Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The dry pattern will continue to dominate in PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 AM AST SUN JAN 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MON WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TRADES EXPECTED TO SURGE MON AS BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH
MIGRATES WWD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WITH PW FCST UNDER AN INCH PER
MODEL GUIDANCE AND BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. A SURGE IN THE
EASTERLIES AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A SRN STREAM TROF
EXITING THE TX GULF COAST WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MON-MON NIGHT WITH BKN
CLOUDS AND GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. HOWEVER...FRESH
TRADE WINDS COULD ADVECT OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTERS INLAND OVER
WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND BUT OVERALL IS A DRY PATTERN
ACTUALLY A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ENTIRE AREA WI VRY ISOLD SHRA. WINDS BLO FL100 E
15-25 KT BCMG ESE ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN MON AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH
EARLY THU THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD
5-7 FT EARLY MON WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ALMOST EVERYWHERE XCPT
AMZ745.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY AROUND THE CAMP SANTIAGO
AREA WITH MIN_RH AROUND 40% AND 20-FOOT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS MON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING TRADE
WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 75 83 76 / 10 40 40 40
STT 77 77 78 76 / 10 40 40 40

[Macrocane]

I've updated the Central America Cold Surges Thread with the observation from the coldest event in years that occurred from January 15 to January 19: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2367774#p2367774

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST SUN JAN 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS LIMITED SIGNIFICANTLY THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES WERE SHOWING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY
TOMORROW...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
REGION.

FOR MID WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND WILL PROMOTE
VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
INDICATED VERY DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION MY MID NEXT
WEEK...PROBABLY LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
IN THE LONG TERM. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MID NEXT
WEEK AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EASTERLY WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT 26/23Z...DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LATE TONIGHT...PASSING SHRA EXPECTED...CAUSING VCSH ACROSS TISX/TIST
AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN TO 7 FEET AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AND WINDS STRENGTHENING MONDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. REFER TO LATEST MARINE FORECAST PRODUCTS
FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 71 83 / 40 40 40 10
STT 73 85 74 84 / 40 40 40 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today. Mainly dry weather will prevail from Tuesday thru the end of this week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST MON JAN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES ACROSS THE ECNTRL ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVR THE REGION WED THRU FRI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TRADE WIND SURGE WILL MOVE WWD TODAY FROM THE
TROP ATLC ACROSS THE ERN CARIB AND ADVECT HIGHER TPW AIR INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH BKN CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IN WHICH THESE SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED
SHOWERS WILL BE VERY BRIEF LEAVING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY A TRACE TO 0.05 INCHES.

