WPAC: FAXAI - Tropical Storm

[jaguarjace]

2.0N 151.0E

[euro6208]

93W INVEST 140217 0000 3.0N 151.4E WPAC 15 1010

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Isn't this the one forecast to be a typhoon?

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.9N
146.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT
HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SHEARED
NORTHWARD OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
(25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS AROUND THE
RIDGE IS CREATING A VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS SUSTAINING
THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM BEYOND
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STRENGTH. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA,
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.9N
146.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT
HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SHEARED
NORTHWARD OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
(25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS AROUND THE
RIDGE IS CREATING A VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS SUSTAINING
THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM BEYOND
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STRENGTH. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA,
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

In my opinion, I don't know why but GFS has been very consistent with a strong typhoon developing long-range. Not sure about the track though.

[hurricanes1234]

The WPAC thus far for 2014 has not produced anything but weak and sheared systems. I am not saying that's bad, but the fact the models aren't developing this makes me think it's just going to be another short-lived system. However, this is only my opinion.

[euro6208]

The WPAC thus far for 2014 has not produced anything but weak and sheared systems. I am not saying that's bad, but the fact the models aren't developing this makes me think it's just going to be another short-lived system. However, this is only my opinion.

Well it is only february and strong storms are uncommon at this time of year also we are in the slowest months climatologically, february and march.

In my opinion, I don't know why but GFS has been very consistent with a strong typhoon developing long-range. Not sure about the track though.

Yeah still trying to develop a 979 mb typhoon that skirts guam as a developing TS then strengthens at a faster pace near palau before being ejected out from the Philippine Sea.

Is this the system? I'm not sure.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The 30+Celsius sea surface temperatures can fuel this storm and the decreasing shear in the limited area.

[euro6208]

850mb is improving.



nice looking rotating moisture envelop

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Visayas track? Bad for stormstrike and us here. This is the 06Z run.



A typhoon was shown in the Sunday runs on and off and 5 runs consecutively the past 2 days.

[euro6208]

93W INVEST 140218 1200 6.6N 149.0E WPAC 15 1010

Not much change in intensity. Strong convection displaced east due to shear and Chuuk is right below it.

[stormkite]

ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZFEB2014//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.9N
146.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT
HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SHEARED
NORTHWARD OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
(25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS AROUND THE
RIDGE IS CREATING A VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS SUSTAINING
THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM BEYOND
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STRENGTH. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA,
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[ManilaTC]

Best Track Data
93W INVEST 140219 0000 7.0N 152.0E WPAC 15 1010

---------------------------------

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
559 AM CHST WED FEB 19 2014

<snip> INVEST AREA 93W WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS
AND GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INDICATES THAT 93W WILL SLOWLY
DEVELOP AND MOVE ROUGHLY TOWARD NORTHWEST.<snip>

---------------------------------

[stormkite]

93W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 19, 2014:

Location: 7.5°N 151.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N
148.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 43 NM WEST OF
CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD,
ELONGATED, AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS
INVARIABLY BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A
181310Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS. THE ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION IS
BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS 07 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE ARE ALSO CREATING A SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT
IS SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS
SYSTEM BEYOND TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STRENGTH. BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETRY DATA, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[dexterlabio]

The WPAC thus far for 2014 has not produced anything but weak and sheared systems. I am not saying that's bad, but the fact the models aren't developing this makes me think it's just going to be another short-lived system. However, this is only my opinion.

I guess you haven't checked the models yet, even the Euro is hinting a tropical low developing next week, albeit weak. BUT I think that the models, particularly the GFS, might be overestimating this phantom storm...the same way they did with Lingling and Kajiki.. Lingling, in particular, was forecast to become a super typhoon by the GFS model at some point..that's acceptable though because it was all in the long range forecast...

[ManilaTC]

The WPAC thus far for 2014 has not produced anything but weak and sheared systems. I am not saying that's bad, but the fact the models aren't developing this makes me think it's just going to be another short-lived system. However, this is only my opinion.

I guess you haven't checked the models yet, even the Euro is hinting a tropical low developing next week, albeit weak. BUT I think that the models, particularly the GFS, might be overestimating this phantom storm...the same way they did with Lingling and Kajiki.. Lingling, in particular, was forecast to become a super typhoon by the GFS model at some point..that's acceptable though because it was all in the long range forecast...

Yeah, probably models still have large error biases in terms of intensity... but look when GFS says a modest LPA/disturbance will form, voila! it does! GFS has been amazingly accurate and spot on in terms that there will be a tropical system forming over 2012, 2013 and going into 2014. I would say they are 4/4 this year...

GFS also called Yolanda/Haiyan early.

[dexterlabio]

^Agreed. Their prediction on the timing of tropical development was spot on. And yes I might be quite critical on this intense typhoon scenario but I'm still here checking for the possibilities.

[stormkite]

looks exactly as JTWC is portraying it.

Maybe some models are taking into account the MJO is forecast to move into phase 8 and that's why
GFS develop this disturbance.


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[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS on a super typhoon scenario.