ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[WeatherEmperor]

Actually, a decrease was predicted - probably reaching -0.5+ sometime in February and peaking its lowest around March then increase rapidly on May.

As what wxman57 has posted, the January forecast indicates continued cooling through mid February then a steady rise to +0.5C by May and +0.7C by July.

No way are we going to La Niña. This event is normal every first few months of the year.

I think it is worth quoting this post because this cooling we are seeing may have been expected all along possibly continuing into early February before rapid warming takes over. We need to continue to watch this over the next few weeks to see if that will be the case.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[hurricanes1234]

That's funny. La Niña threshold now. Wouldn't be surprised to see -1.0°C soon.

The above statement was not professional advice, just an uneducated guess.

[Ntxw]

Actually the daily anomalies have done a complete 180, we won't get to -1C. In fact nearly all of the cold anomalies suddenly have vanished in the span of days and we are now at 0c. Will be interesting come Monday's update.

It literally went poof

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .week.html



MJO/Kelvin waves...gotta love em and their extremes.

[cycloneye]

Is a strong MJO/KW that is ramping up all ENSO areas.

Nino 1+2



Nino 3



Nino 3.4



Nino 4

[Kingarabian]

Wow. That's astonishing. What a churn in events.

[euro6208]

Strong MJO signal over the Maritime Continent and West Pacific bringing increased clouds and showers and forecast has a very slow but strengthening eastward propagation to the east.

Something to watch over the next few days.

[cycloneye]

Here is an articule about some missing data because of bouys not working due to vandalism.



Floating sensors that have predicted extreme weather events for decades and saved lives in the process have been left to "collapse" amid vandalism and US budget cuts.

The United States and Japan set up the Tropical Pacific Observing System - made up of about 70 buoys - after a large El Nino event in 1982-83 caught forecasters unaware. Fourteen years later, the moored devices helped provide warnings of the “super” 1997-98 El Nino almost a year before it hit, probably saving lives and preventing billions of dollars in damage.

But the performance of the moored devices, which take atmospheric readings and monitor conditions down to 500 metres below the sea's surface, has fallen to about 40 per cent since 2012, according to the the climate observation director of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, David Legler.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/clima ... z2rEt8RR4x

[Ntxw]

Big fight going on in the Pacific. Warm anomalies near the Baja of Mexico and cool western Pacific along the Oriental coasts, and of course the +PDO warm pool in west of NA. That's borderline +PDO but the South Pacific says not yet, at least until SA emerges better with warm waters.

[Kingarabian]

Big fight going on in the Pacific. Warm anomalies near the Baja of Mexico and cool western Pacific along the Oriental coasts, and of course the +PDO warm pool in west of NA. That's borderline +PDO but the South Pacific says not yet, at least until SA emerges better with warm waters.

Ntxw, in El-Nino events, are WPAC waters cooler or warmer like its Central and Eastern counterparts?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, in El-Nino events, are WPAC waters cooler or warmer like its Central and Eastern counterparts?

El Nino's typically associate with +PDO, thus the WPAC waters are cooler due to constant turning from convection. Pressures over the WPAC, which enhances tropical cyclone formation, tend to be lower with the cool waters compared to the -PDO La Nina where pressures are higher.

[cycloneye]

The zig-zag continues for Nino 3.4 as last week it was at -0.7C and this week is at -0.4C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Here is the Aussies update:

ENSO-neutral conditions to continue into autumn
Issued on Tuesday 28 January 2014 | Product Code

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state (neither El Nino nor La Nina). Climate models suggest an ENSO-neutral state to persist until at least the end of the austral autumn, with some warming of the tropical Pacific likely.

While most ENSO indicators are neutral, strong westerly winds currently over the far western tropical Pacific may lead to some warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks. Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm through the southern autumn and winter. Some, but not all, models predict this warming may approach El Nino thresholds by early winter. Model
outlooks that span autumn have lower skill than forecasts made at other times of the year, hence long-range model outlooks should be used cautiously at this time.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Ntxw]

Thank you for the updates! It's quite helpful keeping tabs on ENSO.

Of late there is movement underneath the surface with the WPAC warm pool underneath expanding in size and depth. This likely is associated with the current MJO. As this water begins to move east and up through the thermocline it will allow us to have insight on what may occur down the road. First to note is does it warm as it moves up the thermocline (3, even 4c)? True El Nino's heat up during this migration.

[cycloneye]

Saved loop of equatorial subsurface shows that big warm pool in Western Pacific. Let's see how it behaves in the next few weeks.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Strong MJO coming to the West Pacific, bringing a number of disturbances.

[ninel conde]

SOI +16.2

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Our best chance at an El Nino so far in the past two years? Check out that insane westerly wind burst in the WPAC:

[cycloneye]

That is a strong pulse Tx13.

It will be very interesting to see which dominates the battle between the warm pool and cold pool.

[Ntxw]

Will we see 4c and 5c+ pop up on it's way east? Fascinating to see!

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 25m

There is no sign of westerly burst in SOI. ramping up yet again. Models insist on enso 3.4 warming, Atmosphere not co-operating

SOI +21 today. if anything, i agree with JB. some cooling seems more likely if the SOI remains positive. jan is likely to end up +12 SOI.