SHORTWAVE-TROUGH CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND BY PASS THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING NEAR INTACT. A SECOND SHORTWAVE-
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUE MORNING AND FEED INTO CNTRL ATLC
CUTOFF LOW. LOCAL AREA WILL BECOME UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENT PATTERN LEADING TO SHARP DRYING TUE THROUGH WED. DRY
AND WINDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER
STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR WI ISOLD SHRA. WINDS BLO FL150 E-SE 15-25 KT
BCMG E TONITE-TUE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 20 KT ALL WEEK UNDER A STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND
SEAS 6-8 FT IN PREDOMINANT ENE WIND GENERATED WAVES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND EVEN THE
RISK OF A SHOWER SHOULD KEEP FIRE DANGER RELATIVELY LOW TODAY
DESPITE STRONG WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SEE FWF FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 76 82 76 / 20 10 10 20
STT 78 77 78 76 / 40 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
220 PM AST MON JAN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WAS SEEN IN SATELITE
IMAGES TODAY AS AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTED THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WERE MORE EVIDENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN DRIER BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AS A VERY STABLE AIR MASS ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE
EAST. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IS IN RESPOND TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE WEATHER LOCALLY NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS
WILL TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. ISOLD
-SHRA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS AND SOME OF THESE COULD ENTER
THE VICINITY OF TNCM AND TKPK UNTIL 28/00Z THEN ACROSS TIST AND TISX
AFTER 27/22Z. MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS UNTIL SUNSET. HOWEVER THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. WINDS BLO FL150 E-SE
15-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...BOUYS OBSERVATIONS WERE SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
SWELL ACTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BUOY 41043 LOCATED AROUND
180 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN SHOWING SWELLS OF BELOW 7 FEET.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE TEMPORARILY...AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME STRONGER AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHEN. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. REFER TO LATEST MARINE FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 71 83 / 10 10 20 20
STT 75 86 73 84 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will prevail for most of this week in PR and VI.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST TUE JAN 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN EXPECTED TO
ESTABLISH QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS AND VERY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS INSIST IN BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE THU WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL ABOUT THAT GIVEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN SUN WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENING/LIFTING TO 600 MB AND PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ENHANCING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. WINDS SHIFT TO AN ENE DIRECTION
WHICH SHOULD ALSO FAVOR CLOUD CLUSTERS AND NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ON
THE NORTHEAST COAST. OVERALL...BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS
SAT-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WI ISOLD SHRA. WINDS BLO FL150 E 10-22 KT INCR 17-27
KT ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT MOST OF THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS TODAY AND WED WITH
20-FOOT WINDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH AND MIN_RH`S IN THE 30S. FIRE WX
CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY TO IMPROVE UNTIL SAT OR SUN AT THE
EARLIEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 82 76 / 10 20 20 40
STT 85 77 84 77 / 20 20 20 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
237 PM AST TUE JAN 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN COASTAL AREAS
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PROMOTE A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WRF AND GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY-SUNDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENING AND PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE
MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. OVERALL...TYPICAL WX FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS BLO FL150 ESE TO E AT 10-22 KT TURNING
MORE FROM THE EAST TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS GENERATING CHOPPY SEAS. WINDS NEAR 20 KT
AND SEAS 6-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 86 / 20 20 40 40
STT 77 85 77 85 / 20 20 50 50

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The dry pattern will continue to dominate in PR and VI with only a few isolated showers moving thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST WED JAN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE TUTT LOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
LIFTING NORTHWARDS WHILE WEAKENING. THE PRESENT PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AND
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN
A LOCALLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS DOMINANT TRADE WIND
FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING...LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND A FEW
MAY BRUSH THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. A GRADUAL
CLEARING AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLANDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ONE OR TWO
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY FORM AND QUICKLY STREAM ACROSS MAINLAND
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY FAIR AND
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR TODAY.

SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER AS WELL AS LATEST GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST AND OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH
ONLY BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING SHOWERS WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEREFORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AND SUPPRESSED. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THIS QUICK
SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LEAVING
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE OVERHEAD AND SHIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THIS WILL ALLOW
A BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
SOME ISOLATED SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THRU 29/22Z. OCNL BRIEF MVFR CIG TKPK TIL 29/14Z. WINDS BLO
FL150 ESE TO E AT 10-22 KT TURNING MORE FROM THE EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WERE 4 TO 6 FEET DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND UP TO AS MUCH AS 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...LOCAL PASSAGES...AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE DUE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WIND GENERATED CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 73 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 74 85 75 / 20 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST WED JAN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TUTT LOW ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AMPLIFIES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
IN COASTAL AREAS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PROMOTE A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME TO RESULT IN BRIEF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IF ANY...
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. IN FACT...BEST PATCH OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A MOISTENING TREND OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THRU NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS BLO FL150 GENERALLY E AT 10-15 KT
WITH LOCAL VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS AND THEREFORE CREATE CHOPPY SEAS. WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND
SEAS 6-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 83 76 83 / 30 30 30 30
STT 74 85 74 85 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
AND PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...A TUTT LOW CONTINUED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THEREFORE A MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG EAST NORTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO GO UNCHANGED
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. INTERVALS OF PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY... THEREFORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IF ANY
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A SURGE OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...STILL NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS STILL FORECAST TO BEGIN TO ERODE OVERHEAD AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EASTERLY TRADES ALONG WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THRU 31/02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL AFT 30/12Z AT TIST...
TNCM...TKPK IN SHRA AND MVFR EXPECTED AT TJMZ AFT 30/17Z DUE TO
CIGS. WINDS BLO FLO3O GENERALLY FM E AT 10-20 KT WITH LOCAL SFC
WND VARIATIONS...BCMG 15-30 KTS FM ABV FL030 AND UP TO FL200.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SOME EARLIER SHIP
OBSERVATIONS AND LOCAL BUOY DATA ALL SUGGEST CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS
SEAS CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO THE FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. FOR THIS REASON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE REINSTATED FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
WATERS AND PASSAGES TODAY AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE NEAR SHOWERS WATERS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
AND UPDATED INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 73 80 73 / 40 40 40 60
STT 84 73 85 75 / 40 40 40 60

