Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[northjaxpro]

I agree with you Mississippiwx.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS. I will post some graphics of the run in this post to not make new posts of different hours.

63 hours.



75 hours.



84 hours.



90 hours.

[Ntxw]

GFS has a good 1-3 for I-10 corridor in Louisiana, historic 3-6" for the MS/AL/extreme western FL panhandle coasts.

[BigB0882]

Wow this is looking good. I hope nothing changes tonight. We are getting so close to locking this in!

[Ntxw]

Wow this is looking good. I hope nothing changes tonight. We are getting so close to locking this in!

You see these things in fantasy land but it's amazing to see it within just a few days. This is the type of stuff you talking about years down the road like 1976-1977, "that year in 2013-2014 it snowed all the way down to the beaches, New Orleans had several inches and there was ice in the MS!"

[CYCLONE MIKE]

GFS has a good 1-3 for I-10 corridor in Louisiana, historic 3-6" for the MS/AL/extreme western FL panhandle coasts.

Ntxw,

Not that I'm being greedy or anything but why do areas just a little further east of us get twice as much? Is ours more ice, not as heavy, or shorter duration, or all the above?

[Ntxw]

GFS has a good 1-3 for I-10 corridor in Louisiana, historic 3-6" for the MS/AL/extreme western FL panhandle coasts.

Ntxw,

Not that I'm being greedy or anything but why do areas just a little further east of us get twice as much? Is ours more ice, not as heavy, or shorter duration, or all the above?

Not as heavy precip, it's not guaranteed but you never know

[Sean in New Orleans]

Looking like we're going to get some decent snow in New Orleans...been a long time. If the weather gods align correctly, we could have all time snow records broken in New Orleans...we'll see. That would be tricky.

[Ntxw]

Looking like we're going to get some decent snow in New Orleans...been a long time. If the weather gods align correctly, we could have all time snow records broken in New Orleans...we'll see. That would be tricky.

The magic number for New Orleans is 8.2 inches set in 1895, in the modern era it's 4.5 inches in 1963. Anything above an official inch would be a top 5 (excluding pre-1900)

[BigB0882]

Cyclone, I am hoping this ends up starting a little more west than the models currently see. Could be the difference between 1 inch or 4 inches for us. Maybe the models will trend a little more north and or west. Not that you will see me complain about 1 inch of snow. I just worry that if our QPF is minimal that the majority will be freezing rain or sleet and hardly any snow. This last event I only saw a few flakes so some good measurable snow would be nice.

[bella_may]

This Gfs seems a hair north. Or am I wrong?

[Janie2006]

Yeah, Ntxw, can't you give us just a little more, sir?

[mcheer23]

If I were to snow chase....Would it be better to stay in Houston, TX or go to Mobile, AL

[PTPatrick]

1963 only gave 4 to New Orleans a couple to Mobile but it dropped nearly a foot from Bay ST. Louis into Stone county(actually up to Huntsville) . Snow is all all about winners and losers...location location location. There still seems to be a window of opportunity for more ice and sleet than snow, but those details are honestly hard to flesh out anywhere, let alone the gulf coast...i think it's really going to be a now cast for New Orleans to Pensacola, just like last week only heavier impact. But Friday my mom came home to iced up steps on their raised home on the water in Pascagoula anything can happen.

[Countrygirl911]

What can sw mississippi see from this yesterday it had us with several inches of snow and now it shows us with hardly any

[BigB0882]

Here is the GFS output for your area. Look like .18 QPF while temps below freezing.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KHEZ

Go back a page or so or look in the other threads, someone posted close up maps of the NAM.

[timmeister]

From the NWS in New Orleans

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF Ensembles Probability Percentage Accumulated Snowfall greater than 1'' thru Wednesday Evening is at 40-50% for Southern LA to the Panhandle of Florida

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Cyclone, I am hoping this ends up starting a little more west than the models currently see. Could be the difference between 1 inch or 4 inches for us. Maybe the models will trend a little more north and or west. Not that you will see me complain about 1 inch of snow. I just worry that if our QPF is minimal that the majority will be freezing rain or sleet and hardly any snow. This last event I only saw a few flakes so some good measurable snow would be nice.

I hear you B. I know it is different circumstances but I just keep thinking back to the last storm and how models had most of LA dry with only light precip. But then the day of before our eyes snow exploded in central LA that wasn't even forecast, time or amount, and the rest as you know was history. Just makes me think the same could just as easily happen with this one as well.

[BigB0882]

I think the NWS is being conservative. Not that I blame them but if you go and ready their forecasts they don't put in any accumulations yet. I think they are hedging their bets and will up those percentages and accumulations tomorrow if the models don't change.