A quick peek at several mesonets in North Texas show the "colder" air now entering the northern part of the Metroplex. Looks like a 6-8 degree spread from north to south.

[orangeblood]

Oh I'm sure they will close schools down bigb. Seems nowadays they shut them down if there's a t-storm, cold, or heat. Let a few flakes start falling and baton rouge will be in complete chaos

Anyway can anybody give links or post when the more localized 3 hour models run?

According to short range models, Southeast Texas is ground zero for this event......from Houston to Huntsville and even over into Alexandria, LA.....wouldn't be surprised to see 2-4 inches of snow in some spots

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1007 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014

.UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
CHANGES TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS. SPOTTY RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND TO MAKE THINGS
MORE SIMPLE...WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
THE SOUTHERN AREAS UNTIL 3 PM. BY 3 PM...THE COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THIS REGION...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT SLEET PELLETS TO BEGIN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. AFTER
00Z...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS LIKELY. THIS IS WHEN THE
IMPACTS SHOULD DEFINITELY BEGIN FOR AREAS THAT ARE RECEIVING MORE
THAN VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DIFFERING SLIGHTLY ON WHERE THE
NORTHERN CUT OFF OF THE PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF I-20 BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS. WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 20S...THE HIGHEST
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES BECAUSE OF
LESS SUBLIMATION IN THE DRY AIR. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
THIS MORNING BRINGS THE SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE ADVISORY AND MAY HAVE TO TRIM THE ADVISORY A BIT. WE
MAY ALSO HAVE TO EXPAND IT FURTHER EAST INTO LEON AND PERHAPS
ANDERSON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAMPSHIRE

[Ellsey]

A quick peek at several mesonets in North Texas show the "colder" air now entering the northern part of the Metroplex. Looks like a 6-8 degree spread from north to south.

Our temp has dropped since 10 am, so I'm guessing we've gotten the cold. Sitting at 30 right now.

[gpsnowman]

Ok. Question. After looking at WFAA radar it is showing snow for parts of Arkansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and the Texas panhandle. Shouldn't the air in these parts be just as dry if not drier than DFW? The radar could be depicting virga snow I'm thinking.

[gboudx]

Yep, virga. It's just too dry here. We'll have to live vicariously through our friends further south.

[davidiowx]

From HGX a few minutes ago:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1110 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COUPLE OF ISSUES WITH THREAT FOR WINTER WEATHER OVER THE AREA.
FIRST WE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO 18Z FRI OR NOON.
MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY STILL BE
FROZEN PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
WARM MUCH WITH PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. PLUS COLD ADVECTION LOOKS
TO BE SLOWING DOWN BUT STILL ON GOING. GFS MAY BE DRYING OUT
PRECIP TOO QUICKLY BUT THINK NAM MAY BE HOLDING ONTO PRECIP TOO
LONG. THIS SPLITS THAT DIFFERENCE.

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT AND SLOW TIMING OF
WHEN TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING EARLY TONIGHT. WARMED TEMPS SOME
WITH PRECIP OCCURRING BUT REALLY NEED TO WATCH TRENDS IN DEWPOINTS
AS DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS ARE NOT FAR AWAY FROM COLLEGE STATION TO
CROCKETT. THIS DRIER AIR WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COULD IMPACT
PRECIP AND TEMPERATURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS BUT POSSIBLE THAT WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE
DELAYED A FEW HOURS DEPENDING ON TEMPS AND WHEN ICE ACCUMULATIONS
BEGIN TO OCCUR.

FINALLY WE ADDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST TIER OF COUNTIES.
MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WINDY FOR WHARTON/FORT BEND/HARRIS COUNTIES
BUT ENOUGH TO ADD THEM TO THE ADVISORY. AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THOSE COUNTIES COULD EXPERIENCE 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: Arctic attack next week may send freezing temps into Texas/Fla Citrus groves

m.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

[stormlover2013]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

going to be fun!!!

[TexasStorm]

Looking at my friends weather station in Frisco it appears the really cold air is about 7 hours behind the initial front.

[dhweather]

It was 40 at 6 this morning in Heath. It's 33 now.

[Red Raider fan]

Was 52 earlier temp has dropped to 44 now, i dont know what time it was when the temp started dropping. just that i know it was 47 at 11:20 and now 10 minutes later dropped to 44.

[ndale]

After holding steady at 45 most of the morning my temp here is dropping, now at 41. The dewpoint is staying steady at around 27 or 28 so humidity is rising.

[HouTXmetro]

It's a toasty 58 in the Big Humble/Atascocita/Kingwood Metroplex 11:43 AM central