Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Rgv20]

Well this certainly looks interesting!

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif

If it only it would verify. It has some action for me and RGV20, as well.

That looks really good for us! My gut feeling is that we could see some wintery weather from 3AM to 9AM Wednesday. Its crazy how the 500mb low is giving the models fits, I'm guessing the models are having such a hard time because of the lack of data out there in the Pacific.

EDIT: Took a quick look at the 12zUKMET and it too is wet for Deep South Texas but it looks like most of the precip is after 6am Wednesday. 12zCMC shows a mix bag from Midnight to 6AM Wednesday.

[davidiowx]

What is is showing for SE Texas area?

[Red Raider fan]

Well i would like to see some snow around here, looks like L.A. will get it this time around hope they enjoy it.

[Big O]

Well this certainly looks interesting!

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif

If it only it would verify. It has some action for me and RGV20, as well.

That looks really good for us! My gut feeling is that we could see some wintery weather from 3AM to 9AM Wednesday. Its crazy how the 500mb low is giving the models fits, I'm guessing the models are having such a hard time because of the lack of data out there in the Pacific.

EDIT: Took a quick look at the 12zUKMET and it too is wet for Deep South Texas but it looks like most of the precip is after 6am Wednesday. 12zCMC shows a mix bag from Midnight to 6AM Wednesday.

I'm crossing my fingers, but steeling myself for the worse (i.e., no wintry precip).

[HouTXmetro]

Me after viewing all the various discussions on this board and concessions about our Winter Weather. It's one thing to hope the models are wrong on precip amounts because that bust all the time, but another when it comes to the temps being foretasted to be at/above freezing according to the latest model runs. I'm not sure how I can argue with that. #IHATELUCY

[TheProfessor]

Could someone tell the time (in central time) the 18gfs runs?

[ROCK]

:( Me after viewing all the various discussions on this board and concessions about our Winter Weather. It's one thing to hope the models are wrong on precip amounts because that bust all the time, but another when it comes to the temps being foretasted to be at/above freezing according to the latest model runs. I'm not sure how I can argue with that. #IHATELUCY

18Z NAM if we are all model watching still.... .

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... roup=Model Guidance&model=nam&area=namer&cycle=20140127%2018%20UTC&param=850vor_500ht_200wd&fourpan=no&imageSize=M

[Tireman4]

:( Me after viewing all the various discussions on this board and concessions about our Winter Weather. It's one thing to hope the models are wrong on precip amounts because that bust all the time, but another when it comes to the temps being foretasted to be at/above freezing according to the latest model runs. I'm not sure how I can argue with that. #IHATELUCY

18Z NAM if we are all model watching still.... .

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... roup=Model Guidance&model=nam&area=namer&cycle=20140127%2018%20UTC&param=850vor_500ht_200wd&fourpan=no&imageSize=M

But I thought we were done model watching. Folks are telling me, "Go outside boy. If ya see snow, then ya getting snow".

[Tireman4]

From Steve McCauley...Facebook...


It's nice to see the winds coming down this afternoon, but there is still a bit of a bite to the air. Peak winds were at 53 mph during the predawn hours as the arctic front blasted through, but now down to 33 mph. The dewpoint has plummeted to ZERO and below across much of north Texas, so bone-dry air is now firmly in place. Watch out for the extra potent static electricity discharges today and tomorrow!

We remain precipitation-free this week, but I am pleased to say that our Bering Sea disturbance (see last night's post) is still very much alive and is still on schedule to arrive next week on the 3rd and 4th. And there is still decent evidence that it comes in negative tilt.

Why is the tilt important? Two reasons: 1) A Negative Tilt Disturbance is the strongest orientation a disturbance can have, and 2) A Negative Tilt tends to make air pressure at the Earth's surface fall very fast, and that acts like a magnet to draw Gulf Moisture back into Texas.

We must must must get that Gulf Moisture back and replace these below zero dewpoints with 50s and 60s again! If we don't have the gas to put in this strong engine that's coming next week, all we'll get is wind (and fire).

So keep your fingers crossed for the negative tilt (or at least a zero-tilt), and we may just be able to break out the widespread rain again. But it is still more than a week away, so NOTHING is set in stone, but the stat method has it up to 60% probability.

[Cuda17]

:( Me after viewing all the various discussions on this board and concessions about our Winter Weather. It's one thing to hope the models are wrong on precip amounts because that bust all the time, but another when it comes to the temps being foretasted to be at/above freezing according to the latest model runs. I'm not sure how I can argue with that. #IHATELUCY

Yeah... forecast high here was 46 and falling. I'm sitting at 55 with the sun shining brightly.

[davidiowx]

Why is it when I type my zip code into the box on the NWS website, it brings up 70% wintry mix Tuesday and Tuesday night, then I click refresh, it says 70% Tuesday and 20% Tuesday night. I find that odd..

It has been doing that all morning.

[downsouthman1]

Could someone tell the time (in central time) the 18gfs runs?

Maybe another 1-1.5 hours from now.

davidiowx, point forecasts always wobble like that when the new forecast packages are integrated, which generally occurs twice per day & right now would be one of those times.

[HouTXmetro]

:( Me after viewing all the various discussions on this board and concessions about our Winter Weather. It's one thing to hope the models are wrong on precip amounts because that bust all the time, but another when it comes to the temps being foretasted to be at/above freezing according to the latest model runs. I'm not sure how I can argue with that. #IHATELUCY

18Z NAM if we are all model watching still.... .

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... roup=Model Guidance&model=nam&area=namer&cycle=20140127%2018%20UTC&param=850vor_500ht_200wd&fourpan=no&imageSize=M

link is broken, can you just post the graphic please are summarize it for us?

[Tireman4]

Remember, they will send up sounding balloons at UH between 12 noon and 1 pm Tuesday. That will help pinpoint what is going on. Stay tuned for that.

[Rgv20]

NWS out of Brownsville just updated my forecast..

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain before 9pm, then periods of sleet, possibly mixed with rain. Low around 36. Wind chill values as low as 27. North wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday: Periods of sleet, possibly mixed with rain before 9am, then a chance of rain. High near 51. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[Lagreeneyes03]

The extended 12Z GFS has lost the winter love for the DFW metroplex.

http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/5949/32n7.png

Remember we are still over a week out from this potential event. Anything could happen. So don't lose hope.

If I'm not mistaken, the Icemageddon event did this as well.

[mcheer23]

Winter Storm Warning for HGX

[ROCK]

Winter Storm Warning for HGX

about time.. ...I guess some folks on here who said this wouldnt make storm warning were grossly incorrect....

had to get that rub in....

[mcheer23]

Winter Storm Warning for HGX

about time.. ...I guess some folks on here who said this wouldnt make storm warning were grossly incorrect....

had to get that rub in....

Don't blame you.

[TheProfessor]

The extended 12Z GFS has lost the winter love for the DFW metroplex.

http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/5949/32n7.png

Remember we are still over a week out from this potential event. Anything could happen. So don't lose hope.

If I'm not mistaken, the Icemageddon event did this as well.

Yes it did, it did it until about 5 days out. I didn't no if it would be a bust or not!