[cycloneye]

Scattered showers will move thru the PR and VI area this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST THU JAN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS TUTT LOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AMPLIFIES INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS...THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN COASTAL AREAS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME TO RESULT IN
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH WEAKENING INVERSION AND MOISTENING TREND OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION CLUSTERING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BUILD ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THRU 31/02Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VCSH DURING NIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND TJSJ. WINDS BLO FL015 GENERALLY FM E AT
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KT...BECOMING MORE FROM ENE ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...CHOPPY SEAS AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS NEAR 21 KTS AND SEAS 6-7
FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 81 76 82 / 40 30 60 30
STT 74 85 74 84 / 40 30 60 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISSUED BY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

15:13 UTC JANUARY 29 2014

DISCUSSION ..A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS DRIVING A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING ONLY SHALLOW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BEING TRANSPORTED ON THE WIND FLOW. THIS IS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AS IT RELATES TO SHOWERS SINCE THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE REPORTING MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS SO FAR TODAY. CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWING A DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVEL. THE OUTLOOK IS PROJECTING A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WHEN A TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. EVEN THEN SHOWERS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. IN THE MEANWHILE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AGGRAVATED DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL WAVE HEIGHTS.

FORECASTER

LLEWELLYN DYER

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru most of PR this weekend as they are transported by the trade winds.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 AM AST FRI JAN 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUED TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A
CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THEREAFTER UPPER
RIDGE IS TO SHIFT WESTWARDS WHILE ERODING...AS TUTT AND ASSOCIATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...LIFTS WEST NORTHWEST CLOSER TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD BUT STRONG
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW SCATTERED TO BROKEN PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUED
TO SUGGEST PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TO DOMINATE
AND INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WAS BEING ENHANCED BY THE TUTT LOW
WHICH CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD CLOSER TOWARDS THE ISLAND
CHAIN. FOR THIS REASON...TRADE WIND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
PLENTIFUL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF TRADE
WIND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...DO EXPECT GOOD WETTING RAINS IN SOME AREAS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SO FAR ALL MODELS GUIDANCE
WERE IN AGREEMENT AND SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATERS UP TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...THEN DECREASING ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LESS FREQUENT PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS EXPECTED
DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA THRU 31/16Z WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA
PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA
EXPECTED BETWEEN 31/15Z AND 31/23Z MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND THE USVI..WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE VCSH AND TEMPO SHRA FOR THE PR
AND USVI TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10-20KTS AND GUSTY ON
OCCASIONS.

&&

.MARINE...BASED OM LATEST BUOY DATA AND PREVIOUS MARINE OBSERVATIONS...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUED IN THE OUTER WATERS AND EXPOSED
COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT THESE CONDITION TO PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH SEAS REACHING UP TO 7 FEET AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
UP TO 21 KNOTS OR SO BY THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 73 / 50 60 60 60
STT 84 73 85 75 / 50 60 60 60

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. It will be a weekend with scattered showers in the PR/VI area and also in the rest of the NE Caribbean islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST FRI JAN 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TUTT LOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC DIGS INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS OVER LOCAL WATERS...THE USVI AND THE NORTH AND EASTERN
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S IN
COASTAL AREAS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.

AS TUTT LOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC DIGS INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...EROSION OF THE SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL CONTINUE AS WELL
AS A MOISTENING TREND. THEREFORE...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION CLUSTERING
ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF PUERTO RICO CANT BE RULED OUT
DUE TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. AT THIS
TIME...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS
THE INDUCED TUTT TROUGH AT SURFACE REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE
EROSION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WITH BRIEF MVFR DUE TO -SHRA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VCSH AND ISOLD-SCT SHRA EXPECTED BETWEEN 31/18Z AND 31/23Z
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10-20KTS BLW015 AND GUSTY
ON OCCASIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...CHOPPY SEAS AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH WINDS NEAR 21 KTS
AND SEAS 6-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...JANUARY 2014 RANKS AS THE WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD AT
JSJ WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 80.2F. ACROSS THE USVI ISLANDS...
JANUARY RANKS AS THE 8TH AND 7TH WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD AT IST
AND ISX WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 79.2 AND 79.0F RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 60 60 60 60
STT 73 85 75 84 / 60 60 60 60

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru not only in PR and VI but also in the NE Carribbean islands as a trough moves thru this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDER ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. AN INDUCED LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AD
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE FAST
MOVING LEAVING MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PRODUCING A GENERAL FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE PAST WEEKS...IS BEGINNING
TO ERODE AS A TUTT LOW MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...JUST
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE AN EROSION OF THE
SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THUS...MORE MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PRODUCING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION...SPECIALLY ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF PUERTO RICO CANT BE RULED OUT DUE TO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE
EROSION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 01/12Z. ISOLD-SCT PASSING -SHRA/SHRA EMBEDDED IN
L/LVL CLDS BTW FL020-FL080 WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA AND A FEW TAF SITES MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDS AND BRIEF GUSTY SFC WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM ENE AT
10-25 KTS BLO FL150...THEN CONT TO INCR W/HT BCMG NRLY ABV FL300.NO
SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE REMAINED NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS...WHILE SEAS ARE ABOVE 8 FT AT THE OUTER ATLANTIC BUOY.
WINDS MAY INCREASE A LITTLE AND SEAS WILL NOT DECREASE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 80 71 / 60 60 60 30
STT 84 74 84 75 / 60 60 60 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST SAT FEB 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS SHORTWAVE VORTICES FEED INTO CNTRL ATLC TROUGH. BERMUDA-
AZORES HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRES GRADIENT THROUGH ALL OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CONTINUED PROMOTE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION THROUGH MON. FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL ALSO AID IN ENHANCING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN WINDWARD
AREAS. OVERALL...COOLER...WINDY AND SHOWERY THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON WITH
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING TUE AND WED WITH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION STRENGTHENING LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN BUILDS GRADUALLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALL OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TODAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS
IN PASSING SHRA OVER THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ
AND TJBQ. DEEP LAYER EASTERLY WINDS AT 15-30 KT WILL CONTINUE BELOW
FL150.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT THRU THE FIVE-DAY
PERIOD. STRONG PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS ALL
OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO IMPROVEMENT IN SIGHT ANYTIME SOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 81 77 83 / 60 60 50 50
STT 77 84 77 84 / 60 60 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today and tomorrow as a trough lingers in the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...PROMOTING A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WERE
FAST MOVING LEAVING MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TUTT LOW MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS FEATURE PRODUCED AN EROSION OF THE SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER THE
REGION ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THUS EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION...SPECIALLY ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF PUERTO RICO CANT BE RULED OUT DUE TO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE
EROSION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TODAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS
IN PASSING SHRA OVER THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ
AND TJBQ. DEEP LAYER EASTERLY WINDS AT 15-30 KT WILL CONTINUE BELOW
FL150.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 82 72 / 60 50 50 40
STT 84 73 85 75 / 60 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN CNTRL ATLC TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST THRU MID WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD NEXT WEEKEND. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE-TROF. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVR THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HRS. TROF AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
PR AROUND 18Z MON WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING
LEADING TO STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND SHARP
DRYING MON AFTERNOON THRU EARLY WED. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN WED
NIGHT THRU MID FRI WITH A PASSAGE OF A LOW-MID LEVEL TROF IN THE
EASTERLIES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD/STRENGTHEN OVR THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. TRADES ALSO SURGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRES EXITS THE NRN MID ATLC AND
TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT CLOUDS WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA OVER THE LEEWARD AND
USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ THRU MON MORNING. DEEP LAYER EASTERLY
WINDS AT 15-25 KT WILL CONTINUE BELOW FL150.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT EXCEPT 6-8 FT OFFSHORE
ATLC WATERS. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT THU BUT STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 82 77 83 / 50 50 40 40
STT 77 84 77 85 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today helped by the trade winds combined with a trough that lingers nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST MON FEB 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A TUTT JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOMES A TROUGH AND THEN REDEVELOPS NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA
WHILE A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK. THIS LOW EVENTUALLY MOVES UP THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID LAYERS REMAIN
MODESTLY MOIST EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 4/00Z AND 5/18Z.
LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE WILL BE NOTED ABOVE 500 MB THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL
WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER HISPANIOLA EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
LEVELS MOISTURE INCREASES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
REMAINS SHALLOW THROUGH OUT THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS GREW OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS BOTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME OF
EASTERN PUERTO RICO ALSO HAD RAIN. SHOWERS MOVED WEST AT ABOUT 24
KNOTS. BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CONSISTENT MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD MID WEEK. CURRENT
PRECIPITABLE WATER MODELS SHOW MOISTURE FALLING FROM 1.60 TO
1.08 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SHOOTING UP TO 1.6
INCHES ON FRIDAY WHEN MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED THE WEEK AFTER NEXT WEEK.

SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR 20 NORTH 50 WEST THAT ALSO APPEARS TO BE
BRINGING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL ON THE NORTH COAST. WINDS WILL TURN
SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST MID WEEK...BUT EXPECT SOME SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH DAY THAT WILL KEEP NORTH COAST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH COAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90 DEGREES IN AREAS
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE DOES NOT PENETRATE WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SHRA THRU MON BUT VFR HIGHLY DOMINANT.
WINDS BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER MID-MORNING
ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41043 STILL REACHING 8 TO 9 FEET MAKING
SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA WATERS. OTHERWISE FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL BRING 7
FOOT SEAS TO MOST AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN THAT ARE NOT PROTECTED.
SEAS OF 7 FEET WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 75 / 50 50 40 50
STT 84 75 85 76 / 50 40 20 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST MON FEB 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE FEW
THE DAYS AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
WEST AND A TUTT LOW TO THE EAST. TUTT AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FAVORING AN UPPER CONVERGENCE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY
TODAY HELPING TO ENHANCE THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE EARLY TODAY...PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN
THIRD OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO RICO.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE AN UPPER CONVERGENCE PATTERN. THEN...
MOISTURE WILL RECOVER AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW-
MID LEVEL PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH RES WRF-NMM MODEL INDICATES THE PWAT PEAKING AT
1.6 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A FEW ROUNDS
OF TRADE WINDS SHOWERS AFFECTING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS DECOUPLE AROUND SUNSET
AND PICKUP AGAIN TOMORROW WITH ENE WINDS 15G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE WEEK.
SEAS OF 5-7 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS AND
6-8 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GAVE IT A VERY CLOSE LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CRITERIA TOMORROW. HUMIDITIES ARE MORE THAN LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
RFW CRITERIA. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN SFC
WINDS BY 2 KNOTS AND 10 KNOTS AT 925 MB. WIND DIRECTION IS MORE FROM
THE EAST AND EAST NORTHEAST TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER
LAND FRICTION. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SFC WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL SHORT
OF RFW CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 71 82 / 20 20 30 50
STT 74 84 74 84 / 20 20 40 50