Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Beautiful weather in Trinidad the last few days. I think the "dry season" may be finally under way...

Indeed the dry season looks to dominate all the Eastern Caribbean region as it normally does this time of year.

[Macrocane]

Hi everyone, I've updated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations from the January 22-23 event: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2372352#p2372352

Temperatures have been rising since February started, this weeken we had a weak cold surge and in a couple of days we're gonna have another weak one. It seems like February will end up warmer than normal if a strong cold surge doesn't come in the rest of the month.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEAK RIPPLES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
INCLUDING ONE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK JET WILL
SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE TRAILING
BEHIND IT AND OVER THE AREA. A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST. MID LAYERS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE EASTERN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...BUT A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY CAUSING GRADIENTS TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...IT
WILL BE WEAKER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE NOT YET DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN PUERTO
RICO AND FEW ARE NOTED OVER LOCAL WATERS...NEVERTHELESS THERE
IS STILL SOME CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS VIGOROUS AS THE LATE DEVELOPERS
WERE MONDAY AFTERNOON SINCE MOISTURE IS NOT AS GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THEN AND SHOULD REMAIN MORE FREQUENT
UNTIL FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS NEXT WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE RELATIVELY RICH AT THE 850 MB LEVEL OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...BUT
SUBSIDENCE AND SOME INVERSIONS WILL INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION OVER
THE LOCAL AREA EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO
AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. TODAY BOTH A MARINE INVERSION AND A RELATIVELY
STRONG ONE AT 550 MB WAS NOTED. THESE HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA AND THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE E TO ESE 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK LEAVING SEAS AT OR
BELOW 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 85 / 20 20 10 30
STT 74 84 75 84 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
928 PM AST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT PERTURBATION EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU WHILE WEAKENING. OTHERWISE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WED NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SIG
DRYING EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STEERING WINDS (0-3KM) STRENGTHEN A BIT TOMORROW AND
BECOME MORE FROM THE ESE/SE PUSHING AFTERNOON SHALLOW CONVECTION
TO NORTHWEST PR. A WEAK TUTT PERTURBATION WILL MOVE ACROSS PR THU
AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE. OVERALL...THIS
FEATURE LOOKS PRETTY WEAK AND THINK THAT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL MANIFEST IN MORE CLOUDS THAN ANYTHING ELSE. ON FRI...MODELS
SHOW 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES RAPIDLY BECOMING MORE STABLE IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. ON SAT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE WITH MODELS INDICATING A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DOWNWARD MOTION. K INDEX...850 THETAE AND PW ALL
SHOW A SHARP DECREASE. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK NIL EVEN CLOUDS WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN
SUN HOWEVER MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS STRONG AND MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
WILL TAKE SVRL MORE DAYS UNTIL TUE TO RECOVER. OVERALL...VERY DRY
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER ON THE SOUTH COAST.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only isolated afternoon showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST WED FEB 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION.
HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY INCREASING SLIGHTLY THE RISK OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED MAINLY ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS SINCE MIDNIGHT. LAND BREEZES MAINTAINED THE
SHOWERS OFF SHORE MOST OF THE NIGHT. ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED
INLAND OVER EL YUNQUE AND HUMACAO/LAS PIEDRAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATEST SOUNDING DATA AND SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATE
A FAIRLY STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PUNCTUATED BY LOCALIZED SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-STRENGTHEN FRIDAY...REACHING THE MAXIMUM
AMPLITUDE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS AND A
FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL.
ALL IN ALL...DRY AND STABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK
EXCEPT ON THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION INCREASES
SOMEWHAT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR RESULTING IN LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSC
AND VCSH AT TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT 12/20Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE EAST AT 10-15KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL ACROSS
ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY CONDITIONS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND VERY DRY
FUELS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY ON THE SOUTH
COAST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO 50
PERCENT AND 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 74 / 20 10 20 0
STT 85 74 84 76 / 20 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
331 PM AST WED FEB 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER SAINT CROIX AND SAINT JOHN
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AS A DEEP TROUGH PRESSES TOWARD THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. A DIMINISHING JET WILL CROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LEAVING A TRAILING RIDGE THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST CARRYING SOME PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS.
GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WAS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES AT 820 MB DROPPED 7 DEGREES CENTIGRADE DURING THE 24
HOURS FROM 11/12Z AND 12/12Z. THIS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO BEGIN
BEFORE NOON OVER TRUJILLO ALTO AND SOUTHERN GUAYNABO. THEN DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS STRONG SHOWERS WITH TOPS BELOW 20 KFT
FORMED OVER MANY AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO IN THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES AND CONTINUED AS OF 3:30
PM AST. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED DOWNSTREAM FROM SAINT
THOMAS.

THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO EVOLVE WITH A SLOWLY DRYING BUT
UNSTEADY SOLUTION...HOWEVER THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT DECEPTIVE AND
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR BETTER SHOWERS THAN YESTERDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SHALLOW SHOWERS...NOT WELL HANDLED
BY THE MODEL...POP UP DURING THE GOOD HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE ISLANDS. MOISTURE INDICATED BY THE MIMIC AND INFRA RED
IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LEAVING SHOWERS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS AND JUST ONSHORE ON THE WINDWARD COASTS DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
TRANSLATION OF A WESTERLY JET AT UPPER LEVELS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL ALSO FAVOR SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LOCAL PRESSURE WEAKNESSES AT THE SURFACE ARE ALSO DIMINISHING IN
THE GFS FORECAST AND WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
IS ANTICIPATED...BUT SOME HEATING ON THE NORTH COAST IN THE
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE EXPECTED TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PDS OF VCSH AT TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AT LEAST THRU 12/22Z. PERIODS OF MVFR
SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN WESTERN PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS UNTIL
12/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KT WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT STILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 86 / 30 40 20 30
STT 75 85 77 85 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
859 PM AST WED FEB 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
THEN WEAKEN SAT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE LOCATED OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS TOMORROW OVR NCNTRL AND
NORTHWEST PR. HOWEVER...NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THIS WAVE OR
MOISTURE PER LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AND THIS
REMAINS ON TRACK BASED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH NOW
SHOWS AREA UNDER VERY DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT. MODELS NOW SHOW QUICK
EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FRI WITH ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING ABSOLUTELY STABLE WITH VERY WEAK H85-H7 LAPSE RATES AND A
SHARP DROP IN PW...H85 THETAE AND K INDEX. DRY FRI NIGHT AND SAT
UNDER STRONG RIDGE ALOFT.

A SERIES OF POLAR VORTICES EXITING THE NORTHEAST US COAST WILL
BEGIN TO ERODE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SAT NIGHT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERY UNTIL TUE NIGHT AT
THE EARLIEST. OVERALL...VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PDS OF SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND TISX
BETWEEN 13/12Z AND 13/18Z AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...13/18Z-23Z...
AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO
10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH
COAST FRI BUT APPEAR MORE LIKELY ON SAT. EVEN AFTER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WEAKENS...MODELS SHOW NO SIG MOISTURE RECOVERY UNTIL TUE
NIGHT OR WED SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD LAST SVRL DAYS.
OTHERWISE...VERY DRY WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED ON THE SOUTH
COAST UNTIL POSSIBLY MON OR TUE WHEN STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 76 83 / 0 20 10 0
STT 76 78 77 78 / 20 20 10 0

[Macrocane]

San Miguel volcano erupted again this afternoon but it was much weaker than the December eruption, no damages were reported as the ash fell very close to the crater, here's a video:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkJQ5zwysfY&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today with only a few showers moving thru PR and VI.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
OVER LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN COASTAL AREAS WITH
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK
AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY TO RESULT IN
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AS WELL AS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER W AND NW PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND A SHARP DECREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH A STRONGER SUBSIDENCE CAP AND ABSOLUTELY
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF ANY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW PREVAILS. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF PDS OF SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT
TJSJ AND TISX BETWEEN 13/12Z AND 13/18Z AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS... 13/18-23Z...AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-6 FT AND WINDS AROUND 17 KTS EXPECTED TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 84 76 / 30 10 20 10
STT 84 74 85 76 / 20 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST THU FEB 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE ACROSS CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK JET WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY. NEVERTHELESS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTH AMERICA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITH A RIDGE TRAILING OVER THE LOCAL AREA NOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AT MID LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL BE REINFORCED TO MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY NEXT WEEK. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
LOCAL WATERS AND WINDWARD SLOPES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER GENERAL DRYING ON SATURDAY.

