Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tireman4]

Winter Storm Warning for HGX

about time.. ...I guess some folks on here who said this wouldnt make storm warning were grossly incorrect....

had to get that rub in....

Oh my

[BigB0882]

I think Rock's wording could have been a bit better.

[Cuda17]

Winter Storm Warning for HGX

about time.. ...I guess some folks on here who said this wouldnt make storm warning were grossly incorrect....

had to get that rub in....

I guess Austin County is the outlier here... Washington to the North and Waller to the East are both in the warning area... just an advisory for us.

[HouTXmetro]

Winter Storm Warning for HGX

about time.. ...I guess some folks on here who said this wouldnt make storm warning were grossly incorrect....

had to get that rub in....

Oh great, Pyrrhic victories..yeah!!!!

[veedub63]

I guess Austin County is the outlier here... Washington to the North and Waller to the East are both in the warning area... just an advisory for us.

Don't sweat it....I recently moved from Bellville, I'm sure the little Brahmas will get the epic blizzard I longed for...Just my luck.

[JDawg512]

Has anybody taken a look at the radar recently. I have 3 different radar apps on my phone. 2 are showing a good amount of returns from Southwest of Austin to west of San Antonio it's been moving in from Mexico and it looks like more is on the way. Not sure if it's Virgo or if there is precipitation falling to the ground.

[JenBayles]

Front went through west Houston mid-morning. Got a little wind and temps steadily RISING. Just hit 60 under partly cloudy skies. What gives?!

[downsouthman1]

EWX just posted Winter Weather Advisory for what appears to be almost entire forecast area.

[downsouthman1]

Has anybody taken a look at the radar recently. I have 3 different radar apps on my phone. 2 are showing a good amount of returns from Southwest of Austin to west of San Antonio it's been moving in from Mexico and it looks like more is on the way. Not sure if it's Virgo or if there is precipitation falling to the ground.

I don't see that at all. There are some baby returns in Mexico but that's all I see.

Edit: & west of Fort Stockton.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ok, my radio silence is done. Light echo returns west of San Antonio. Time to break out the HRRR, and see how this plays out. Everybody be careful out there please. While we love snow/ice events we must remember this. Godspeed to everyone!

My personal prediction, i think the precip begins earlier than expected, (3hours), wetter than expected for sure and more widespread across texas than expected. This is an amateurish/bullish prediction but seeing these returns come up a bit already, my confidence is growing.

For me in Sugar Land, 75% of the precip will be sleet i believe, other 25% snow.

This is by no means a forecast, just my wishful thinking/guesss. Godspeed everyone!

[aggiecutter]

Front went through west Houston mid-morning. Got a little wind and temps steadily RISING. Just hit 60 under partly cloudy skies. What gives?!

So far, this front is under-performing. The high in Texarkana today was forecast to be 38. It is currently 46 outside. Checking the latest METARS, the cold air is still up in Central Oklahoma.

[Tireman4]

Front went through west Houston mid-morning. Got a little wind and temps steadily RISING. Just hit 60 under partly cloudy skies. What gives?!

So far, this front is under-performing. The high in Texarkana today was forecast to be 38. It is currently 46 outside. Checking the latest METARS, the cold air is still up in Central Oklahoma.

It is coming. Be patient young grasshoppers.....

[Portastorm]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
253 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
NOON TUESDAY...

.VERY COLD AIR CONTINUED TO BLAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO FREEZING IN THE HILL COUNTRY
THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...A FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BRING LOW CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. LIGHT RAIN
AND SLEET WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON ELEVATED
OBJECTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TRACE...WITH SPOTTY AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF LULING TO
AUSTIN AND JARRELL LINE. THE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY MORNING...AND END ALL AREAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

TXZ171>173-184>194-203>209-219>225-280400-
/O.CON.KEWX.WW.Y.0002.140128T0600Z-140128T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-
KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-
GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...
LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...
KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE
253 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY...

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TO NOON TUESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...MAKING THEM ICY AND
DANGEROUS FOR TRAVEL.

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

[BigB0882]

We are supposed to be at 51 at 5pm. I will keep an eye to see if we are behind schedule. That could make a difference in P types if the cold air is slower to arrive.

[Ralph's Weather]

Front went through west Houston mid-morning. Got a little wind and temps steadily RISING. Just hit 60 under partly cloudy skies. What gives?!

