Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Beautiful sunrise in the central mountains of PR.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH HOLDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFFECTED THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY. THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BROUGHT WITH IT THESE
SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL...LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED. THESE FRAGMENT OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FOR
TOMORROW A BIGGER PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
REGION...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...THE BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL BRING SCT SHRA TO ALL TAF
SITES...WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE EXCEPT AT TJPS AND TJSJ AND
EXCEPT FOR TJMZ WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ARND 07/22Z.
LLVL WINDS ESE 10 TO 20 KT. AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS TO CONT THRU
PD IN PUERTO RICO. PATTERN WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST 08/22Z WITH
CLRG FROM THE EAST LATE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BETTER HUMIDITIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL
LESSEN THE FIRE RISK CONSIDERABLY. CLOUDY AND SHOWERY SATURDAY. STILL
SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON OVR SW PR. VERY DRY ALL OF
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 83 / 40 40 20 20
STT 74 84 73 83 / 30 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SAT NIGHT AS
SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC. A SHEARLINE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN WITH SHIFTING WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENING/LIFTING
TO 650 MB ON SAT ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE REGION
AS WEAK WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES ENTER THE REGION. EXPECT GENERALLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT ABOUT EVERYWHERE. SOMEWHAT
DRYER EXPECTED ON SUN AS WINDS TURN MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH
PASSAGE OF SHEARLINE. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO CLUSTER OVER SW PR SUN
AFTERNOON. FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL MOST OF NEXT WEEK UNDER
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TJPS AFT 07/13Z. SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS NW PR
BTWN 07/18Z-23Z. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE ESE AT 5 TO 10
KTS...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER 07/13Z BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. NO HAZARDS EXPECTED ATTM
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 72 83 / 10 50 20 20
STT 76 84 75 83 / 20 40 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and VI today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING OVER
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SHIFTING EAST NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES FURTHER EAST AND A SHERLINE
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST. REMNANTS OF AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND WINDWARD AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.

CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ABOUT EVERYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WORK WEEK...WEATHER SCENARIO CHANGE WITH A GENERALLY FAIR
AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED AS THE RESULT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA WITH A
SUBSIDENT PATTERN AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATE
NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION CANT BE
RULED ON SUNDAY. OVERALL...FAIR WX WILL THEN PREVAIL MOST OF NEXT
WEEK UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...APPROACHING CLOUDS/SHRA MAY CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDS
FOR THE USVI...TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ THIS MORNING...THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND SHRA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CIGS MOSTLY AT AROUND
FL050-060 WITH TEMPO CIGS AT FL020-030 POSSIBLE. SCT SHRA ACROSS
THE PR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...CAUSING AT LEAST VCSH WITH POSSIBLE TEMPO SHRA. EAST
TO ESE WINDS EXPECTED AT AROUND 10KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 08/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. NNW SWELLS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS ON TUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 71 / 50 20 20 20
STT 84 75 84 73 / 40 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHWEST
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE WEST CAUSING FLOW OVER THE AREA TO BECOME WEST NORTHWEST BY
EARLY IN THE WEEK. AFTER A RIDGE PASSES BY MID-WEEK A 60 PLUS KNOT
JET STREAK WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY IN THE WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. MOISTURE PATCHES IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN DUE TO A STRONGER
RETREATING LOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILL-IN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA AND JOIN THE
OLD HIGH IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAW
NEAR ON SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS FLOW CONTINUED FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND VEERED TO THE WEST
UP THROUGH 25 KFT. TODAY`S MOISTURE LAYER DRIED ABRUPTLY NEAR 9 KFT
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.32 INCHES THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FLOW AT 850 MB BECOMES NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND BEGIN TO REVERSE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
AGAIN BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS PATCHY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS
WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN. DUE TO THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART...BUT MVFR
CONDS WILL NOT END AT TJMZ UNTIL AFT 08/22Z. MVFR AT TJSJ IS
EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND END BEFORE 08/20Z. ANY MVFR AT TIST WILL
BE BRIEF. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW AND WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BUT SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 TO 5 FEET IN EXPOSED
WATERS. SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN SWELL FROM A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON
THURSDAY ARRIVE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN
THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 71 80 / 20 20 10 20
STT 74 83 73 83 / 20 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 PM AST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON MON AS STRONG
WESTERLIES ESTABLISH NORTH OF 20N. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SUN WITH SHIFTING WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE OVER PR THIS EVENING
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES BY
MORNING. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA SUN WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND FOCUSING AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHWEST PR. GRADUAL DRYING EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS TURN
MORE EASTERLY ON WED BUT STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ALLOW
ANY SIG MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDINESS
WILL INCREASE AND SHRA WILL MOVE IN AND OUT MAINLY AT TJPS AND TJMZ
AFTER 09/16Z. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT...THEN AFTER
09/13Z...MAINLY FROM THE NE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. NNW SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO ARRIVE INTO THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS MON WITH SEAS
INCREASING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.39 INCHES WAS SET TODAY AT THE
CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT. THIS TIED THE OLD RECORD SET IN 2013.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 72 82 / 0 0 10 10
STT 75 83 72 83 / 20 10 10 10

[Macrocane]

March is still the dry season in Central America, and our dry season is actually pretty dry but a late season cold front interacting with a mid level trough produced heavy rainfall in northern Central America in the last few days causing March 2014 to be one of the wettest March on record. This is the March 2014 rainfall in some stations of El Salvador compared to climatology:

Acajutla
Normal Monthly Rainfall: 12 mm
March 2014: 53 mm

Los Naranjos
Normal Monthly Rainfall: 20 mm
March 2014: 33 mm

San Salvador
Normal Monthly Rainfall: 14 mm
March 2014: 19 mm

San Miguel
Normal Monthly Rainfall: 4 mm
March 2014: 23.3 mm

La Unión:
Normal Monthly Rainfall: 5.9 mm
March 2014: 19.4 mm

Santiago de María
Normal Monthly Rainfall: 20 mm
March 2014: 61 mm

Sensuntepeque
Normal Monthly Rainfall: 17 mm
March 2014: 70 mm

Puente Cuscatlán (This station has already received 1052% of the normal March rainfall)
Normal Monthly Rainfall: 6.5 mm
March 2014: 75 mm


In Guatemala the story is not different, and Guatemala city has already had its wettest March on record:
Normal March Rainfall: 11 mm
March 2014: 60 mm
Previous record: 53 mm March 1987

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only isolated showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A BRIEF FLATTENING TODAY AND
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS OVER WATERS...
BUT NONE OVER LAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH
THE AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE COMBINING WITH LOCAL EFFECT TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST PR. A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AS RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA WITH A DRYING TREND
AND SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS CANT
BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LINGERING MOISTURE
OF THE SHEARLINE REMAINS NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...FAIR WX
WILL THEN PREVAIL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WORK WEEK UNDER GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJPS AND THE VICINITY OF TJMZ WHERE SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AFTER 09/16Z. THE DEVELOPING SHRA COULD BRING
VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20KTS...TEMPO CIGS AT FL020-030...AND
SHRA/+SHRA...LIKELY OVER TJPS AND ACROSS THE VICINITY OF
TJMZ...CAUSING MVFR CONDS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE. AFTER 09/13Z
...SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO ESE BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. NNW SWELLS WILL
BEGIN TO ARRIVE INTO THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW WITH SEAS
INCREASING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 71 82 71 / 0 10 10 0
STT 83 74 83 74 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Beautiful sunrise in PR.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE UNTIL THE JET STREAM TO OUR NORTH
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH NEAR 70 KNOT WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS NEXT WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT TO
CENTRAL AMERICA ALLOWING LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY...LESS THAN 25 PERCENT
RH...UNTIL MID WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA
BEFORE DISSIPATING OR MOVING NORTH EARLY THIS WEEK. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR LOCAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON
MONDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LEAVE THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS
OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS APPEARED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WEST. SHOWERS
DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN. AS MUCH AS ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCH FELL IN A FEW
SPOTS OF THE MUNICIPALITIES OF MAYAGUEZ AND LAS MARIAS AS
CONVERGENCE BUILT CONVECTION OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LIGHT
WINDS AND AN AREA OF LOWER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
REDUCE RAINFALL PROBABILITIES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN WE WILL
EXPERIENCE A GRADUAL INCREASE TO LEVELS SEEN DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVED. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
GENERALLY REDUCED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER MOISTURE
RETURNING SLOWLY FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAKER AS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURES ALTERNATE
MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS CHANGES LITTLE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJPS AND THE VICINITY OF TJMZ WHERE SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY UNTIL 10/00Z. THE DEVELOPING SHRA COULD BRING
VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS...TEMPO CIGS AT
FL020-030...AND SHRA/+SHRA...LIKELY OVER TJPS AND ACROSS THE
VICINITY OF TJMZ...CAUSING MVFR CONDS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BEFORE
10/04Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA...BUT A WEAK
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 80 70 81 / 10 10 0 0
STT 72 83 72 83 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
915 PM AST SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE STRONG WESTERLIES DOMINATE NORTH
OF 20N.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRYING ALREADY OCCURRING THIS EVENING WITH PW DOWN
TO 1.32 INCHES WITH FURTHER DRYING EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS
STRONG ZONAL FLOW PREVENTS ANY SIG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA. LATEST CFSV2 CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF A LONG
STRETCH OF ABNORMALLY DRY WEATHER BEGINNING TUE AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MARCH 23RD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
TONIGT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE
03/09 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED WINDS MAINLY FROM THE E TO NE AT AROUND
5 KTS FROM SFC UP TO NEAR 7 KFT...BECOMING VARIABLE FROM 5 TO 20 KTS
UP TO 20 KFT ABOVE 7 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE NW SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. A SECOND GROUP OF NNW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
REACH THE LOCAL WATERS MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALL RAWS IN PR AND USVI PICKED UP SOME GOOD RAINS
PAST 24 HRS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE MON BUT AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LESS. BEGINNING WED...AREA APPEARS
TO BE IN STORE FOR A LONG STRETCH OF DRY WX WITH FIRE DANGER
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS STRENGTHEN AND FUELS DRY OUT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 73 82 / 0 0 0 0
STT 76 83 75 83 / 0 10 0 0

