Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Steve]

Gotta go to bed, so here is a note from no/br nws who has gone to Short Term Forecast until further notice.

At 11:20 PM CST...the freeze line extended roughly from meridian to Natchez Mississippi and advancing slowly southward. No precipitation was indicated locally but sleet was occurring in the vicinity of Austin, Texas and moving east at 50 mph. Isolated showers of sleet may begin in extreme southwest mississippi by 1 am cst.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What's up Steve been awhile since seen you around. Got the abitas chilled and ready to go? Been away from computer all day so trying to play catch up. Sure hope the models are correct and we get some good winter weather. Since last weeks storm was not handled well by the models I'm clinging to hope they are underestimating this as well and we end up with more than currently shown. I know I'm being greedy but its not everyday we get this.

[MississippiWx]

0z Euro continues to show a wetter/more northerly solution. Shows 3-4 inches of snow from Baton Rouge through Southern Mississippi into Lower Alabama. It then gets into the 5-6 inch range in SE Alabama.

[northjaxpro]

Water vapor imagery depicts the Baja California shortwave beginning to move eastward, a major player for our Deep South winter event.




Meanwhile , HPC 03Z surface analysis shows the arctic frontal boundary has now moved south into the GOM and currently moving across SE GA, and will move through the remaining portions of the immediate coastal areas of the Carolinas and down across the rest of North Florida by dawn this morning.

1035mb Arctic High centered across Northern Missouri currently will continue to sink south/southeast into Tuesday, setting the stage for the polar air to be well entrenched across the Deep South region for our winter storm event.

[Jag95]

0z Euro continues to show a wetter/more northerly solution. Shows 3-4 inches of snow from Baton Rouge through Southern Mississippi into Lower Alabama. It then gets into the 5-6 inch range in SE Alabama.

How far inland in MS and AL? Mobile and Biloxi or north of there?

[MississippiWx]

Northjax,

I'm really liking the eastward movement of the southern stream system. Not a Southeast-dive like some models have been depicting. It's still moving at a fast pace as well. Maybe it helps with precip production.

[northjaxpro]

Northjax,

I'm really liking the eastward movement of the southern stream system. Not a Southeast-dive like some models have been depicting. It's still moving at a fast pace as well. Maybe it helps with precip production.

Oh , the Baja shortwave will definitely energize the atmosphere and create sufficient isentrophic lift for the next 24-36 hours all across the Gulf Coast and across a wide swath of the Deep South. Fearing though there is going to be a lot if freezing rain with this event in many areas as the arctic airmass is a bit more shallow down across areas down near or at the coastal regions.

Also, the Baha shortwave does look rather potent on WV imagery as well.

[MississippiWx]

New aviation discussion out of New Orleans was very interesting:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1137 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.AVIATION...

...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS
BEGINNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z TOMORROW. THESE IMPACTS WILL LINGER
THROUGH AROUND 00Z AND 06Z IN THE EVENING...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FIRST OCCURRING AT KMCB AND KBTR. EXPECT TO SEE A MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW DEVELOP BY 15Z AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED AT KHUM...KMSY...KNEW...KASD...AND KGPT AND WILL LAST
MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ICING ISSUES ON
AIRCRAFT AND RUNWAYS AT THESE TERMINALS...WITH TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.50" POSSIBLE BY 00Z. A MIX OF SLEET AND
SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AT THESE TERMINALS AS THE MID-LEVEL
AIRMASS COOLS AND PERSIST THROUGH 06Z. FARTHER TO NORTH...AT
KHDC...KMCB...AND KGPT...A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 15Z...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET AT KBTR AND KHDC BY 18-20Z. AT KMCB...THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...AND EXPECT
SNOW TO OCCUR AT KMCB FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. TOTAL
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THESE TERMINALS.

[Steve]

Hey Mike. I'm nodding off. Everything is ready for tomorrow. I'm going into work early but will leave hopefully fairly early in the day. Not sure what tomorrow will bring, but I'm leaning toward moderate impacts (relatively) in NOLA vs an extremely extreme event. We will see in a few hours from now.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, areas about 100-150 miles or so inland from the coast from Louisiana east to Georgia will see the best opportunities for snow accumulations on Tuesday. The cold air will be a bit deeper and dynamical cooling will be at its greatest as the precipitation moistens up that very dry column of air in those particular areas.

[MississippiWx]

Noticed the Short Term Forecast just issued by New Orleans. This really caught my attention since I live in Hattiesburg and would not expect this at all already! About to head outside to check.


.NOW...
AT 1220 AM CST...FREEZE LINE WAS ROUGHLY FROM WOODVILLE TO
BROOKHAVEN MISSISSIPPI AND MOVING SOUTH. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES WERE BEING REPORTED IN THE HATTIESBURG AREA. RADAR ALSO
INDICATED SLEET AND SNOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THAT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND BY 1
AM AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION.
RAIN WAS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE
FREEZE LINE AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

[northjaxpro]

0z Euro continues to show a wetter/more northerly solution. Shows 3-4 inches of snow from Baton Rouge through Southern Mississippi into Lower Alabama. It then gets into the 5-6 inch range in SE Alabama.

How far inland in MS and AL? Mobile and Biloxi or north of there?

I would say within 100 miles or so inland from the coast at the minimum . I would draw a line from McComb MS east to Troy Alabama and points north to where the precip shield will extend. I maybe wrong, however, I can't see the precip shield getting any farther north than the I-20 corridor. They may see some lighter snow amounts up there, but the main focus of decent accumulating snow should stay across Southern areas of MS and AL

[WXfan212]

I really like how the shortwave is digging tomorrow is gonna be an interesting day for sure feels odd being in a Southern state and talking about a snow storm

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Northjax, for us in se LA what do want to see happen with the shortwave in mexico tonight to get the most precip possible tomorrow?. Stay intact or shear apart? And obviously not dig any further south and speed up or hope it slows down?

[MississippiWx]

I can personally confirm those flurry reports the NWS was reporting here in Hattiesburg. Just went outside and it's definitely flurrying already!

[South Texas Storms]

Lucky! I'm getting a light freezing drizzle here in College Station so far. Darn warm nose. I don't think I'll get much, if any, snow from this.

[hurricanehunter69]

Buckle up sports fans, the ride is about to begin! I ofcourse will not go out on a limb and say for sure this is gonna be a major winter storm, because we've all suffered the sting of a busted winter storm forecast before......But damn, this one just feels right!!! One thing "IS" for sure, All the ingredients are in place for the "potential" of an epic, and historic "Winter Storm Leon"!

[HurriGuy]

WOW…looking back 00z NAM, it is nailing the field of moisture right on the money. Fooled me.

[HurriGuy]

But it is not doing well in what is rain/sleet/snow according to observations I am already seeing.

[Jag95]

I can personally confirm those flurry reports the NWS was reporting here in Hattiesburg. Just went outside and it's definitely flurrying already!

Cool! That's way early according to the models.