Same for up here in Tyler where the sun has been out all day. The dry air has led less clouds than I at least anticipated which has allowed us to warm to near 50 in places. We really need the anticipated moisture return later in the week to materialize so at least when the next front comes through early next week it will have some already in place instead of having to rely purely on the Gulf. If we can get a negative tilt trough on top of that things will sure feel different around here.
The teleconnection indices sure seem to be heading in the right direction for us to start seeing some chances for rain and likely a few snows in the first half of February.

[gboudx]

Here's an update from jeff for you SETX folks.

Winter Storm heading for SE TX

Winter Storm Warning in effect from 300am to 600pm Tuesday for the following counties: Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Waller, Brazoria, Galveston, Washington, Grimes, Brazos, Burleson, Walker, San Jacinto, Polk, Liberty, and Chambers.

Winter Weather Advisory issued for the following counties: Austin, Colorado, Wharton, Matagorda, Jackson, Madison, Houston, and Trinity counties.

Discussion:
Arctic boundary is progressing off the coast this afternoon with gusty NW winds. Temperatures have yet to fall much behind the front as the cold air is lagging back across central TX. Should see the colder air mass sweep into the region this evening and overnight with temperatures falling to freezing over our northern counties by around 200am and across the central counties by 300-400am and the coast by 700-900am.

Some model changes have shown up in the 12Z (600am) runs that should at least be discussed…but I am not sure how much of an impact they are going to have on the actual outcome of this event. This still looks like a mainly freezing rain event with some sleet. Any snow accumulation should be confined to our far northern counties from College Station to Huntsville.

Models have come in warmer and drier…but this may be more of a parameterization effect of the model trying to resolve the correct P-type. However the point being is that if it is 33 and raining this is a non-event, but 31 and raining is a nightmare.

Will only make a couple of changes to the forecast P-types and accumulation amounts for Tuesday.

P-types (Updated):
North of HWY 105: sleet with some snow
North of US 59 (SW) and I-10 (E) of Houston: freezing rain mixed with some sleet, snow flurries possible toward the end
Coast to US 59 (SW) and I-10 (E): freezing rain changing to freezing rain and sleet mix, a few flurries possible

Accumulations: (Updated)
Hwy 105 north: 1-1.5 inches of snow. A trace - .05 of an inch of ice
US 59 north: .05 to .15 inch of ice/sleet. Trace amounts of snow
Coast to US 59: .10 to .15 inch of ice/sleet. Dusting of snow possible
Matagorda Bay area: .05-.10 inch of ice accumulation.

Impacts:
Big impacts still look to be on roadways, especially the bridges and overpasses. This is highly dependent on the surface air temperature being at or below freezing during the day. It is very possible we will hover in the 31-33 degree range and this may be about a degree too warm for effective ice formation until later in the afternoon hours when the sun lowers in the sky. Just impossible to attempt to determine 1 degree even a few hours out. Additionally, treated roadway surface should be able to go down to about 30 or so before ice begins to become a big problem…which also brings into question how much ice we will see on Tuesday during the day. A lot of parameters to look at and attempt to resolve with respect to road conditions on Tuesday….and none of it is easy.

I know this is not helping much with decision making…best information at this moment is that bridges and overpasses will become a problem during the day…especially by the late morning on Tuesday into the afternoon hours.

Do not think power outages will be an issue especially pulling back some on the accumulations of ice some. Gusty winds of 10-15mph will continue through the day, but with ice accumulation of .05 to .15 of an inch this should be handled.

Will update again early this evening.

[gboudx]

Yes it did, it did it until about 5 days out. I didn't no if it would be a bust or not!

Steve McCauley's Stat Method never lost it though. Right now his method is hitting at 60% which is a good sign. However, this is only for a negative tilt system with widespread precip. So it could be all rain which is not a bad thing for us.

[wxman57]

My initial observations looking out across TX and OK today are that the airmass is not as cold as the models had been predicting a few days ago. This is why the models have trended a little warmer with temps in the past few runs. I'm not too hopeful of seeing any snow in central Houston tomorrow. Can't rule it out, but I'm expecting mostly freezing rain and sleet to ice up bridges/overpasses during the afternoon. Surface roads will probably remain ice-free.

[BigB0882]

Do you think temps are going to be warmer in SELA as well or is the airmass colder over here?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

It is coming. Be patient young grasshoppers.....

Pot calling the kettle black!

So what happened to all the cold that was sent your way???

Never mind just saw Wxman57's post.