Texas Winter 2013-2014

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Ntxw
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#8341 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:57 am

Strong burst of convection have appeared at the international dateline with the westerlies. This associated with the recent negative SOI which is very close to a tank. You know the drill, 5-10 days a big storm will likely effect the continental US. GOA trough and that tropical burst likely will connect as ridging is becoming more apparent to arrive beneath Alaska

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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8342 Postby TexasStorm » Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:00 am

One thing this warm up will do since it looks to be longer lived than the last few is melt the snow/ice pack to our north.
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#8343 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:04 am

In all honesty, i mentioned it last night, i think there will be a big blast in March. One last hurrah. May not bring snow/ice to us in SE Tx, but something that sweeps though, gives us a classic clear night 2 nights after the front and ahhhhh blowing smoke when i walk out the door with ice on the roofs!!!! :)
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Re:

#8344 Postby gboudx » Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:49 am

TheProfessor wrote::uarrow: what do you mean? I have lived in this area for 17 years. And im almost sure Dallas' average snow fall total is right around 4 inches. (That might be counting ice and sleet though)


I see Ntwx explained the average snow questions. My mistake on how long you've lived here. I thought you said you lived in Kansas and moved here recently. Reading comprehension isn't my strongest quality. :)
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#8345 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:00 pm

Back to back morning that we had light frost on the roofs and cars.....Forecast high for the weekend is 80+ and for Monday is 88, let Spring begin! :sun:
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#8346 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:12 pm

Rgv20 wrote:Back to back morning that we had light frost on the roofs and cars.....Forecast high for the weekend is 80+ and for Monday is 88, let Spring begin! :sun:

My goodness. 88. I hope it is a LOOOOOONNNNNNNNGGGGG time before we see temps that high.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8347 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:46 pm

Plotted a couple of Houston meteograms off the 12Z GFS. First time the GFS is predicting 80F in the 2-meter raw temps (not MOS guidance):

Image

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#8348 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:12 pm

Well if there is going to be a storm that could produce winter weather, it would not surprise me if it occurred right before the final four, which is at At&t Cowboy stadium. (The final four might be in early April, I can't remember) :D
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#8349 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:20 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Well if there is going to be a storm that could produce winter weather, it would not surprise me if it occurred right before the final four, which is at At&t Cowboy stadium. (The final four might be in early April, I can't remember) :D


April 5, 2014.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8350 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:Plotted a couple of Houston meteograms off the 12Z GFS. First time the GFS is predicting 80F in the 2-meter raw temps (not MOS guidance).


Not 80. Please not 80. Wait, won't the cool waters of the Gulf make that hard to hit?
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8351 Postby gboudx » Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:37 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Plotted a couple of Houston meteograms off the 12Z GFS. First time the GFS is predicting 80F in the 2-meter raw temps (not MOS guidance):


Not 80. Please not 80. Wait, won't the cool waters of the Gulf make that hard to hit?


It may depend on wind direction.
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#8352 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Feb 13, 2014 2:31 pm

:cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8353 Postby Tcu101 » Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:02 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Plotted a couple of Houston meteograms off the 12Z GFS. First time the GFS is predicting 80F in the 2-meter raw temps (not MOS guidance):

Not 80. Please not 80. Wait, won't the cool waters of the Gulf make that hard to hit?


I remember when I worked in Houston after hurricane IKE , in March it would be almost 75 to 80 degrees in Pearland and I would drive down to Galveston and it would be almost chilly. Guess it depends how far from the water you are + wind direction to how it effects temps .
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8354 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:41 pm

Portastorm wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I think it's quite likely that Houston has seen its lasts freeze of this winter. I'm not talking about Conroe, as they'll probably have another 20 freezes (well, maybe 1 more in Conroe). Don't know why they're so much colder than Bush airport. A zonal flow pattern isn't conducive to very cold temps and winter precip, and that zonal flow pattern should last through the end of February and into March. Time to hand up the coat in the back of the closet and get those short-sleeved shirts out! :boog:


So, based on your comments above, I assume you are discounting the highest scoring computer model out there ... the European? The Euro deterministic model for several runs now breaks down the zonal pattern around the 22nd-23rd and has a major storm in the Southern Plains at that time.


