SPAC: INVEST 92P (HADI Remnants)

[stormkite]

ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZMAR2014//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050151ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5S 152.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF
TURNING WITH BROKEN AND FLARING CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. A 042340Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE AREA IS HIGHLY
DISORGANIZED AND NO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGHLY
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING
GFS, ECMWF, AND NAVGEM, ARE AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE OVERALL CURRENT POOR STRUCTURE BUT
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[hurricanes1234]

Do you guys think it's possible we see a repeat of June earlier this season where the models developed it aggressively but it fizzled out early?

[stormkite]

Do you guys think it's possible we see a repeat of June earlier this season where the models developed it aggressively but it fizzled out early?

I was thinking the same myself when i seen the JTWC forecast. This model is the same as 94P weeks ago
only difference is now 96P penciled in instead. I notice as well JTWC points to the models to intensity maybe a indication it's not what they see atm. A few days will sort this out .


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[jaguarjace]

From JTWC:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
154.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 153.1E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ORGANIZATION
HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, YET REMAINED BROAD AND
ELONGATED, AS EVIDENT IN RECENT ASCAT DATA. A 061013Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPED INTO
THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE AREA FAVORS
DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING GFS, ECMWF, AND
NAVGEM, ARE AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Issued at 10:58 am EST Friday 7 March 2014.



Remarks:
The tropical low is expected to move in a west-southwest direction today before adopting a south-southwest
track during Saturday. The tropical low is expected to intensify into the weekend and it is anticipated it will
form into a tropical cyclone on Sunday.

GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Cairns and Mackay during Sunday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is possible about coastal and nearby adjacent inland areas
between Cooktown and Mackay from late Saturday and should persist into Sunday.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3S
149.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME COMPLETELY
EXPOSED AND LESS DEFINED AS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM AWAY FROM THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE TO
STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO HAMPER
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Hadi
Issued at 2:04 am EST Monday 10 March 2014.



Remarks:
TROPICAL CYCLONE Hadi, CATEGORY 1, has developed over the past 3 hours and is forecast to slowly
strengthen further over the next 12 to 24 hours. The cyclone is currently moving in an east to southeast
direction and should develop a northeasterly track during the day today. It is likely the cyclone will remain well
offshore of the coast.

GALES are expected to continue about central coast and island communities between Ayr and St Lawrence
during Monday.

Heavy rain is now less likely about the east coast, and the threat will ease further during Monday as the
cyclone continues to move away from the coast.

Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore between Ayr and St Lawrence. Tides will also be
higher than normal. People living in areas likely to be affected should take measures to protect their property
as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

[hurricanes1234]

Stormkite, it looks like we were right. The models have developed the system too much. I noticed this happened a lot this SHEM season.

[stormkite]

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10:46 am EST on Monday 10 March 2014
At 10 am EST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Hadi (Category 1) with central pressure
992 hPa was located
over the Coral Sea near latitude 18.6 south longitude 150.7 east, which is
about 270 km northeast of Hamilton Island and 365 km east northeast of Ayr.

Tropical Cyclone Hadi, CATEGORY 1, has developed overnight. The cyclone is
currently moving in an east southeast direction at about 4 kilometres per hour
and should develop a northeasterly track during the day today. The cyclone is
forecast to remain well offshore of the coast.

Damaging wind gusts have now eased along the east coast and adjacent islands.
Further gradual easing of winds is expected throughout today as the cyclone
moves away.

Heavy rain has now eased and is no longer expected to affect the Queensland
east coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 pm EST today.



Bom has been very hard to understand this season sat-pictures of what looked to be clear cyclones such as the one in the JGB was not named this one is named at 30 knots?

96P INVEST 140309 1800 18.4S 150.5E SHEM 30 1000

[euro6208]

WTPS33 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZMAR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 151.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.6S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.8S 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.2S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.8S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.4S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.7S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.1S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 151.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 100510Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS THE LLCC
MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF AMBIGUITY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED UPON THE INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION AS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS OFFSETTING STRONG TO MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC HADI IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG A WEAK PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
NER IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY RELAX, ALTHOUGH REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS, AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLOW INTENSIFICATION REACHING 55 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGELY SPREAD
WITH A 500NM SPREAD BY TAU 48. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 100200Z MAR
14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 100200). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Final Warning.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 156.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 163.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 575 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND
ILL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING AND
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 120424Z SSMI IMAGE REVEALS A DISORGANIZED
STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME VERY POORLY DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
(20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[cycloneye]

92P INVEST 140314 1800 13.0S 175.0E SHEM 15 NA

[jaguarjace]

I think this thread could be merged with the Hadi thread and the subject title could be SPAC: INVEST 92P (HADI - Remnants) or similar.

[cycloneye]

Merged.

[Alyono]

not sure this will be renamed Hadi. Isn't thas now in the Fijian TCWC AOR? Thus, since it did not maintain itself as a TC, wouldn't it get the next Fijian name?

[jaguarjace]

TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 - DAY OUTLOOK
Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W
Issue Time: 0400 UTC Saturday 15th March 2014
Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC Nadi.

Tuesday 18th March
Tropical Disturbance 20F is expected to move further west wards but have low potential to form into a
tropical cyclone.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/tc_outlook.pdf
---
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:58 pm EST on Saturday 15 March 2014
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 18 March 2014.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region. However, at 1pm EST Saturday,
ex-tropical cyclone Hadi was situated to the east of Vanuatu and moving in a
general westwards direction. Ex-tropical cyclone Hadi is expected to move back
into the region on Tuesday, though it is only forecast to re-enter as a tropical
low.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday: Very low
Monday: Very low
Tuesday: Low

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
170.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 170.7E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST
OF VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS
ROTATING ABOUT A CENTROID (THE CURRENT POSITION) WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 160336Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS TWO
DISTINCT SMALL LLCCS WITH OVERALL WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 152132Z
ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS AND SHOWS 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6S
170.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 165.8E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST OF
VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 170250Z NOAA-19 IMAGE
INDICATES AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK BANDING, SURROUNDED BY DRY
AIR. A PARTIAL 162254Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3S
165.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 159.4E, APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED AND POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH ISOLATED AND FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.