&&


.DISCUSSION...OCASSIONAL SHOWERS MOVED OVER SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO
DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING UP TO 0.93 INCHES IN 4 HOURS AT RIO
CAYAGUAS IN CERRO GORDO. SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA
PREVENTED THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA AT MIDDAY BUT SOME CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS
AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
UNTIL SUNSET. A STREAMER ALSO FORMED OFF OF SAINT CROIX AND WAS
CROSSING THE EASTERN END OF VIEQUES MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS BRING IN THE BEST MOISTURE OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS BY 14/12Z
AND SHOWERS IN ALL BUT THE SHADOWED AREAS OF PUERTO RICO ARE
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THIS BRINGS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE GREATER
SAN JUAN METRO AREA TONIGHT AND ANYTIME THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BUT
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PUERTO RICO WILL HAVE QUITE A FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS ACTIVITY. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED.

WINDS CHANGE TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CONSOLIDATES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK NEXT
WEEK AND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. UNTIL THEM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH VCSH. EXPECT BRIEF PDS OF SHRA BETWEEN
13/18Z AND 13/23Z...AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 87 / 30 20 30 20
STT 75 85 76 85 / 50 30 40 10

[cycloneye]

Southern Puerto Rico is under a Fire Weather Watch as the dry season is dominating as it does this time of year.

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
852 PM AST THU FEB 13 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND MONA
ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

PRZ014-141100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.A.0001.140215T1400Z-140215T2100Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND MONA ISLAND-
852 PM AST THU FEB 13 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 45 PERCENT
AND WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014.

* WINDS: 20-FOOT WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.

* KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI): 670.

* 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE: 7 TO 8 PERCENT.

* MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY: 40 TO 45 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CARE WITH
RESPECT TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE WILDFIRES.
AVOID ANY EQUIPMENT THAT CAN CAUSE SPARKS NEAR DRY GRASS OR
BRUSH. DO NOT TOSS CIGARETTES ON THE GROUND. REPORT NEW
WILDFIRES QUICKLY TO THE NEAREST FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICE. OUTDOOR BURNING IS PROHIBITED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR TYPICALLY 24 TO 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE. LISTEN
FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

ROSA

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather with only some isolated showers will move thru PR and VI this weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST FRI FEB 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OVER LOCAL WATERS AND THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE FOOTHILLS WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
FLOW.

A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...LINGERING
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO
RESULT IN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NW PR LATER
TODAY.

TONIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THE WEATHER SCENARIO CHANGE
TO EVEN DRIER AND ABSOLUTELY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH A STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY AS AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS WITH A RECOVERY IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SURFACE WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF SHRA BETWEEN 14/12Z-18Z
AROUND TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY
CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS AND SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PR...LIKELY
AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ BETWEEN 14/17Z AND
14/23Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
ON A RED FLAG EVENT FOR THE SOUTH COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED. THE DAY BEFORE THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
UPPER RIDGE IS NOTORIOUS FOR BEING CRITICAL FIRE DAYS. MODEL TRENDS
FROM VARIOUS MODELS SHOW A 5-KT INCREASE IN SFC WINDS AT CAMP SANTIAGO
AND A 10% PERCENT DROP IN RH FOR SAT. SIG MOISTURE RECOVERY IS NOT
LIKELY UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 40 0 0 0
STT 86 75 86 75 / 20 0 0 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST FRI FEB 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE...INDUCING A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS...THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER LATE IN THE MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...
SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...MOVING LATER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEREFORE...A
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
WEEKEND. AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE EAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES OF SHOWER WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR AT TJMZ TIL 14/22Z AND AT TNCM
AND TKPK THRU PD. SHRA ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO WILL DIMINISH AFT 14/22Z...BUT SCT SHOWERS ON THE
WINDWARD SLOPES WILL CONT THROUGH 15/22Z. OCNL MTN OBSCURATIONS.
LLVL WINDS ESE TO SE UP TO 15 KT BELOW 20 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN SHOWERS WERE DETECTED LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE SOUTH
COAST...THE FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN
AND FOR THE MONA ISLAND AND FOR THAT REASON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 85 / 10 10 10 10
STT 75 86 75 86 / 30 30 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
952 PM AST FRI FEB 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SAT THEN ERODE
QUICKLY SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WRN ATLC MID NEXT WEEK WITH STRENGTHENING
TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ERODE THIS EVENING AS SEEN IN
SEVERAL SATELLITE DERIVED PW ANALYSIS. 15/00Z JSJ RAOB AND LATEST
LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOW MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW
800 MB. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT
UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. 850-700 LAPSE RATES BECOME
ABSOLUTELY STABLE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND REALLY DON`T SEE
ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN SAT
NIGHT WITH GFS INDICATING 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES BECOMING A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE SUN AFTERNOON OVR WRN PR PERHAPS ENOUGH TO YIELD AN
ISOLD SHOWER OR TWO DESPITE VERY DRY AIR MASS. OTHERWISE...THE WEEKEND
LOOKS PRETTY DRY.

STILL NOT MUCH EXPECTED ON MON BUT NOTICEABLE COOLER AS RIDGE
WEAKENS FURTHER AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY.
THINGS FINALLY MOISTEN UP MID NEXT WEEK AS POLAR PERTURBATIONS
ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. TRADES ALSO STRENGTHEN AS
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLC ENHANCING PRECIP IN
UPSLOPE/WINDWARD AREAS. OVERALL...COOLER AND WETTER FROM WED ON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL WINDS ESE AT 5 TO 10 KTS...INCREASING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS AFT 15/14Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT THROUGH SUN BUILDING
5-7 FT MON AND MON NIGHT IN NW SWELLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN HUMIDITIES DROPPING
BELOW 45% SAT DUE TO THE FACT THAT SIG MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN
THE LOW LEVELS ACCORDING TO NASA SPORT LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANALYSIS. SOME RAIN ALSO FELL AT THE CAMP SANTIAGO SITE TODAY
FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WINDY CONDITIONS. SO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. PERHAPS A LITTLE DRYER SUN
BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLACKEN OFF A BIT. FIRE WX WATCH WAS
CANCELLED EARLIER AND REPLACED WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. WHILE
NOT LIKELY...RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD STILL OCCUR SAT AND/OR SUN
ON THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 74 83 / 0 0 0 10
STT 77 85 77 85 / 10 0 10 0

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will continue to dominate the weather in PR and VI for today and Sunday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST SAT FEB 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST... AND CONTINUE TO ERODE BY SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS STARTING ON TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS
DUE TO A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEST OF PR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN TODAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LITTLE IF ANY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UP
TO THE 800MB LAYER AS INDICATED BY THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECREASING TO AROUND 1
INCH BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID THAT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF PR.

FARLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING IN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. STARTING ON TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...THE LOCAL WINDS WITH
ALSO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