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR and VI.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
AND A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK SHEAR LINE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH AND STALL...THEN DISSIPATE JUST NORTH OF PR LATER TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND DOMINATE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK SHEAR LINE TO THE NNW OF PR WERE DETECTED BY THE RADAR.
MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AS THE SHEAR LINE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH...CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AS WELL
AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.

LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BE PRESENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...CAUSING ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THAT AREA. THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND EASTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. FORECAST SOUNDING FOR 12Z TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY...ALL ELSE BEING VERY
SIMILAR...PERSISTENCE WAS CONSIDERED ALONG WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SHEAR LINE DISSIPATES...LINGERING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WHILE ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
COULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTER SECTIONS OF PR...BUT MAYBE
WITH THE SHOWERS BEING LIGHTER AND THE COVERAGE BEING LESS TO WHAT
IS EXPECTED TODAY. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS THE WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE AND SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SHRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TJPS AND
TJMZ BETWEEN 10/16Z AND 10/22Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE ENE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS A NORTHERLY SWELL INVADES THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY. SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD HAVE SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHERE ANOTHER NORTHERLY SWELL APPEARS TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 83 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 83 72 83 74 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
AND A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK SHEAR LINE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH AND STALL...THEN DISSIPATE JUST NORTH OF PR LATER TODAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND DOMINATE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WEAK SHEAR LINE
MOVED CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE
PUSHING MOST ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS THE SHEAR LINE STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME
TO TIME. IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE EASTERN U.S COAST NEXT FRIDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT JPS AND JMZ UNTIL 10/23Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS A NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD HAVE SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE ANOTHER NORTHERLY SWELL APPEARS TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 73 82 / 20 20 20 20
STT 72 83 74 84 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The mainly dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI with some afternoon showers in interior PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED AS THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE BAHAMAS KEEPS US WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHEAR LINE
DISSIPATED...LEAVING US WITH LIMITED MOISTURE BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY ABOUT 1.2 INCHES BY 18Z TODAY.
HAVING SAID THAT...THE INTERIOR...WESTERN AND THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OR PR MAY OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.