One last winter hurrah for North TX? Or cold rain? (yea I know it's the 10 days out just wanna get a feel)
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#8355 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:41 pm

:uarrow: I think that second part of the quote is supposed to be in the bigger box. Unless wxman57 decided he doesn't want the heat anymore, or the more likely solution of 80 degrees isn't hot enough for him and he wants it hotter. :lol:

Edit: I mean the post that is above the one above mine.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8356 Postby Portastorm » Thu Feb 13, 2014 3:49 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I think it's quite likely that Houston has seen its lasts freeze of this winter. I'm not talking about Conroe, as they'll probably have another 20 freezes (well, maybe 1 more in Conroe). Don't know why they're so much colder than Bush airport. A zonal flow pattern isn't conducive to very cold temps and winter precip, and that zonal flow pattern should last through the end of February and into March. Time to hand up the coat in the back of the closet and get those short-sleeved shirts out! :boog:


So, based on your comments above, I assume you are discounting the highest scoring computer model out there ... the European? The Euro deterministic model for several runs now breaks down the zonal pattern around the 22nd-23rd and has a major storm in the Southern Plains at that time.


One last winter hurrah for North TX? Or cold rain? (yea I know it's the 10 days out just wanna get a feel)


Could be either one ... could be nothing. Today's 12z European operational (deterministic) run backed off the scenario.

I'd pay attention to some of what Ntxw, orangeblood, and srainhoutx post on longer range stuff. They're good. And, of course, the Heat Miser himself, wxman57.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8357 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:20 pm

Well the long range trends are beginning to look good for the cold mongers...Euro is coming around towards the GFS in the 8-10 day range showing very cold air building across Western Canada, pressing south into the central plains. What is really puzzling on the long range Euro Control is the warmth winning the battle, showing the cold retreating back north in the longer term - looks very puzzling to me. Has this happened even once all winter? Don't think so - until the pattern proves us otherwise, I wouldn't bet against the NE Pacific/Alaskan Ridge and cold winning the battle at least through February.



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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8358 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:39 pm

orangeblood wrote:Well the long range trends are beginning to look good for the cold mongers...Euro is coming around towards the GFS in the 8-10 day range showing very cold air building across Western Canada, pressing south into the central plains. What is really puzzling on the long range Euro Control is the warmth winning the battle, showing the cold retreating back north in the longer term - looks very puzzling to me. Has this happened even once all winter? Don't think so - until the pattern proves us otherwise, I wouldn't bet against the NE Pacific/Alaskan Ridge and cold winning the battle at least through February.



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Looks decent. Don't worry the models are in zonal mode right now. I knew the ensembles and signals were on to something a couple of days ago, now the OP's are the last to catch on. Lack of zonal flow in that period doesn't allow the cold to stop, the ensembles keep pressing the trof in the mountain west and plains. Lets root for the euro control 5h, big bad -EPO dominating again on that thing. Heh how about that warm pool resurgence?
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#8359 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Feb 13, 2014 4:49 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Well the long range trends are beginning to look good for the cold mongers...Euro is coming around towards the GFS in the 8-10 day range showing very cold air building across Western Canada, pressing south into the central plains. What is really puzzling on the long range Euro Control is the warmth winning the battle, showing the cold retreating back north in the longer term - looks very puzzling to me. Has this happened even once all winter? Don't think so - until the pattern proves us otherwise, I wouldn't bet against the NE Pacific/Alaskan Ridge and cold winning the battle at least through February.



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Looks decent. Don't worry the models are in zonal mode right now. I knew the ensembles and signals were on to something a couple of days ago, now the OP's are the last to catch on. Lack of zonal flow in that period doesn't allow the cold to stop, the ensembles keep pressing the trof in the mountain west and plains. Lets root for the euro control 5h, big bad -EPO dominating again on that thing. Heh how about that warm pool resurgence?



Snow in March. Can you believe it? Yes...:)
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#8360 Postby dhweather » Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:10 pm

We've had one inch of rain this year, and there's a good chance that's all the rain we will get for the first two months of 2014. :roll:
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