SO AS FAR AS EXPECTED WEATHER GOES...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW TO HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE MOISTURE IS PRETTY SHALLOW. THEN
SHOWERS COMING IN WITH THE TRADES AS THE PATCHES OF MOISTURE MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA STARTING ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL WINDS ESE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS MAY REACH UP
TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING
THE USVI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 72 / 0 10 10 30
STT 84 74 85 74 / 0 10 0 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST SAT FEB 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE...INDUCING A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED ONLY FEW LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN RAIN FREE. A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING
WATERS DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO INDUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO EACH AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOSTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF WEEKEND.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST WHILE ERODE EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHENS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A
RESULT...THE WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE
FROM THE EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE CHANGE IN THE WIND FLOW WILL
INDUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AS PATCHES OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
DUE TO THE EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 50 PERCENT AND
WINDS GREATER THAN 15 MPH FOR THE REST OF WEEKEND...THE POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
FOR THE MONA ISLAND WILL BE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN
UNTIL SUNDAY AND CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF LESS THAN
45 ARE POSSIBLE IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIMES DURING THE PERIOD.
THEREFORE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 72 82 / 10 10 30 30
STT 74 84 74 84 / 10 0 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
939 PM AST SAT FEB 15 2014

.UPDATE...LATEST 16/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1.09 INCHES OR LESS NOW ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL
DRY CONDITIONS WILL WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF WEEKEND...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EARLY MORNING SHOWER MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. ON SUNDAY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
ISLANDS WITH LIMITED OR NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.FIRE WEATHER...THE SOUTH PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO AND MONA ISLAND CAN
AGAIN EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
FOR THIS REASON A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT...WITH
POSSIBLE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT IN
ISOLATED AREAS FOR AT LEAST 1-3 HOURS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF UP TO 15 MPH OR SO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST SUN FEB 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
COME OUT OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA...INCREASING WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND
ERODE...LEAVING A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A PATCH OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ENTERING THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH IN ADDITION TO THE
RADAR...SATELLITE DERIVED TPW AS WELL AS 3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONFIRMS IT. THIS PATCH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. BY THE TIME OF MAX
HEATING...THE GFS MODEL HAS THIS PATCH OF MOISTURE RIGHT OVER
PUERTO RICO AND MOVING WEST. FOR THAT REASON...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY DRY AIR WILL BE
MOVING IN...THERE WILL BE THOSE PATCHES OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS...LIKELY AFFECTING THE USVI
AND EASTERN PR DURING THE NIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY HELPING
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR. ISOLD SHRA BUT CHC OF LWR CONDS SLIM. WIND ESE
10-18 KT BCMG E BY EVE.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERESTIMATING SEAS A LITTLE
BIT. LOCAL SAN JUAN BUOY 40153 IS REPORTING SEAS OF 4 FEET WHILE
THE OUTER BUOY IS REPORTING SEAS OF JUST OVER 6 FEET. FOR THOSE
REASONS THE MARINE GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY...BRINGING THE
SEAS DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
HAVING SAID THIS...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY TOMORROW. THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS THE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE USVI MAY OBSERVE SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
TODAY...THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 83 72 / 20 30 30 20
STT 84 73 84 73 / 10 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST SUN FEB 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION WHILE ERODE RAPIDLY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...
MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH EMERGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SEABOARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. THIS GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL PRODUCE FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE
NIGHTS. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO INDUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO EACH AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST WHILE ERODE RAPIDLY EARLY
IN THE WEEK. THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE ALSO TO THE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL EMERGE TOWARD THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. DUE TO THE
EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 50 PERCENT AND WINDS GREATER
THAN 15 MPH FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL FOR
THE MONA ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 17/12Z. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAINS AT 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS AT 18
KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE ZONES. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 71 84 / 30 30 20 20
STT 73 84 73 84 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
941 PM AST SUN FEB 16 2014

.UPDATE...STRONG CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO ENTER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE
EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE BY TUESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN TIGHTEN.
PRESENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY ERODE AS A BROAD POLAR TROUGH SWEEPS EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP INDUCE A HIGH ZONAL/WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND MAINTAIN FAIRLY
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS BEING TRANSPORTED WESTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
AND QUICKLY APPROACHING THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO REACH PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
AND THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATEST TJSJ 17/00Z SOUNDING AS WELL AS BLENDED TPW SUGGESTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS STILL AROUND 1.10 INCHES WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW 800 MILLIBARS. THEREFORE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF PERIODS OF EARLY
MORNING PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WHICH WILL AFFECT MAINLY PARTS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE
WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST.