In the spirit of TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN for flash floods:
STAY INSIDE, DON'T SLIDE!
Seriously, if roads are icy, stay inside and off the roads - it's too dangerous. Your odds of having an accident go up exponentially.
Texas Winter 2013-2014
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Tweet just now from Erica Harpold, a local media traffic reporter:
Highway 183 is CLOSED at I-35 and there are so many cars stuck on I-35... impossibly to count. #ATX
Highway 183 is CLOSED at I-35 and there are so many cars stuck on I-35... impossibly to count. #ATX
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Great AFD from FWD today:
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...WE CONTINUE TO SEE WILD SWINGS FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...RUNNING THE GAMUT BETWEEN WARM AND DRY
TO SEVERE WEATHER TO WINTER STORM. OFTEN MODELS DISPLAY THEIR
WORST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. WHAT WE CAN SEE IN THE MODEL DATA IS THAT
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW PACIFIC TROUGHS TO MOVE INTO THE CONUS.
IN A MACRO SENSE...THIS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO START OFF THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS
PATTERN CHANGE IS THAT THE ADDITION OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENERGY
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD CAUSE THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY EAST OF HUDSON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT COLD SPELL TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD. THIS MEANS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE COLD
AIR PERSIST WITH AN ARCTIC FETCH WHILE PACIFIC ENERGY PROVIDES THE
LIFT AND FETCHES GULF MOISTURE FOR PRECIP. THE CURRENT CPC 8-14 DAY
FORECAST DOES SUPPORT THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
LOOKING AT COLDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. NORTH TEXAS WILL
BE ON THE SOUTHERN CUSP OF THIS SETUP...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE
FEBRUARY COULD START OFF INTERESTING WITH A FEW POTENTIAL WINTER
SYSTEMS WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS THE
ONE ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
WINTER WEATHER WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL BEAR
WATCHING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY FOR SHOWERS...AND
INCREASED THEM TO CHANCE ON TUESDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...WE CONTINUE TO SEE WILD SWINGS FROM
MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...RUNNING THE GAMUT BETWEEN WARM AND DRY
TO SEVERE WEATHER TO WINTER STORM. OFTEN MODELS DISPLAY THEIR
WORST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. WHAT WE CAN SEE IN THE MODEL DATA IS THAT
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW PACIFIC TROUGHS TO MOVE INTO THE CONUS.
IN A MACRO SENSE...THIS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO START OFF THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS
PATTERN CHANGE IS THAT THE ADDITION OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENERGY
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD CAUSE THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY EAST OF HUDSON BAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH
THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT COLD SPELL TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD. THIS MEANS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE COLD
AIR PERSIST WITH AN ARCTIC FETCH WHILE PACIFIC ENERGY PROVIDES THE
LIFT AND FETCHES GULF MOISTURE FOR PRECIP. THE CURRENT CPC 8-14 DAY
FORECAST DOES SUPPORT THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
LOOKING AT COLDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. NORTH TEXAS WILL
BE ON THE SOUTHERN CUSP OF THIS SETUP...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE
FEBRUARY COULD START OFF INTERESTING WITH A FEW POTENTIAL WINTER
SYSTEMS WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS THE
ONE ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST MOST OF THE
WINTER WEATHER WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL BEAR
WATCHING. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY FOR SHOWERS...AND
INCREASED THEM TO CHANCE ON TUESDAY.
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
2576-hour GFS shows a Cat 5 in the Gulf!
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Stay safe Portastorm, we need you around next week when North Texas and Oklahoma lights up! Same goes for Houston, if you don't have to go driving don't do it will be less of a headache.
Last edited by Ntxw on Tue Jan 28, 2014 8:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Portastorm wrote::uarrow:
2576-hour GFS shows a Cat 5 in the Gulf!
Followed by another SE Texas ice storm!
BA DUM CHING!
Too soon?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Portastorm
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:Stay safe Portastorm, we need you around next week when North Texas and Oklahoma lights up! Same goes for Houston, if you don't have to go driving don't do it will be less of a headache.
Will do! My agency is a delayed opening today and I'm not going to chance anything.
BTW, I'm liking your chances for next week. Think a winter weather event is lurking in North Texas' near future.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014
Back patio table starting to ice over. Light freezing rain here.
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Any forecast I make is based on my opinion only. Please refer to the NWS or NHC for official forecasts.
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TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
- Location: Wichita, Kansas
Can some one tall me if the first tornado watch has been issued in the U.S this year? If not then that means either Oklahoma or Texas may get the first watch of the year! What would be crazy is if they had to issue a tornado watch over a winter storm watch or warning. I don't think I have ever seen it before. It would be cool if it happened. 
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
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TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
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Super light drizzle here in SL, 38.1F/21.2F. Wind is picking up. Clouds look ominous to the north
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Rgv20
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48 of the 51 0zECMWF Ensemble Members show Snow for Harlingen with the Mean being 1.2'' and for McAllen its 46 of the 51 members with the mean being 0.8'' of Snow 
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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TeamPlayersBlue
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Re:
Rgv20 wrote:48 of the 51 0zECMWF Ensemble Members show Snow for Harlingen with the Mean being 1.2'' and for McAllen its 46 of the 51 members with the mean being 0.8'' of Snow
Ooooo weee! Go get em!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
Rgv20 wrote:48 of the 51 0zECMWF Ensemble Members show Snow for Harlingen with the Mean being 1.2'' and for McAllen its 46 of the 51 members with the mean being 0.8'' of Snow
Pulling for you!
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Any forecast I make is based on my opinion only. Please refer to the NWS or NHC for official forecasts.
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
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Re:
TheProfessor wrote:Can some one tall me if the first tornado watch has been issued in the U.S this year? If not then that means either Oklahoma or Texas may get the first watch of the year! What would be crazy is if they had to issue a tornado watch over a winter storm watch or warning. I don't think I have ever seen it before. It would be cool if it happened.
This was WW 7
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0007.html
WWs 1, 4, 5 and 6 were also TORs.
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BigB0882
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Re:
Rgv20 wrote:48 of the 51 0zECMWF Ensemble Members show Snow for Harlingen with the Mean being 1.2'' and for McAllen its 46 of the 51 members with the mean being 0.8'' of Snow
Good luck!!
Do you have any way to tell me what the ensembles say for snow today in Baton Rouge?
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TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3506
- Age: 29
- Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
- Location: Wichita, Kansas
Re: Re:
WeatherGuesser wrote:TheProfessor wrote:Can some one tall me if the first tornado watch has been issued in the U.S this year? If not then that means either Oklahoma or Texas may get the first watch of the year! What would be crazy is if they had to issue a tornado watch over a winter storm watch or warning. I don't think I have ever seen it before. It would be cool if it happened.
This was WW 7
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0007.html
Ok never mind about the first watch then.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
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weatherguy425
- Tropical Storm
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:Stay safe Portastorm, we need you around next week when North Texas and Oklahoma lights up! Same goes for Houston, if you don't have to go driving don't do it will be less of a headache.
Looking forward to, perhaps, multiple winter weather chances next 7-21 days. Oh, and cold air of course.
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Portastorm
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Re: Re:
weatherguy425 wrote:Ntxw wrote:Stay safe Portastorm, we need you around next week when North Texas and Oklahoma lights up! Same goes for Houston, if you don't have to go driving don't do it will be less of a headache.
Here's hoping we can just get some moisture into the South Plains in any form, right?!
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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