ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Here is a good graphic of how it has been the evolution of the large warm pool in the subsurface and how the cold blue waters have been shrinking as time goes by.

[cycloneye]

Look how the blue cold waters are shrinking west of South America as the warm waters expand.

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like only a 50/50 shot of El Nino conditions by August/Sept/Oct:

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uplo ... igure1.gif

[Kingarabian]

Looks like only a 50/50 shot of El Nino conditions by August/Sept/Oct:

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uplo ... igure1.gif

Don't worry about the models right now.

Look at the SOI, PDO, SST, and ESPI. Those tell a lot more than what the models say.

[Ntxw]

Looks like only a 50/50 shot of El Nino conditions by August/Sept/Oct:

http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uplo ... igure1.gif

Don't worry about the models right now.

Look at the SOI, PDO, SST, and ESPI. Those tell a lot more than what the models say.

You also have to look at it in a probability point of view and not direct numbers. 50% but there are 3 states to Enso, thus they are saying of the 3 the highest probably for that period is Nino. Odds have been slowly rising on them for the past few months.

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI continues to crash. The latest data is down to -5.6.

20140205,20140306,-5.6

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Ntxw]

Look how the blue cold waters are shrinking west of South America as the warm waters expand.

http://oi60.tinypic.com/2a0icrr.jpg

The PDO (reading is off the north Pacific) definitely has leaned to more +PDO look. Don't know how much but odds are the February reading will likely continue from the January reading, maybe not very positive but there nonetheless. It is very reminiscent as the warmth has spread more than just the NE Pacific but right down the west coast of North America to the tropics. From What I read does not include the southern hemisphere, but even here the cooling off Australia is spreading.



Typical +PDO configuration

[Ptarmigan]

Look how the blue cold waters are shrinking west of South America as the warm waters expand.

http://oi60.tinypic.com/2a0icrr.jpg

The PDO (reading is off the north Pacific) definitely has leaned to more +PDO look. Don't know how much but odds are the February reading will likely continue from the January reading, maybe not very positive but there nonetheless. It is very reminiscent as the warmth has spread more than just the NE Pacific but right down the west coast of North America to the tropics. From What I read does not include the southern hemisphere, but even here the cooling off Australia is spreading.

http://i60.tinypic.com/2rr9amw.gif

Typical +PDO configuration
http://i60.tinypic.com/14nixoi.png

Positive PDO is more favorable for El Nino. There can be strong Eastern Equatorial El Nino in negative PDO, like in 1972-1973.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[Ntxw]

Positive PDO is more favorable for El Nino. There can be strong Eastern Equatorial El Nino in negative PDO, like in 1972-1973.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

1972 Nino was such an interesting case. It was a powerful El Nino sandwiched in between intense La Nina's. The whole early 70s was -PDO driven. 1972 didn't actually feature a strong +PDO, it was weak to modest at best because of the Nino. Amazing that we got such a strong Nino in a severe -PDO time.

[dexterlabio]

For those who have knowledge about ENSO, do you think there's a high chance of a stronger El Nino this year compared to that of 2009? I don't remember that year showing the same features of a budding Nino at this early, particularly the large subsurface warm pool that we're seeing.

[Ntxw]

For those who have knowledge about ENSO, do you think there's a high chance of a stronger El Nino this year compared to that of 2009? I don't remember that year showing the same features of a budding Nino at this early, particularly the large subsurface warm pool that we're seeing.

We will find out soon. The big Nino's (72, 82, 97, 57) all had very early starts. AMJ most of them began their first >0.5C+. Moderate El Nino's like 2009 and 1963 begins mid to late summer. Weaker El Nino's tends to start much later in the year into the fall. Once the current warm pool up wells at the end of this month and early next month we will get a good idea what it may have in store. For right now it has not up-welled so we do not know how it will effect the eastern basin. If we see ENSO regions start spiking 0.5-1C then it's a good sign a big one is coming in April and May. 97 started to rise in mid April after lots of (-)s in March and never looked back.

[CaliforniaResident]

When will we begin to see the direct affects?

[cycloneye]

When will we begin to see the direct affects?

It takes some time for the effects from El Nino to be seen. We are on the very early stage for one to form and is not known how strong nor what kind of event it may be (Modoki or Traditional) so until El Nino is officially declared is a waiting game.

[cycloneye]

The latest updated loop until March 4 speaks for itself.

[Ntxw]

Still slowly morphing that horseshoe of warmth in the Eastern North Pacific, cooler western Pacific (weak +PDO) look. Recent warming of the eastern tropical Pacific and the remaining surface cold waters about to be pushed out. Is it getting the red carpet out for the sub-surface to come? Lots of questions wanting answers!



Compare it to the 2012 non Nino with a raging -PDO. Horseshoe of cold off NA.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,you were right as 30 day SOI reached -6.0.

20140206,20140307,-6.0

[cycloneye]

This graphic of the sub-surface waters is good because it has the numbers of warm and cold waters. This will be a slow process as those warm waters rise to the surface.Let's see how warm it gets on the Nino areas in the next few weeks.

[gatorcane]

"El Nino" watch Article released a few days ago by NWS Miami:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf

As Wxman57 pointed out a few pages back, El nino certainly does not mean a diminished threat of hurricane hits to the Caribbean and U.S...

[Ntxw]

It's getting ready to up-well. This is classic signature El Nino imprint below the surface. Cold waters emerging deep in the far far west. Deep, large warm pool that continues to expand. The buoy data above shows mass of warmth getting ready to be shoved south (0.5C or greater). The greens and blues SST's have all but disappeared near and at the surface. Anything below 0C is about to become history as most of the tropical Pacific is at or greater than 0C except little pockets in the far east. Once it up-wells this thing is going to sustain itself for months. Thru at least June if not July.





Nino 4 is there, Nino 3 is rising. These two set trends for 3.4 as the name suggests. You could even argue 2006 and 2009 weren't as large a warm pool as this one in their peaks.

[cycloneye]

It's getting ready to up-well. This is classic signature El Nino imprint below the surface. Cold waters emerging deep in the far far west. Deep, large warm pool that continues to expand. The buoy data above shows mass of warmth getting ready to be shoved south (0.5C or greater). The greens and blues SST's have all but disappeared near and at the surface. Anything below 0C is about to become history as most of the tropical Pacific is at or greater than 0C except little pockets in the far east. Once it up-wells this thing is going to sustain itself for months. Thru at least June if not July.

http://i60.tinypic.com/14smcg9.gif

http://i60.tinypic.com/16jljix.gif

Nino 4 is there, Nino 3 is rising. These two set trends for 3.4 as the name suggests.

And after that period,new wind bursts will seal the deal to reinforce.