STARTING LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE EAST AND WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A LITTLE...CAUSING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND SHIFTING THEM TO A
MORE EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS SHIFT WILL
THEN CAUSE SHOWERS ACROSS NW PR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS DURING THE
NIGHT TIME HOURS...AND IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE AFTERNOONS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SHRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TJPS AND
TJMZ BETWEEN 11/16Z AND 11/22Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE ENE
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS A NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
SEAS WILL BE AT 5 FEET OR LESS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHERE ANOTHER NORTHERLY SWELL APPEARS TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 84 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 83 72 84 74 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
218 PM AST TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE
EAST NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE EXIT THE EASTERN
U.S. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
MOVE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH AFFECTED THE LOCAL AREA YESTERDAY...HAS WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY LAST 24 HOURS...AND ONLY SOME CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. PLEASANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE ENDS OF THE WEEK...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATES THE REGION.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL...DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE U.S EAST COAST NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...APPROACHING HISPANIOLA BY THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITHOUT AFFECTING THE
LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA WILL
INDUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIST AND TISX UNTIL
11/22Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...LOCA BUOYS ARE SHOWING SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS. IN
GENERAL...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 85 / 20 20 20 20
STT 72 84 74 84 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Dry weather will prevail today in PR and VI with only isolated showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
THROUGH FRI. AMPLIFLYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR ERN NOAM WILL
BRING A CDFNT TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA SAT. A SHEARLINE WILL
PRECEDE THIS FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND EAST SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY PROMOTING AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVR WRN AND NW PR AS
OPPOSED TO THE SOUTH COAST LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS. A SHEARLINE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHEAST BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND FOCUSING ISOLD SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH COAST SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVR THE REGION
SUN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. SIG DRYING EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD
AS A RESULT. THIS WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH A SURGE IN TRADE WINDS
AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS WEST OF BERMUDA AND INCREASE THE FIRE
DANGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU THU XCP MVFR IN ISOLD SHRA...SCT OVR W PR THIS
AFT WI FEW OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL100 NE-SE UNDER 15 KT THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING 2-3 FT BY FRI. LARGE NW SWELLS WILL THEN BEGIN TO REACH
THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT IN ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE LOW
PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 74 / 10 10 10 0
STT 84 76 84 76 / 10 20 20 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS..WILL MOVE
EAST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE CLOSE
TO THE AREA SATURDAY. A SHEARLINE WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED...WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THEREFORE...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ONLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL EXIT THE EASTERN U.S. COAST TONIGHT...AND WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL
NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THEREFORE..AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER SHRA AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJBQ AND
TJMZ UNTIL 12/22Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LARGE NW SWELLS WILL THEN BEGIN TO REACH
THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT IN ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE LOW
PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST TONIGHT.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 73 83 / 10 10 0 0
STT 73 84 74 85 / 20 20 0 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1020 PM AST WED MAR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LOOSEN THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXITING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SEABOARD THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL INDUCE A LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND FLOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY WHILE
DISSIPATING. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHALLOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION IN A
PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN
BUILD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
OVERALL SCENARIO WILL RESULT COOL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS EACH DAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another mainly dry weather day is expected today in PR and VI with only isolated showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 AM AST THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY. CDFNT
EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG 20N DURING THE WEEKEND THEN DISSIPATE
BY MON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY THEN BEGIN
TO YIELD TO DEEP POLAR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT EXITING THE
EAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE
ISOLD AND CONFINED TO NORTHWEST PR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE FRI WITH PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROF/SHEARLINE FOCUSING
SHOWERS OVR SOUTHWEST PR. BEST MOISTURE EXPECTED ON SAT AS CDFNT
APPROACHES 20N WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AGAIN ON THE SOUTH COAST.
FRONT DISSIPATES BY MON.

TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA EARLY SUN WITH GRADUAL DRYING
THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. SHARP DRYING
INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS MON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVR
THE REGION. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN MON AS MODERATELY STRONG
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A SIG INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER MON THRU
WED OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA IN CARIBBEAN THIS MRNG TO MOV WWD 50 NM OR
MORE S OF LCL ISLANDS. OTHW XPCT VFR OVR AREA WI ISOLD SHRA THRU
FRI...MOSTLY NOT LWRG CONDS BUT PSBL MVFR AT TJMZ IN AFT. WIND BLO
FL100 NE-SE 5-15 KT THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-3 FT TODAY THRU SAT MORNING THEN BEGIN TO BUILD
SAT AFTERNOON IN LARGE NORTH SWELLS. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ATLC
OFFSHORE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 76 / 0 0 0 0
STT 84 77 84 76 / 0 10 10 0

[cycloneye]

Beautiful sunrise in San Juan.