Expert forecasts for 2014 N Atl Hurricane season

[cycloneye]

A good analog for the upcoming 2014 N Atlantic season may be 1948?

[ninel conde]

i doubt we would have 4 major hurricanes this season. push those tracks 300 miles east in the atlantic. might have a gom landfall of some sort however.

[Bocadude85]

i doubt we would have 4 major hurricanes this season. push those tracks 300 miles east in the atlantic. might have a gom landfall of some sort however.

Why would the tracks need to be shifted 300 miles east??

[TheStormExpert]

A good analog for the upcoming 2014 N Atlantic season may be 1948?

http://oi61.tinypic.com/zunxhx.jpg

What are reasons and thoughts for 1948 being an analog for 2014?

[cycloneye]

A good analog for the upcoming 2014 N Atlantic season may be 1948?

http://oi61.tinypic.com/zunxhx.jpg

What are reasons and thoughts for 1948 being an analog for 2014?

The activity on both tracks and number of named systems.However,I don't think there will be four majors this season.

[Frank2]

I agree - after the past few seasons I'm of the "on the map" thinking from now on, just as we used to do 30 years ago...

[ninel conde]

i doubt we would have 4 major hurricanes this season. push those tracks 300 miles east in the atlantic. might have a gom landfall of some sort however.

Why would the tracks need to be shifted 300 miles east??

im looking for signs that we will once again have a protective trof for the coast from texas to maine. i see some, specifically the dry south central plains and lack of a severe weather season so far. nw flow is dominant yet again for the umpteenth year in a row off the east coast.

[tolakram]

i doubt we would have 4 major hurricanes this season. push those tracks 300 miles east in the atlantic. might have a gom landfall of some sort however.

Why would the tracks need to be shifted 300 miles east??

im looking for signs that we will once again have a protective trof for the coast from texas to maine. i see some, specifically the dry south central plains and lack of a severe weather season so far. nw flow is dominant yet again for the umpteenth year in a row off the east coast.

I'm still not buying into the protective trough idea, I think this is overplayed. This page ( http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20020901.html ) goes all the way back to Sept 1st 2002, a weak El Nino season that ended up at 12/4/2 with a couple of landfalls, but no major landfalls. If you step forward through September and then switch to 2013 and go through the maps you'll see a similar pattern. The east coast is generally protected every year, which is why east coast landfalls are so rare and recurving storms so common.

What 2013 was missing was opportunities for storms to form. We had setups that would have sent storms through the islands and into the gulf, but conditions were so hostile that nothing developed or anything that developed stayed weak or fell apart. You present the idea that all tracks should be shifted east, but why? Are you saying the trough is determining where and when storms develop?

I know I've harped on this before, but hurricane seasons and risk are all about odds (keep in mind I'm not a meteorologist. ) No season has perfect conditions 24/7. 2005 had good conditions more often than any other season and as a result had the most storms. 2013 had some of the worst conditions we've ever seen and the numbers and ACE show it. We should always remember 1992 as well. That season is a perfect example of how any season is basically rolling the dice. It only took a depression in the right place at the right time to come out of nowhere and shock everyone. The steering currents at the time happened to send Andrew into Florida since high pressure had just setup east of Virginia.

You need the djvu plugin to see the following links. https://www.cuminas.jp/en/downloads/download/?pid=1

Source page: http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdocmaps/daily_weather_maps.html

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1992/19920817-19920823.djvu

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1992/19920824-19920830.djvu

August 21st, 2013 ( http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20130821.html ) had a similar setup but, obviously, nothing developed.

This is one of the reasons I don't like predicting landfalls. Timing is everything.

[ninel conde]

ill stick by my thoughts. east coast trof=few landfalls. there were brief periods of opportunity last season, but as you say nothing happened.

[Bocadude85]

ill stick by my thoughts. east coast trof=few landfalls. there were brief periods of opportunity last season, but as you say nothing happened.

That's not entirely true. Storms that develop in the Caribbean can be drawn north and east and make landfall on the gulf coast or Florida. Look at the 1948 map that cycloneye posted, obviously there was a trough present that pulled those systems out of the Caribbean and over Florida.

[SouthFloridian92]

A good analog for the upcoming 2014 N Atlantic season may be 1948?

http://oi61.tinypic.com/zunxhx.jpg

That was when my town went through two major hurricanes within three weeks of each other. My grandma's told me stories about what they were like and how calm it was during the eye in the first hurricane.

[cycloneye]

CSU will continue to do forecasts as they got funding. The next one will be on April 10.

http://www.news.colostate.edu/Release/7210

[blp]

A good analog for the upcoming 2014 N Atlantic season may be 1948?

[img]http://oi61.tinypic.com/zunxhx.jpg

If El Nino does appear I would take storm #7 and #8 out because the El Nino season usually starts early and shuts down early especially in the SW carribean. Other than that looks like a good possible analog and matches the current SST profile.

[stephen23]

A good analog for the upcoming 2014 N Atlantic season may be 1948?

Another one may be 1969? 1969 shows hurricanes can form deep into the year even during El Nino Events. I think 1969 had hurricanes all the way into Nov. And even in an El Nino event 1969 had a cat 5 in the gulf (Camille).

[Hurricane Jed]

1969 really? I've heard it rumored that was possibly Modoki that season. The EPAC was also pretty slow that year.

[wxman57]

European model seasonal forecast indicates less activity from the eastern Caribbean to Africa and slightly increased activity (over normal) along the East U.S. Coast.

[RL3AO]

The hostility of the Caribbean, especially during the peak of the season the past few years is really impressive.

[blp]

European model seasonal forecast indicates less activity from the eastern Caribbean to Africa and slightly increased activity (over normal) along the East U.S. Coast.

That is why I am staying tuned in this season regardless of the overall numbers. The SST's are also backing up the Euro with warmer temps closer to the East Coast. This is a slightly different SST setup than the recent El Nino's. I am also particularily interested in the evolution of the Bermuda High. Will the E Coast troughs be weaker this year?

[blp]

A good analog for the upcoming 2014 N Atlantic season may be 1948?

[img]http://oi61.tinypic.com/zunxhx.jpg[]

Another one may be 1969? 1969 shows hurricanes can form deep into the year even during El Nino Events. I think 1969 had hurricanes all the way into Nov. And even in an El Nino event 1969 had a cat 5 in the gulf (Camille).

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/21/z2rl.[img]http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/5372/z2rl.jpg[/url]

1969 Camille was early in year which is typical El Nino and if you notice after late September most of the hurricane action was in the Mid lattitudes which is also typical. It is not common to get a lot of action out of the Carribean after September and if something happens it is weak rarely do we get majors late in the year. I do like the spread of tracks though just lower overall numbers.

Camille is great example of ideal conditions during an El Nino in a in an area close to land. It is the example worst case scenario for this upcoming year.

[stephen23]

A good analog for the upcoming 2014 N Atlantic season may be 1948?

[img]http://oi61.tinypic.com/zunxhx.jpg[]

Another one may be 1969? 1969 shows hurricanes can form deep into the year even during El Nino Events. I think 1969 had hurricanes all the way into Nov. And even in an El Nino event 1969 had a cat 5 in the gulf (Camille).

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/21/z2rl.[img]http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/5372/z2rl.jpg[/url]

1969 Camille was early in year which is typical El Nino and if you notice after late September most of the hurricane action was in the Mid lattitudes which is also typical. It is not common to get a lot of action out of the Carribean after September and if something happens it is weak rarely do we get majors late in the year. I do like the spread of tracks though just lower overall numbers.

Yes. Camille formed in Mid August